Моделирование рынков жилой недвижимости крупнейших городов России

Существующие математические модели массовой оценки и прогнозирования рыночной стоимости жилых объектов обладают рядом недостатков: разработанные для какого-либо одного региона модели не годятся для других регионов. Все они быстро устаревают и требуют постоянной актуализации, поскольку не учитывают постоянно меняющуюся экономическую обстановку. Они не пригодны для оптимизации строительного бизнеса. Целью исследования является создание системы оценки недвижимости городов России, применимой к любым ее регионам, причем независимо от постоянно меняющейся экономической ситуации. Эта цель была достигнута благодаря тому, что в качестве входных параметров нейронной сети помимо строительно-эксплуатационных факторов были учтены географические параметры, фактор времени, а также ряд параметров, характеризующих экономическую ситуацию в конкретных регионах, в России и в мире. Статистические данные о рынках недвижимости РФ, необходимые для обучения нейронной сети, были собраны за длительный период с 2006 г. по 2020 г., что обусловило ее динамические свойства. В качестве примера применения системы были проведены виртуальные компьютерные эксперименты, которые, например, показали, что в Москве самую высокую удельную стоимость квадратного метра имеют однокомнатные квартиры минимальных размеров — 16 м2. Максимальная стоимость двухкомнатных квартир достигается при их площади 90 м2, трехкомнатных — 100 м2, четырехкомнатных — 110 м2, пятикомнатных — 120 м2. Для условий Екатеринбурга среди двухкомнатных квартир наибольшую стоимость квадратного метра имеют квартиры общей площадью 30 м2, трехкомнатных — 110 м2, четырехкомнатных — 130 м2, пятикомнатных — 150 м2. Таким образом, система может быть использована для оптимизации строительного бизнеса. Она может быть полезна государственным структурам, занимающимся вопросами управления рынком городской недвижимости, вопросами имущественного налогообложения, вопросами повышения эффективности жилищного рынка

Моделирование рынков жилой недвижимости крупнейших городов России

Существующие математические модели массовой оценки и прогнозирования рыночной стоимости жилых объектов обладают рядом недостатков: разработанные для какого-либо одного региона модели не годятся для других регионов. Все они быстро устаревают и требуют постоянной актуализации, поскольку не учитывают постоянно меняющуюся экономическую обстановку. Они не пригодны для оптимизации строительного бизнеса. Целью исследования является создание системы оценки недвижимости городов России, применимой к любым ее регионам, причем независимо от постоянно меняющейся экономической ситуации. Эта цель была достигнута благодаря тому, что в качестве входных параметров нейронной сети помимо строительно-эксплуатационных факторов были учтены географические параметры, фактор времени, а также ряд параметров, характеризующих экономическую ситуацию в конкретных регионах, в России и в мире. Статистические данные о рынках недвижимости РФ, необходимые для обучения нейронной сети, были собраны за длительный период с 2006 г. по 2020 г., что обусловило ее динамические свойства. В качестве примера применения системы были проведены виртуальные компьютерные эксперименты, которые, например, показали, что в Москве самую высокую удельную стоимость квадратного метра имеют однокомнатные квартиры минимальных размеров — 16 м2. Максимальная стоимость двухкомнатных квартир достигается при их площади 90 м2, трехкомнатных — 100 м2, четырехкомнатных — 110 м2, пятикомнатных — 120 м2. Для условий Екатеринбурга среди двухкомнатных квартир наибольшую стоимость квадратного метра имеют квартиры общей площадью 30 м2, трехкомнатных — 110 м2, четырехкомнатных — 130 м2, пятикомнатных — 150 м2. Таким образом, система может быть использована для оптимизации строительного бизнеса. Она может быть полезна государственным структурам, занимающимся вопросами управления рынком городской недвижимости, вопросами имущественного налогообложения, вопросами повышения эффективности жилищного рынка

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF SPECIFIC FACTORS ON REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA

The work deals with the analysis of the real estate market and the specificities of the formation of real estate prices in the Republic of Srpska. The specificity is reflected, among other things, in the definition of the market value of real estate if the prices are known from the sales contracts entered in the Real Estate Price Register (formed on the basis of supply and demand for apartments), the formation of value zones (location factor), the value tables (relational tables and value levels), the additional factors of influence (factor of the position of the apartment in the building) and equations for estimating the value of the real estate. The analysis was done using the CAMA algorithm. The research results show that real estate prices from the Real Estate Price Register and real estate prices calculated according to the CAMA algorithm are 70% accurate, i.e. they are within the permitted deviation interval of +,- 10 %, which means that the CAMA algorithm can also be used for real estates that have not been registered in the Real Estate Price Register yet

The role of neural network for estimating real estate prices value in post COVID-19: a case of the middle east market

