Linear and Order Statistics Combiners for Pattern Classification

Several researchers have experimentally shown that substantial improvements can be obtained in difficult pattern recognition problems by combining or integrating the outputs of multiple classifiers. This chapter provides an analytical framework to quantify the improvements in classification results due to combining. The results apply to both linear combiners and order statistics combiners. We first show that to a first order approximation, the error rate obtained over and above the Bayes error rate, is directly proportional to the variance of the actual decision boundaries around the Bayes optimum boundary. Combining classifiers in output space reduces this variance, and hence reduces the "added" error. If N unbiased classifiers are combined by simple averaging, the added error rate can be reduced by a factor of N if the individual errors in approximating the decision boundaries are uncorrelated. Expressions are then derived for linear combiners which are biased or correlated, and the effect of output correlations on ensemble performance is quantified. For order statistics based non-linear combiners, we derive expressions that indicate how much the median, the maximum and in general the ith order statistic can improve classifier performance. The analysis presented here facilitates the understanding of the relationships among error rates, classifier boundary distributions, and combining in output space. Experimental results on several public domain data sets are provided to illustrate the benefits of combining and to support the analytical results.Comment: 31 page

Thompson Sampling with Virtual Helping Agents

We address the problem of online sequential decision making, i.e., balancing the trade-off between exploiting the current knowledge to maximize immediate performance and exploring the new information to gain long-term benefits using the multi-armed bandit framework. Thompson sampling is one of the heuristics for choosing actions that address this exploration-exploitation dilemma. We first propose a general framework that helps heuristically tune the exploration versus exploitation trade-off in Thompson sampling using multiple samples from the posterior distribution. Utilizing this framework, we propose two algorithms for the multi-armed bandit problem and provide theoretical bounds on the cumulative regret. Next, we demonstrate the empirical improvement in the cumulative regret performance of the proposed algorithm over Thompson Sampling. We also show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on real-world datasets. Contrary to the existing methods, our framework provides a mechanism to vary the amount of exploration/ exploitation based on the task at hand. Towards this end, we extend our framework for two additional problems, i.e., best arm identification and time-sensitive learning in bandits and compare our algorithm with existing methods.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Ensemble learning for blending gridded satellite and gauge-measured precipitation data

Regression algorithms are regularly used for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products. In this context, ground-based measurements are the dependent variable and the satellite data are the predictor variables, together with topography factors. Alongside this, it is increasingly recognised in many fields that combinations of algorithms through ensemble learning can lead to substantial predictive performance improvements. Still, a sufficient number of ensemble learners for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products and their large-scale comparison are currently missing from the literature. In this work, we fill this specific gap by proposing 11 new ensemble learners in the field and by extensively comparing them for the entire contiguous United States and for a 15-year period. We use monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets. We also use gauge-measured precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The ensemble learners combine the predictions by six regression algorithms (base learners), namely the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), random forests (RF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and each of them is based on a different combiner. The combiners include the equal-weight combiner, the median combiner, two best learners and seven variants of a sophisticated stacking method. The latter stacks a regression algorithm on the top of the base learners to combine their independent predictions...Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2301.0125

Interferometry of ϵ\epsilon Aurigae: Characterization of the asymmetric eclipsing disk

We report on a total of 106 nights of optical interferometric observations of the $\epsilon$ Aurigae system taken during the last 14 years by four beam combiners at three different interferometric facilities. This long sequence of data provides an ideal assessment of the system prior to, during, and after the recent 2009-2011 eclipse. We have reconstructed model-independent images from the 10 in-eclipse epochs which show that a disk-like object is indeed responsible for the eclipse. Using new 3D, time-dependent modeling software, we derive the properties of the F-star (diameter, limb darkening), determine previously unknown orbital elements ($\Omega$, $i$), and access the global structures of the optically thick portion of the eclipsing disk using both geometric models and approximations of astrophysically relevant density distributions. These models may be useful in future hydrodynamical modeling of the system. Lastly, we address several outstanding research questions including mid-eclipse brightening, possible shrinking of the F-type primary, and any warps or sub-features within the disk.Comment: 105 pages, 57 figures. This is an author-created, un-copyedited version of an article accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. IOP Publishing Ltd is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this version of the manuscript or any version derived from i