20,844 research outputs found
Bayesian forecasting and scalable multivariate volatility analysis using simultaneous graphical dynamic models
The recently introduced class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models
(SGDLMs) defines an ability to scale on-line Bayesian analysis and forecasting
to higher-dimensional time series. This paper advances the methodology of
SGDLMs, developing and embedding a novel, adaptive method of simultaneous
predictor selection in forward filtering for on-line learning and forecasting.
The advances include developments in Bayesian computation for scalability, and
a case study in exploring the resulting potential for improved short-term
forecasting of large-scale volatility matrices. A case study concerns financial
forecasting and portfolio optimization with a 400-dimensional series of daily
stock prices. Analysis shows that the SGDLM forecasts volatilities and
co-volatilities well, making it ideally suited to contributing to quantitative
investment strategies to improve portfolio returns. We also identify
performance metrics linked to the sequential Bayesian filtering analysis that
turn out to define a leading indicator of increased financial market stresses,
comparable to but leading the standard St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
(STLFSI) measure. Parallel computation using GPU implementations substantially
advance the ability to fit and use these models.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figures, 7 table
Collaborative Deep Learning for Recommender Systems
Collaborative filtering (CF) is a successful approach commonly used by many
recommender systems. Conventional CF-based methods use the ratings given to
items by users as the sole source of information for learning to make
recommendation. However, the ratings are often very sparse in many
applications, causing CF-based methods to degrade significantly in their
recommendation performance. To address this sparsity problem, auxiliary
information such as item content information may be utilized. Collaborative
topic regression (CTR) is an appealing recent method taking this approach which
tightly couples the two components that learn from two different sources of
information. Nevertheless, the latent representation learned by CTR may not be
very effective when the auxiliary information is very sparse. To address this
problem, we generalize recent advances in deep learning from i.i.d. input to
non-i.i.d. (CF-based) input and propose in this paper a hierarchical Bayesian
model called collaborative deep learning (CDL), which jointly performs deep
representation learning for the content information and collaborative filtering
for the ratings (feedback) matrix. Extensive experiments on three real-world
datasets from different domains show that CDL can significantly advance the
state of the art
Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions
We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of
multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for
decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis
problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating"
statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic,
simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the
decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using
classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio
utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock
index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical
utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table
Bayesian Matrix Completion via Adaptive Relaxed Spectral Regularization
Bayesian matrix completion has been studied based on a low-rank matrix
factorization formulation with promising results. However, little work has been
done on Bayesian matrix completion based on the more direct spectral
regularization formulation. We fill this gap by presenting a novel Bayesian
matrix completion method based on spectral regularization. In order to
circumvent the difficulties of dealing with the orthonormality constraints of
singular vectors, we derive a new equivalent form with relaxed constraints,
which then leads us to design an adaptive version of spectral regularization
feasible for Bayesian inference. Our Bayesian method requires no parameter
tuning and can infer the number of latent factors automatically. Experiments on
synthetic and real datasets demonstrate encouraging results on rank recovery
and collaborative filtering, with notably good results for very sparse
matrices.Comment: Accepted to AAAI 201
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