Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development

The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art

The 1990 progress report and future plans

This document describes the progress and plans of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (RIA) at ARC in 1990. Activities span a range from basic scientific research to engineering development and to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out at RIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. Our major focus is on a limited number of research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and proven applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. RIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at JPL and AI applications groups at all NASA centers

Exact Computation of Influence Spread by Binary Decision Diagrams

Evaluating influence spread in social networks is a fundamental procedure to estimate the word-of-mouth effect in viral marketing. There are enormous studies about this topic; however, under the standard stochastic cascade models, the exact computation of influence spread is known to be #P-hard. Thus, the existing studies have used Monte-Carlo simulation-based approximations to avoid exact computation. We propose the first algorithm to compute influence spread exactly under the independent cascade model. The algorithm first constructs binary decision diagrams (BDDs) for all possible realizations of influence spread, then computes influence spread by dynamic programming on the constructed BDDs. To construct the BDDs efficiently, we designed a new frontier-based search-type procedure. The constructed BDDs can also be used to solve other influence-spread related problems, such as random sampling without rejection, conditional influence spread evaluation, dynamic probability update, and gradient computation for probability optimization problems. We conducted computational experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The algorithm successfully computed influence spread on real-world networks with a hundred edges in a reasonable time, which is quite impossible by the naive algorithm. We also conducted an experiment to evaluate the accuracy of the Monte-Carlo simulation-based approximation by comparing exact influence spread obtained by the proposed algorithm.Comment: WWW'1

Verifying Controllers Against Adversarial Examples with Bayesian Optimization

Recent successes in reinforcement learning have lead to the development of complex controllers for real-world robots. As these robots are deployed in safety-critical applications and interact with humans, it becomes critical to ensure safety in order to avoid causing harm. A first step in this direction is to test the controllers in simulation. To be able to do this, we need to capture what we mean by safety and then efficiently search the space of all behaviors to see if they are safe. In this paper, we present an active-testing framework based on Bayesian Optimization. We specify safety constraints using logic and exploit structure in the problem in order to test the system for adversarial counter examples that violate the safety specifications. These specifications are defined as complex boolean combinations of smooth functions on the trajectories and, unlike reward functions in reinforcement learning, are expressive and impose hard constraints on the system. In our framework, we exploit regularity assumptions on individual functions in form of a Gaussian Process (GP) prior. We combine these into a coherent optimization framework using problem structure. The resulting algorithm is able to provably verify complex safety specifications or alternatively find counter examples. Experimental results show that the proposed method is able to find adversarial examples quickly.Comment: Proc. of the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, 201

Deep Learning for Abstraction, Control and Monitoring of Complex Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) consist of digital devices that interact with some physical components. Their popularity and complexity are growing exponentially, giving birth to new, previously unexplored, safety-critical application domains. As CPS permeate our daily lives, it becomes imperative to reason about their reliability. Formal methods provide rigorous techniques for verification, control and synthesis of safe and reliable CPS. However, these methods do not scale with the complexity of the system, thus their applicability to real-world problems is limited. A promising strategy is to leverage deep learning techniques to tackle the scalability issue of formal methods, transforming unfeasible problems into approximately solvable ones. The approximate models are trained over observations which are solutions of the formal problem. In this thesis, we focus on the following tasks, which are computationally challenging: the modeling and the simulation of a complex stochastic model, the design of a safe and robust control policy for a system acting in a highly uncertain environment and the runtime verification problem under full or partial observability. Our approaches, based on deep learning, are indeed applicable to real-world complex and safety-critical systems acting under strict real-time constraints and in presence of a significant amount of uncertainty.Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) consist of digital devices that interact with some physical components. Their popularity and complexity are growing exponentially, giving birth to new, previously unexplored, safety-critical application domains. As CPS permeate our daily lives, it becomes imperative to reason about their reliability. Formal methods provide rigorous techniques for verification, control and synthesis of safe and reliable CPS. However, these methods do not scale with the complexity of the system, thus their applicability to real-world problems is limited. A promising strategy is to leverage deep learning techniques to tackle the scalability issue of formal methods, transforming unfeasible problems into approximately solvable ones. The approximate models are trained over observations which are solutions of the formal problem. In this thesis, we focus on the following tasks, which are computationally challenging: the modeling and the simulation of a complex stochastic model, the design of a safe and robust control policy for a system acting in a highly uncertain environment and the runtime verification problem under full or partial observability. Our approaches, based on deep learning, are indeed applicable to real-world complex and safety-critical systems acting under strict real-time constraints and in presence of a significant amount of uncertainty