5,946 research outputs found
Variational approximation for mixtures of linear mixed models
Mixtures of linear mixed models (MLMMs) are useful for clustering grouped
data and can be estimated by likelihood maximization through the EM algorithm.
The conventional approach to determining a suitable number of components is to
compare different mixture models using penalized log-likelihood criteria such
as BIC.We propose fitting MLMMs with variational methods which can perform
parameter estimation and model selection simultaneously. A variational
approximation is described where the variational lower bound and parameter
updates are in closed form, allowing fast evaluation. A new variational greedy
algorithm is developed for model selection and learning of the mixture
components. This approach allows an automatic initialization of the algorithm
and returns a plausible number of mixture components automatically. In cases of
weak identifiability of certain model parameters, we use hierarchical centering
to reparametrize the model and show empirically that there is a gain in
efficiency by variational algorithms similar to that in MCMC algorithms.
Related to this, we prove that the approximate rate of convergence of
variational algorithms by Gaussian approximation is equal to that of the
corresponding Gibbs sampler which suggests that reparametrizations can lead to
improved convergence in variational algorithms as well.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, submitted to JCG
Sequential Gaussian Processes for Online Learning of Nonstationary Functions
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating
functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in
real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive
choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility
and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model
suffers from several drawbacks: i) Conventional GP inference scales
with respect to the number of observations; ii) updating a GP model
sequentially is not trivial; and iii) covariance kernels often enforce
stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary
covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these
issues, we propose an online sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit mixtures
of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for fast,
distributed inference. By formulating hyperparameter optimization as a
multi-armed bandit problem, we accelerate mixing for real time inference. Our
approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for
online GP estimation in the context of prediction for simulated non-stationary
data and hospital time series data
Hierarchical Gaussian process mixtures for regression
As a result of their good performance in practice and their desirable analytical properties, Gaussian process regression models are becoming increasingly of interest in statistics, engineering and other fields. However, two major problems arise when the model is applied to a large data-set with repeated measurements. One stems from the systematic heterogeneity among the different replications, and the other is the requirement to invert a covariance matrix which is involved in the implementation of the model. The dimension of this matrix equals the sample size of the training data-set. In this paper, a Gaussian process mixture model for regression is proposed for dealing with the above two problems, and a hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used for its implementation. Application to a real data-set is reported
- …