Machine-assisted Cyber Threat Analysis using Conceptual Knowledge Discovery

Over the last years, computer networks have evolved into highly dynamic and interconnected environments, involving multiple heterogeneous devices and providing a myriad of services on top of them. This complex landscape has made it extremely difficult for security administrators to keep accurate and be effective in protecting their systems against cyber threats. In this paper, we describe our vision and scientific posture on how artificial intelligence techniques and a smart use of security knowledge may assist system administrators in better defending their networks. To that end, we put forward a research roadmap involving three complimentary axes, namely, (I) the use of FCA-based mechanisms for managing configuration vulnerabilities, (II) the exploitation of knowledge representation techniques for automated security reasoning, and (III) the design of a cyber threat intelligence mechanism as a CKDD process. Then, we describe a machine-assisted process for cyber threat analysis which provides a holistic perspective of how these three research axes are integrated together

Estimating Impact and Frequency of Risks to Safety and Mission Critical Systems Using CVSS

Many safety and mission critical systems depend on the correct and secure operation of both supportive and core software systems. E.g., both the safety of personnel and the effective execution of core missions on an oil platform depend on the correct recording storing, transfer and interpretation of data, such as that for the Logging While Drilling (LWD) and Measurement While Drilling (MWD) subsystems. Here, data is recorded on site, packaged and then transferred to an on-shore operational centre. Today, the data is transferred on dedicated communication channels to ensure a secure and safe transfer, free from deliberately and accidental faults. However, as the cost control is ever more important some of the transfer will be over remotely accessible infrastructure in the future. Thus, communication will be prone to known security vulnerabilities exploitable by outsiders. This paper presents a model that estimates risk level of known vulnerabilities as a combination of frequency and impact estimates derived from the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The model is implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)