Parameter Estimation via Conditional Expectation --- A Bayesian Inversion

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by actual observations of the response of the real system. In a probabilistic setting, Bayes's theory is the proper mathematical background for this identification process. The possibility of being able to compute a conditional expectation turns out to be crucial for this purpose. We show how this theoretical background can be used in an actual numerical procedure, and shortly discuss various numerical approximations

On the Solution of Markov-switching Rational Expectations Models

This paper describes a method for solving a class of forward-looking Markov-switching Rational Expectations models under noisy measurement, by specifying the unobservable expectations component as a general-measurable function of the observable states of the system, to be determined optimally via stochastic control and filtering theory. Solution existence is proved by setting this function to the regime-dependent feedback control minimizing the mean-square deviation of the equilibrium path from the corresponding perfect-foresight autoregressive Markov jump state motion. As the exact expression of the conditional (rational) expectations term is derived both in finite and infinite horizon model formulations, no (asymptotic) stationarity assumptions are needed to solve forward the system, for only initial values knowledge is required. A simple sufficient condition for the mean-square stability of the obtained rational expectations equilibrium is also provided.Rational Expectations, Markov-switching dynamic systems, Dynamic programming, Time-varying Kalman filter

Bibliographic Review on Distributed Kalman Filtering

In recent years, a compelling need has arisen to understand the effects of distributed information structures on estimation and filtering. In this paper, a bibliographical review on distributed Kalman filtering (DKF) is provided.\ud The paper contains a classification of different approaches and methods involved to DKF. The applications of DKF are also discussed and explained separately. A comparison of different approaches is briefly carried out. Focuses on the contemporary research are also addressed with emphasis on the practical applications of the techniques. An exhaustive list of publications, linked directly or indirectly to DKF in the open literature, is compiled to provide an overall picture of different developing aspects of this area

Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

Fundamental limits in Gaussian channels with feedback: confluence of communication, estimation, and control

The emerging study of integrating information theory and control systems theory has attracted tremendous attention, mainly motivated by the problems of control under communication constraints, feedback information theory, and networked systems. An often overlooked element is the estimation aspect; however, estimation cannot be studied isolatedly in those problems. Therefore, it is natural to investigate systems from the perspective of unifying communication, estimation, and control;This thesis is the first work to advocate such a perspective. To make Matters concrete, we focus on communication systems over Gaussian channels with feedback. For some of these channels, their fundamental limits for communication have been studied using information theoretic methods and control-oriented methods but remain open. In this thesis, we address the problems of characterizing and achieving the fundamental limits for these Gaussian channels with feedback by applying the unifying perspective;We establish a general equivalence among feedback communication, estimation, and feedback stabilization over the same Gaussian channels. As a consequence, we see that the information transmission (communication), information processing (estimation), and information utilization (control), seemingly different and usually separately treated, are in fact three sides of the same entity. We then reveal that the fundamental limitations in feedback communication, estimation, and control coincide: The achievable communication rates in the feedback communication problems can be alternatively given by the decay rates of the Cramer-Rao bounds (CRB) in the associated estimation problems or by the Bode sensitivity integrals in the associated control problems. Utilizing the general equivalence, we design optimal feedback communication schemes based on the celebrated Kalman filtering algorithm; these are the first deterministic, optimal communication schemes for these channels with feedback (except for the degenerated AWGN case). These schemes also extend the Schalkwijk-Kailath (SK) coding scheme and inherit its useful features, such as reduced coding complexity and improved performance. Hence, this thesis demonstrates that the new perspective plays a significant role in gaining new insights and new results in studying Gaussian feedback communication systems. We anticipate that the perspective could be extended to more general problems and helpful in building a theoretically and practically sound paradigm that unifies information, estimation, and control