The main goal of this paper was to explore the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) model in predicting real estate prices in the Middle East market. Although conventional modeling approaches such as regression can be used in prediction, they have a weakness of a predetermined relationship between input and output. In this regard, using the ANN model was expected to reduce the bias and ensure non-linear relationships are also covered in the prediction process for more accurate results. The ANN model was created using Python v.3.10 program. The model exhibited a high correlation between predicted and actual house price data (R=0.658). In this respect, it was realized that the model could be effectively used in appraising real estate by investors. However, a major limitation of the model was realized to be a limited dataset for large and luxurious houses, which were not accurately predicted as data distribution between actual and predicted values became sparse for high house prices. A key recommendation made is that future research should include more variables related to luxurious houses and macroeconomic factors to increase the ANN model accuracy

Use of ANN model in economies

In this paper, the authors made their contribution by constructing a model for the forecast of average annual net earnings in the EU countries. The model is based on the artificial neural network (ANN) use and for the needs of its creation the authors have presented their proposal for a model entry – economic variables that determine earnings. Generally, implementing an economic policy aimed at preventing stagnation of earnings levels can be achieved by running a sustainable earnings policy and our model can be used as an acceptable tool in the function of keeping that policy

Parametric and non-parametric methods in mass appraisal on poorly developed real estate markets

Purpose: The objective of the article is to identify machine learning methods that provide the best real estate appraisals for small-sized samples, particularly on poorly developed markets. A hypothesis is verified according to which machine learning methods result in more accurate appraisals than multiple regression models do, taking into account sample sizes. Design/Methodology/Approach: Four types of regression were employed in the study: a multiple regression model, a ridge regression model, random forest regression and k nearest neighbours regression. A sampling scheme was proposed which enables defining the impact of a sample size in training datasets on the accuracy of appraisals in test datasets. Findings: The research enabled drawing several conclusions. First of all, the greater the training set was, the more precise the appraisals in a test set were. The conclusion drawn is that a reduction of a training set causes the deterioration of modelling results, but such deterioration is not substantial. Secondly, ridge regression model appeared to be the best model, and thereby the one most resistant to a low number of data. This model, apart from demonstrating the greatest resistance, additionally has the advantage of being a parametric, hence allowing inference. Practical Implications: Presented considerations are important, for instance in the case of valuations conducted for fiscal purposes, when it becomes necessary to determine the value of every type of real properties, even the ones featuring sporadically occurring states of properties. Originality/Value: The study contains modelling of the values defined by property appraisers, and not prices, as in the majority of studies. This decision enabled increasing the diversity of states of real estate properties, thereby including in the modelling process not just those real properties which are most typically traded.peer-reviewe

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF SPECIFIC FACTORS ON REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA

The work deals with the analysis of the real estate market and the specificities of the formation of real estate prices in the Republic of Srpska. The specificity is reflected, among other things, in the definition of the market value of real estate if the prices are known from the sales contracts entered in the Real Estate Price Register (formed on the basis of supply and demand for apartments), the formation of value zones (location factor), the value tables (relational tables and value levels), the additional factors of influence (factor of the position of the apartment in the building) and equations for estimating the value of the real estate. The analysis was done using the CAMA algorithm. The research results show that real estate prices from the Real Estate Price Register and real estate prices calculated according to the CAMA algorithm are 70% accurate, i.e. they are within the permitted deviation interval of +,- 10 %, which means that the CAMA algorithm can also be used for real estates that have not been registered in the Real Estate Price Register yet

Comparison of Various Machine Learning Models for Estimating Construction Projects Sales Valuation Using Economic Variables and Indices

The capability of various machine learning techniques in predicting construction project profit in residential buildings using a combination of economic variables and indices (EV&Is) and physical and financial variables (P&F) as input variables remain uncertain. Although recent studies have primarily focused on identifying the factors influencing the sales of construction projects due to their significant short-term impact on a country's economy, the prediction of these parameters is crucial for ensuring project sustainability. While techniques such as regression and artificial neural networks have been utilized to estimate construction project sales, limited research has been conducted in this area. The application of machine learning techniques presents several advantages over conventional methods, including reductions in cost, time, and effort. Therefore, this study aims to predict the sales valuation of construction projects using various machine learning approaches, incorporating different EV&Is and P&F as input features for these models and subsequently generating the sales valuation as the output. This research will undertake a comparative analysis to investigate the efficiency of the different machine learning models, identifying the most effective approach for estimating the sales valuation of construction projects. By leveraging machine learning techniques, it is anticipated that the accuracy of sales valuation predictions will be enhanced, ultimately resulting in more sustainable and successful construction projects. In general, the findings of this research reveal that the extremely randomized trees model delivers the best performance, while the decision tree model exhibits the least satisfactory performance in predicting the sales valuation of construction projects

Assessment of the Real Estate Market Value in the European Market by Artificial Neural Networks Application

Using an artificial neural network, it is possible with the precision of the input data to show the dependence of the property price from variable inputs. It is meant to make a forecast that can be used for different purposes (accounting, sales, etc.), but also for the feasibility of building objects, as the sales price forecast is calculated. The aim of the research was to construct a prognostic model of the real estate market value in the EU countries depending on the impact of macroeconomic indicators. The available input data demonstrates that macroeconomic variables influence determination of real estate prices. The authors sought to obtain correct output data which show prices forecast in the real estate markets of the observed countries