Autonomous trading in modern electricity markets

The smart grid is an electricity grid augmented with digital technologies that automate the management of electricity delivery. The smart grid is envisioned to be a main enabler of sustainable, clean, efficient, reliable, and secure energy supply. One of the milestones in the smart grid vision will be programs for customers to participate in electricity markets through demand-side management and distributed generation; electricity markets will (directly or indirectly) incentivize customers to adapt their demand to supply conditions, which in turn will help to utilize intermittent energy resources such as from solar and wind, and to reduce peak-demand. Since wholesale electricity markets are not designed for individual participation, retail brokers could represent customer populations in the wholesale market, and make profit while contributing to the electricity grid’s stability and reducing customer costs. A retail broker will need to operate continually and make real-time decisions in a complex, dynamic environment. Therefore, it will benefit from employing an autonomous broker agent. With this motivation in mind, this dissertation makes five main contributions to the areas of artificial intelligence, smart grids, and electricity markets. First, this dissertation formalizes the problem of autonomous trading by a retail broker in modern electricity markets. Since the trading problem is intractable to solve exactly, this formalization provides a guideline for approximate solutions. Second, this dissertation introduces a general algorithm for autonomous trading in modern electricity markets, named LATTE (Lookahead-policy for Autonomous Time-constrained Trading of Electricity). LATTE is a general framework that can be instantiated in different ways that tailor it to specific setups. Third, this dissertation contributes fully implemented and operational autonomous broker agents, each using a different instantiation of LATTE. These agents were successful in international competitions and controlled experiments and can serve as benchmarks for future research in this domain. Detailed descriptions of the agents’ behaviors as well as their source code are included in this dissertation. Fourth, this dissertation contributes extensive empirical analysis which validates the effectiveness of LATTE in different competition levels under a variety of environmental conditions, shedding light on the main reasons for its success by examining the importance of its constituent components. Fifth, this dissertation examines the impact of Time-Of-Use (TOU) tariffs in competitive electricity markets through empirical analysis. Time-Of-Use tariffs are proposed for demand-side management both in the literature and in the real-world. The success of the different instantiations of LATTE demonstrates its generality in the context of electricity markets. Ultimately, this dissertation demonstrates that an autonomous broker can act effectively in modern electricity markets by executing an efficient lookahead policy that optimizes its predicted utility, and by doing so the broker can benefit itself, its customers, and the economy.Computer Science

A free trade area between the Repbulic of Moldova and the European Union: feasibility, perspectives and potential impact.

This publication has been launched within the project “European Union – Republic of Moldova Trade Relations: Current Situation and Perspectives for Enhancement”. The project is sponsored by the Moldova-Soros Foundation. The major goal of this project is to help Moldovan government formulate and adopt balanced and sound positions for the future negotiations with the European Commission, so that an “enhanced trade regime” contributing to the economic modernization of the country and economic integration with EU is achieved.free trade agreement; feasibility study; Moldova; European Union;

A Multi-Agent Energy Trading Competition

The energy sector will undergo fundamental changes over the next ten years. Prices for fossil energy resources are continuously increasing, there is an urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions, and the United States and European Union are strongly motivated to become more independent from foreign energy imports. These factors will lead to installation of large numbers of distributed renewable energy generators, which are often intermittent in nature. This trend conflicts with the current power grid control infrastructure and strategies, where a few centralized control centers manage a limited number of large power plants such that their output meets the energy demands in real time. As the proportion of distributed and intermittent generation capacity increases, this task becomes much harder, especially as the local and regional distribution grids where renewable energy generators are usually installed are currently virtually unmanaged, lack real time metering and are not built to cope with power flow inversions (yet). All this is about to change, and so the control strategies must be adapted accordingly. While the hierarchical command-and-control approach served well in a world with a few large scale generation facilities and many small consumers, a more flexible, decentralized, and self-organizing control infrastructure will have to be developed that can be actively managed to balance both the large grid as a whole, as well as the many lower voltage sub-grids. We propose a competitive simulation test bed to stimulate research and development of electronic agents that help manage these tasks. Participants in the competition will develop intelligent agents that are responsible to level energy supply from generators with energy demand from consumers. The competition is designed to closely model reality by bootstrapping the simulation environment with real historic load, generation, and weather data. The simulation environment will provide a low-risk platform that combines simulated markets and real-world data to develop solutions that can be applied to help building the self-organizing intelligent energy grid of the future

Smart Grid Economics: Policy Guidance through Competitive Simulation

Sustainable energy systems of the future will need more than efficient, clean, low-cost, renewable energy sources; they will also need efficient price signals that motivate sustainable energy consumption as well as a better real-time alignment of energy demand and supply

