Comment on `Tainted evidence: cosmological model selection versus fitting', by Eric V. Linder and Ramon Miquel (astro-ph/0702542v2)

In astro-ph/0702542v2, Linder and Miquel seek to criticize the use of Bayesian model selection for data analysis and for survey forecasting and design. Their discussion is based on three serious misunderstandings of the conceptual underpinnings and application of model-level Bayesian inference, which invalidate all their main conclusions. Their paper includes numerous further inaccuracies, including an erroneous calculation of the Bayesian Information Criterion. Here we seek to set the record straight.Comment: 6 pages RevTeX

Bayesian optimization for materials design

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as possible. We focus on the case when materials designs are parameterized by a low-dimensional vector. Bayesian optimization is built on a statistical technique called Gaussian process regression, which allows predicting the performance of a new design based on previously tested designs. After providing a detailed introduction to Gaussian process regression, we introduce two Bayesian optimization methods: expected improvement, for design problems with noise-free evaluations; and the knowledge-gradient method, which generalizes expected improvement and may be used in design problems with noisy evaluations. Both methods are derived using a value-of-information analysis, and enjoy one-step Bayes-optimality

Domain adaptation of weighted majority votes via perturbed variation-based self-labeling

In machine learning, the domain adaptation problem arrives when the test (target) and the train (source) data are generated from different distributions. A key applied issue is thus the design of algorithms able to generalize on a new distribution, for which we have no label information. We focus on learning classification models defined as a weighted majority vote over a set of real-val ued functions. In this context, Germain et al. (2013) have shown that a measure of disagreement between these functions is crucial to control. The core of this measure is a theoretical bound--the C-bound (Lacasse et al., 2007)--which involves the disagreement and leads to a well performing majority vote learning algorithm in usual non-adaptative supervised setting: MinCq. In this work, we propose a framework to extend MinCq to a domain adaptation scenario. This procedure takes advantage of the recent perturbed variation divergence between distributions proposed by Harel and Mannor (2012). Justified by a theoretical bound on the target risk of the vote, we provide to MinCq a target sample labeled thanks to a perturbed variation-based self-labeling focused on the regions where the source and target marginals appear similar. We also study the influence of our self-labeling, from which we deduce an original process for tuning the hyperparameters. Finally, our framework called PV-MinCq shows very promising results on a rotation and translation synthetic problem