Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

A Deep Embedding Model for Co-occurrence Learning

Co-occurrence Data is a common and important information source in many areas, such as the word co-occurrence in the sentences, friends co-occurrence in social networks and products co-occurrence in commercial transaction data, etc, which contains rich correlation and clustering information about the items. In this paper, we study co-occurrence data using a general energy-based probabilistic model, and we analyze three different categories of energy-based model, namely, the $L_1$, $L_2$ and $L_k$ models, which are able to capture different levels of dependency in the co-occurrence data. We also discuss how several typical existing models are related to these three types of energy models, including the Fully Visible Boltzmann Machine (FVBM) ($L_2$), Matrix Factorization ($L_2$), Log-BiLinear (LBL) models ($L_2$), and the Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) model ($L_k$). Then, we propose a Deep Embedding Model (DEM) (an $L_k$ model) from the energy model in a \emph{principled} manner. Furthermore, motivated by the observation that the partition function in the energy model is intractable and the fact that the major objective of modeling the co-occurrence data is to predict using the conditional probability, we apply the \emph{maximum pseudo-likelihood} method to learn DEM. In consequence, the developed model and its learning method naturally avoid the above difficulties and can be easily used to compute the conditional probability in prediction. Interestingly, our method is equivalent to learning a special structured deep neural network using back-propagation and a special sampling strategy, which makes it scalable on large-scale datasets. Finally, in the experiments, we show that the DEM can achieve comparable or better results than state-of-the-art methods on datasets across several application domains

A nonparametric Bayesian approach toward robot learning by demonstration

In the past years, many authors have considered application of machine learning methodologies to effect robot learning by demonstration. Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) is one of the most successful methodologies used for this purpose. A major limitation of GMR models concerns automatic selection of the proper number of model states, i.e., the number of model component densities. Existing methods, including likelihood- or entropy-based criteria, usually tend to yield noisy model size estimates while imposing heavy computational requirements. Recently, Dirichlet process (infinite) mixture models have emerged in the cornerstone of nonparametric Bayesian statistics as promising candidates for clustering applications where the number of clusters is unknown a priori. Under this motivation, to resolve the aforementioned issues of GMR-based methods for robot learning by demonstration, in this paper we introduce a nonparametric Bayesian formulation for the GMR model, the Dirichlet process GMR model. We derive an efficient variational Bayesian inference algorithm for the proposed model, and we experimentally investigate its efficacy as a robot learning by demonstration methodology, considering a number of demanding robot learning by demonstration scenarios