Generative Algorithms for Fusion of Physics-Based Wildfire Spread Models with Satellite Data for Initializing Wildfire Forecasts

Increases in wildfire activity and the resulting impacts have prompted the development of high-resolution wildfire behavior models for forecasting fire spread. Recent progress in using satellites to detect fire locations further provides the opportunity to use measurements to improve fire spread forecasts from numerical models through data assimilation. This work develops a method for inferring the history of a wildfire from satellite measurements, providing the necessary information to initialize coupled atmosphere-wildfire models from a measured wildfire state in a physics-informed approach. The fire arrival time, which is the time the fire reaches a given spatial location, acts as a succinct representation of the history of a wildfire. In this work, a conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (cWGAN), trained with WRF-SFIRE simulations, is used to infer the fire arrival time from satellite active fire data. The cWGAN is used to produce samples of likely fire arrival times from the conditional distribution of arrival times given satellite active fire detections. Samples produced by the cWGAN are further used to assess the uncertainty of predictions. The cWGAN is tested on four California wildfires occurring between 2020 and 2022, and predictions for fire extent are compared against high resolution airborne infrared measurements. Further, the predicted ignition times are compared with reported ignition times. An average Sorensen's coefficient of 0.81 for the fire perimeters and an average ignition time error of 32 minutes suggest that the method is highly accurate

DATA-DRIVEN SIMULATIONS OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT REGIONAL SCALES

Current wildfire spread simulators lack the ability to provide accurate prediction of the active flame burning areas at regional scales due to two main challenges: a modeling challenge associated with providing accurate mathematical representations of the multi-physics multi-scale processes that induce the fire dynamics, and a data challenge associated with providing accurate estimates of the initial fire position and the physical parameters that are required by the fire spread models. A promising approach to overcome these limitations is data assimilation: data assimilation aims at integrating available observations into the fire spread simulator, while accounting for their respective uncertainties, in order to infer a more accurate estimate of the fire front position and to produce a more reliable forecast of the wildfire behavior. The main objective of the present study is to design and evaluate suitable algorithms for regional-scale wildfire spread simulations, which are able to properly handle the variations in wildfire spread due to the significant spatial heterogeneity in the model inputs and to the temporal changes in the wildfire behavior. First we developed a grid-based spatialized parameter estimation approach where the estimation targets are the spatially-varying input model parameters. Then we proposed an efficient and robust method to compute the discrepancy between the observed and simulated fire fronts, which is based on a front shape similarity measure inspired from image processing theory. The new method is demonstrated in the context of Luenberger observer-based state estimation strategy. Finally we developed a dual state-parameter estimation method where we estimate both model state and model parameters simultaneously in order to retrieve more accurate physical values of model parameters and achieve a better forecast performance in terms of fire front positions. All these efforts aim at designing algorithmic solutions to overcome the difficulties associated with spatially-varying environmental conditions and potentially complex fireline shapes and topologies. It paves the way towards real-time monitoring and forecasting of wildfire dynamics at regional scales

Unsupervised multi-scale change detection from SAR imagery for monitoring natural and anthropogenic disasters

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017Radar remote sensing can play a critical role in operational monitoring of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Despite its all-weather capabilities, and its high performance in mapping, and monitoring of change, the application of radar remote sensing in operational monitoring activities has been limited. This has largely been due to: (1) the historically high costs associated with obtaining radar data; (2) slow data processing, and delivery procedures; and (3) the limited temporal sampling that was provided by spaceborne radar-based satellites. Recent advances in the capabilities of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors have developed an environment that now allows for SAR to make significant contributions to disaster monitoring. New SAR processing strategies that can take full advantage of these new sensor capabilities are currently being developed. Hence, with this PhD dissertation, I aim to: (i) investigate unsupervised change detection techniques that can reliably extract signatures from time series of SAR images, and provide the necessary flexibility for application to a variety of natural, and anthropogenic hazard situations; (ii) investigate effective methods to reduce the effects of speckle and other noise on change detection performance; (iii) automate change detection algorithms using probabilistic Bayesian inferencing; and (iv) ensure that the developed technology is applicable to current, and future SAR sensors to maximize temporal sampling of a hazardous event. This is achieved by developing new algorithms that rely on image amplitude information only, the sole image parameter that is available for every single SAR acquisition. The motivation and implementation of the change detection concept are described in detail in Chapter 3. In the same chapter, I demonstrated the technique's performance using synthetic data as well as a real-data application to map wildfire progression. I applied Radiometric Terrain Correction (RTC) to the data to increase the sampling frequency, while the developed multiscaledriven approach reliably identified changes embedded in largely stationary background scenes. With this technique, I was able to identify the extent of burn scars with high accuracy. I further applied the application of the change detection technology to oil spill mapping. The analysis highlights that the approach described in Chapter 3 can be applied to this drastically different change detection problem with only little modification. While the core of the change detection technique remained unchanged, I made modifications to the pre-processing step to enable change detection from scenes of continuously varying background. I introduced the Lipschitz regularity (LR) transformation as a technique to normalize the typically dynamic ocean surface, facilitating high performance oil spill detection independent of environmental conditions during image acquisition. For instance, I showed that LR processing reduces the sensitivity of change detection performance to variations in surface winds, which is a known limitation in oil spill detection from SAR. Finally, I applied the change detection technique to aufeis flood mapping along the Sagavanirktok River. Due to the complex nature of aufeis flooded areas, I substituted the resolution-preserving speckle filter used in Chapter 3 with curvelet filters. In addition to validating the performance of the change detection results, I also provide evidence of the wealth of information that can be extracted about aufeis flooding events once a time series of change detection information was extracted from SAR imagery. A summary of the developed change detection techniques is conducted and suggested future work is presented in Chapter 6

LIPIcs, Volume 277, GIScience 2023, Complete Volume

LIPIcs, Volume 277, GIScience 2023, Complete Volum

Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar

This open access book focuses on the practical application of electromagnetic polarimetry principles in Earth remote sensing with an educational purpose. In the last decade, the operations from fully polarimetric synthetic aperture radar such as the Japanese ALOS/PalSAR, the Canadian Radarsat-2 and the German TerraSAR-X and their easy data access for scientific use have developed further the research and data applications at L,C and X band. As a consequence, the wider distribution of polarimetric data sets across the remote sensing community boosted activity and development in polarimetric SAR applications, also in view of future missions. Numerous experiments with real data from spaceborne platforms are shown, with the aim of giving an up-to-date and complete treatment of the unique benefits of fully polarimetric synthetic aperture radar data in five different domains: forest, agriculture, cryosphere, urban and oceans

12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science: GIScience 2023, September 12–15, 2023, Leeds, UK

No abstract available

MS FT-2-2 7 Orthogonal polynomials and quadrature: Theory, computation, and applications

Quadrature rules find many applications in science and engineering. Their analysis is a classical area of applied mathematics and continues to attract considerable attention. This seminar brings together speakers with expertise in a large variety of quadrature rules. It is the aim of the seminar to provide an overview of recent developments in the analysis of quadrature rules. The computation of error estimates and novel applications also are described

Generalized averaged Gaussian quadrature and applications

A simple numerical method for constructing the optimal generalized averaged Gaussian quadrature formulas will be presented. These formulas exist in many cases in which real positive GaussKronrod formulas do not exist, and can be used as an adequate alternative in order to estimate the error of a Gaussian rule. We also investigate the conditions under which the optimal averaged Gaussian quadrature formulas and their truncated variants are internal