Filtering Random Graph Processes Over Random Time-Varying Graphs

Graph filters play a key role in processing the graph spectra of signals supported on the vertices of a graph. However, despite their widespread use, graph filters have been analyzed only in the deterministic setting, ignoring the impact of stochastic- ity in both the graph topology as well as the signal itself. To bridge this gap, we examine the statistical behavior of the two key filter types, finite impulse response (FIR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) graph filters, when operating on random time- varying graph signals (or random graph processes) over random time-varying graphs. Our analysis shows that (i) in expectation, the filters behave as the same deterministic filters operating on a deterministic graph, being the expected graph, having as input signal a deterministic signal, being the expected signal, and (ii) there are meaningful upper bounds for the variance of the filter output. We conclude the paper by proposing two novel ways of exploiting randomness to improve (joint graph-time) noise cancellation, as well as to reduce the computational complexity of graph filtering. As demonstrated by numerical results, these methods outperform the disjoint average and denoise algorithm, and yield a (up to) four times complexity redution, with very little difference from the optimal solution

Covariance estimation for multivariate conditionally Gaussian dynamic linear models

In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the computation of confidence bounds of the forecasts. We develop an on-line, non-iterative Bayesian algorithm for estimation and forecasting. It is empirically found that, for a range of simulated time series, the proposed covariance estimator has good performance converging to the true values of the unknown observation covariance matrix. Over a simulated time series, the new method approximates the correct estimates, produced by a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which is used here as the gold standard. The special, but important, vector autoregressive (VAR) and time-varying VAR models are illustrated by considering London metal exchange data consisting of spot prices of aluminium, copper, lead and zinc.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, 6 table