Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure

Neural-Attention-Based Deep Learning Architectures for Modeling Traffic Dynamics on Lane Graphs

Deep neural networks can be powerful tools, but require careful application-specific design to ensure that the most informative relationships in the data are learnable. In this paper, we apply deep neural networks to the nonlinear spatiotemporal physics problem of vehicle traffic dynamics. We consider problems of estimating macroscopic quantities (e.g., the queue at an intersection) at a lane level. First-principles modeling at the lane scale has been a challenge due to complexities in modeling social behaviors like lane changes, and those behaviors' resultant macro-scale effects. Following domain knowledge that upstream/downstream lanes and neighboring lanes affect each others' traffic flows in distinct ways, we apply a form of neural attention that allows the neural network layers to aggregate information from different lanes in different manners. Using a microscopic traffic simulator as a testbed, we obtain results showing that an attentional neural network model can use information from nearby lanes to improve predictions, and, that explicitly encoding the lane-to-lane relationship types significantly improves performance. We also demonstrate the transfer of our learned neural network to a more complex road network, discuss how its performance degradation may be attributable to new traffic behaviors induced by increased topological complexity, and motivate learning dynamics models from many road network topologies.Comment: To appear at 2019 IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation System

A Transferable Intersection Reconstruction Network for Traffic Speed Prediction

Traffic speed prediction is the key to many valuable applications, and it is also a challenging task because of its various influencing factors. Recent work attempts to obtain more information through various hybrid models, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. However, the spatial information acquisition schemes of these methods have two-level differentiation problems. Either the modeling is simple but contains little spatial information, or the modeling is complete but lacks flexibility. In order to introduce more spatial information on the basis of ensuring flexibility, this paper proposes IRNet (Transferable Intersection Reconstruction Network). First, this paper reconstructs the intersection into a virtual intersection with the same structure, which simplifies the topology of the road network. Then, the spatial information is subdivided into intersection information and sequence information of traffic flow direction, and spatiotemporal features are obtained through various models. Third, a self-attention mechanism is used to fuse spatiotemporal features for prediction. In the comparison experiment with the baseline, not only the prediction effect, but also the transfer performance has obvious advantages.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figure

Study of real-time traffic state estimation and short-term prediction of signalized arterial network considering heterogeneous information sources

Compared with a freeway network, real-time traffic state estimation and prediction of a signalized arterial network is a challenging yet under-studied field. Starting from discussing the arterial traffic flow dynamics, this study proposes a novel framework for real-time traffic state estimation and short-term prediction for signalized corridors. Particle filter techniques are used to integrate field measurements from different sources to improve the accuracy and robustness of the model. Several comprehensive numerical studies based on both real world and simulated datasets showed that the proposed model can generate reliable estimation and short-term prediction of different traffic states including queue length, flow density, speed and travel time with a high degree of accuracy. The proposed model can serve as the key component in both ATIS (Advanced Traveler's Information System) and proactive traffic control system

An Interdisciplinary Survey on Origin-destination Flows Modeling: Theory and Techniques

Origin-destination~(OD) flow modeling is an extensively researched subject across multiple disciplines, such as the investigation of travel demand in transportation and spatial interaction modeling in geography. However, researchers from different fields tend to employ their own unique research paradigms and lack interdisciplinary communication, preventing the cross-fertilization of knowledge and the development of novel solutions to challenges. This article presents a systematic interdisciplinary survey that comprehensively and holistically scrutinizes OD flows from utilizing fundamental theory to studying the mechanism of population mobility and solving practical problems with engineering techniques, such as computational models. Specifically, regional economics, urban geography, and sociophysics are adept at employing theoretical research methods to explore the underlying mechanisms of OD flows. They have developed three influential theoretical models: the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the radiation model. These models specifically focus on examining the fundamental influences of distance, opportunities, and population on OD flows, respectively. In the meantime, fields such as transportation, urban planning, and computer science primarily focus on addressing four practical problems: OD prediction, OD construction, OD estimation, and OD forecasting. Advanced computational models, such as deep learning models, have gradually been introduced to address these problems more effectively. Finally, based on the existing research, this survey summarizes current challenges and outlines future directions for this topic. Through this survey, we aim to break down the barriers between disciplines in OD flow-related research, fostering interdisciplinary perspectives and modes of thinking.Comment: 49 pages, 6 figure