TugaTAC Broker: A Fuzzy Logic Adaptive Reasoning Agent for Energy Trading

Smart Grid technologies are changing the way energy is generated, distributed and consumed. With the increasing spread of renewable power sources, new market strategies are needed to guarantee a more sustainable participation and less dependency of bulk generation. In PowerTAC (Power Trading Agent Competition), different software agents compete in a simulated energy market, impersonating broker companies to create and manage attractive tariffs for customers while aiming to profit. In this paper, we present TugaTAC Broker, a PowerTAC agent that uses a fuzzy logic mechanism to compose tariffs based on its customers portfolio. Fuzzy sets allow adaptive configurations for brokers in different scenarios. To validate and compare the performance of TugaTAC, we have run a local version of the PowerTAC competition. The experiments comprise TugaTAC competing against other simple agents and a more realistic configuration, with instances of the winners of previous editions of the competition. Preliminary results show a promising dynamic: our approach was able to manage imbalances and win the competition in the simple case, but need refinements to compete with more sophisticated market. (c) Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Competitive Benchmarking: An IS Research Approach to Address Wicked Problems with Big Data and Analytics

Wicked problems like sustainable energy and financial market stability are societal challenges that arise from complex socio-technical systems in which numerous social, economic, political, and technical factors interact. Understanding and mitigating them requires research methods that scale beyond the traditional areas of inquiry of Information Systems (IS) “individuals, organizations, and markets” and that deliver solutions in addition to insights. We describe an approach to address these challenges through Competitive Benchmarking (CB), a novel research method that helps interdisciplinary research communities to tackle complex challenges of societal scale by using different types of data from a variety of sources such as usage data from customers, production patterns from producers, public policy and regulatory constraints, etc. for a given instantiation. Further, the CB platform generates data that can be used to improve operational strategies and judge the effectiveness of regulatory regimes and policies. We describe our experience applying CB to the sustainable energy challenge in the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) in which more than a dozen research groups from around the world jointly devise, benchmark, and improve IS-based solutions

Will Border Carbon Adjustments Work?

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).The potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) restrictions in some nations to drive emission increases in other nations, or leakage, is a contentious issue in climate change negotiations. We evaluate the potential for border carbon adjustments (BCAs) to address leakage concerns using an economy-wide model. For 2025, we find that BCAs reduce leakage by up to two-thirds, but result in only modest reductions in global emissions and significantly reduce welfare. In contrast, BCA-equivalent leakage reductions can be achieved by very small emission charges or efficiency improvements in nations targeted by BCAs, which have negligible welfare effects. We conclude that BCAs are a costly method to reduce leakage but such policies may be effective coercion strategies. We also investigate the impact of BCAs on sectoral output and evaluate the leakage contributions of trade and changes in the price of crude oil.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Industry structure and regulation

As private firms become increasingly involved in the development of key infrastructure, redefining the role of government from that of serviceprovider to regulator presents both challenges and opportunities. The factors that give rise to sector reforms color how much policymakers invest in regulatory design during the reform process. Nevertheless, two factors are essential to sustainable sector and regulatory reform. First, the right structure must be established for the industry concerned, a structure that allows competition appropriate for that industry. Second, the objectives of regulation must be well defined, with a clear distinction between policymaking, policy implementation, and operations. The extent to which competition can be harnessed to help make regulation efficient, effective, and sustainable depends on the intrinsic technical characteristics of the sector. Each decision affects the sustainability of the regulatory regime in the face of the threat of regulatory capture (both political and commercial). Careful regulatory design is crucial not only for successful sectoral reform but also to balance the interests of various actors (government, consumers, developers, investors, and financiers). One model that has been relatively successful combines new entry, unbundled services, and the unambiguous spelling out of the legal rights and duties for both public and private service providers, administered by an autonomous regulatory authority. Problems with regulation often result as much from inadequate attention to sector structure and fostering competition as from weaknesses in the regulatory authority's institutional capacity. As for the tools of regulation, despite differences in some details between licenses and concessions (and their many contractual variations), these are basically instruments that establish the rights and obligations of contracting parties. Choices about where these rights and obligations are located in the legal hierarchy are shaped by a country's institutional capacity and legal traditions. But the existence of instruments to establish those rights and obligations does not eliminate the need for institutionsto administer them, and thus carry out the regulatory function. Establishing effective sectorwide regulation can be difficult in a developing country, but it is necessary. Policymakers will be able to create effective regulatory regimes where adequate attention is given to sector structure, competition, and institution-building.Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade Finance and Investment,Knowledge Economy,ICT Policy and Strategies,Decentralization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Administrative&Regulatory Law,ICT Policy and Strategies,Water and Industry,Knowledge Economy