Assessing Percolation Threshold Based on High-Order Non-Backtracking Matrices

Percolation threshold of a network is the critical value such that when nodes or edges are randomly selected with probability below the value, the network is fragmented but when the probability is above the value, a giant component connecting large portion of the network would emerge. Assessing the percolation threshold of networks has wide applications in network reliability, information spread, epidemic control, etc. The theoretical approach so far to assess the percolation threshold is mainly based on spectral radius of adjacency matrix or non-backtracking matrix, which is limited to dense graphs or locally treelike graphs, and is less effective for sparse networks with non-negligible amount of triangles and loops. In this paper, we study high-order non-backtracking matrices and their application to assessing percolation threshold. We first define high-order non-backtracking matrices and study the properties of their spectral radii. Then we focus on 2nd-order non-backtracking matrix and demonstrate analytically that the reciprocal of its spectral radius gives a tighter lower bound than those of adjacency and standard non-backtracking matrices. We further build a smaller size matrix with the same largest eigenvalue as the 2nd-order non-backtracking matrix to improve computation efficiency. Finally, we use both synthetic networks and 42 real networks to illustrate that the use of 2nd-order non-backtracking matrix does give better lower bound for assessing percolation threshold than adjacency and standard non-backtracking matrices.Comment: to appear in proceedings of the 26th International World Wide Web Conference(WWW2017

Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.Comment: Note that Figure 2 does not appear in the final published versio

Spectral Theory of Sparse Non-Hermitian Random Matrices

Sparse non-Hermitian random matrices arise in the study of disordered physical systems with asymmetric local interactions, and have applications ranging from neural networks to ecosystem dynamics. The spectral characteristics of these matrices provide crucial information on system stability and susceptibility, however, their study is greatly complicated by the twin challenges of a lack of symmetry and a sparse interaction structure. In this review we provide a concise and systematic introduction to the main tools and results in this field. We show how the spectra of sparse non-Hermitian matrices can be computed via an analogy with infinite dimensional operators obeying certain recursion relations. With reference to three illustrative examples --- adjacency matrices of regular oriented graphs, adjacency matrices of oriented Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graphs, and adjacency matrices of weighted oriented Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graphs --- we demonstrate the use of these methods to obtain both analytic and numerical results for the spectrum, the spectral distribution, the location of outlier eigenvalues, and the statistical properties of eigenvectors.Comment: 60 pages, 10 figure

Diffusion and Supercritical Spreading Processes on Complex Networks

Die große Menge an Datensätzen, die in den letzten Jahren verfügbar wurden, hat es ermöglicht, sowohl menschlich-getriebene als auch biologische komplexe Systeme in einem beispiellosen Ausmaß empirisch zu untersuchen. Parallel dazu ist die Vorhersage und Kontrolle epidemischer Ausbrüche für Fragen der öffentlichen Gesundheit sehr wichtig geworden. In dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir einige wichtige Aspekte von Diffusionsphänomenen und Ausbreitungsprozeßen auf Netzwerken. Wir untersuchen drei verschiedene Probleme im Zusammenhang mit Ausbreitungsprozeßen im überkritischen Regime. Zunächst untersuchen wir die Reaktionsdiffusion auf Ensembles zufälliger Netzwerke, die durch die beobachteten Levy-Flugeigenschaften der menschlichen Mobilität charakterisiert sind. Das zweite Problem ist die Schätzung der Ankunftszeiten globaler Pandemien. Zu diesem Zweck leiten wir geeignete verborgene Geometrien netzgetriebener Streuprozeße, unter Nutzung der Random-Walk-Theorie, her und identifizieren diese. Durch die Definition von effective distances wird das Problem komplexer raumzeitlicher Muster auf einfache, homogene Wellenausbreitungsmuster reduziert. Drittens führen wir durch die Einbettung von Knoten in den verborgenen Raum, der durch effective distances im Netzwerk definiert ist, eine neuartige Netzwerkzentralität ein, die ViralRank genannt wird und quantifiziert, wie nahe ein Knoten, im Durchschnitt, den anderen Knoten im Netzwerk ist. Diese drei Studien bilden einen einheitlichen Rahmen zur Charakterisierung von Diffusions- und Ausbreitungsprozeßen, die sich auf komplexen Netzwerken allgemein abzeichnen, und bieten neue Ansätze für herausfordernde theoretische Probleme, die für die Bewertung künftiger Modelle verwendet werden können.The large amount of datasets that became available in recent years has made it possible to empirically study humanly-driven, as well as biological complex systems to an unprecedented extent. In parallel, the prediction and control of epidemic outbreaks have become very important for public health issues. In this thesis, we investigate some important aspects of diffusion phenomena and spreading processes unfolding on networks. We study three different problems related to spreading processes in the supercritical regime. First, we study reaction-diffusion on ensembles of random networks characterized by the observed Levy-flight properties of human mobility. The second problem is the estimation of the arrival times of global pandemics. To this end, we derive and identify suitable hidden geometries of network-driven spreading processes, leveraging on random-walk theory. Through the definition of network effective distances, the problem of complex spatiotemporal patterns is reduced to simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns. Third, by embedding nodes in the hidden space defined by network effective distances, we introduce a novel network centrality, called ViralRank, which quantifies how close a node is, on average, to the other nodes. These three studies constitute a unified framework to characterize diffusion and spreading processes unfolding on complex networks in very general settings, and provide new approaches to challenging theoretical problems that can be used to benchmark future models

Inverse Problems in High Dimensional Stochastic Systems Under Uncertainty.

Increasingly often, problems in modern medicine, quantitative finance, or social-networking involve tens of thousands of variables that interact with each other and jointly evolve over time. The states of these variables may correspond to the phenotype of a particular individual, the price of a security, or the current status of an individual's social networking profile. If these states are hidden to a researcher, additional information must be obtained to infer these hidden states based upon measurements of other variables, knowledge of the interacting network structure, and any dynamics that model the evolution of these states. This dissertation is an attempt to address general problems regarding reasoning under uncertainty in such spatio-temporal models but with an emphasis to applications in predictive health and disease in a loosely monitored population of individuals. The motivation is highly interdisciplinary and draws on tools and concepts from machine learning, statistics, epidemiology, bioinformatics, and physics. We begin by presenting a solution to recursively sampling the best subset of nodes/variables that elicit the largest expected information gain of all sampled and un-sampled nodes in a large spatio-temporal complex network. We then present a tractable method for empirically estimating the spatio-temporal graphical model structure corresponding to the "susceptible", "infected", and "recovered" (SIR) model of mathematical epidemiology. Here, we formulate the problem as an L1-penalized likelihood convex program and produce network detection performance superior to other comparable state of the art methods. We present a logistic regression classifier that is robust to worst-case bounded measurement uncertainty. The proposed method produces superior worst-case detection performance to the standard L1-logistic regression classifier on a Human rhinovirus (HRV) gene expression data set. The final chapter concludes with identifying the appropriate basis functions used in a classification model when the data is both high-dimensional and temporally sampled with ultimate goal of discriminating between multiple states/labels, e.g., phenotypes. We utilize Gaussian Processes and L1-logistic regression to accomplish this task and apply it to a human gene expression time-series data set resulting from a challenge study inoculation with Human Influenza A/H3N2, HRV, and Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).Ph.D.BioinformaticsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78831/1/plhjr_1.pd

Topics in social network analysis and network science

This chapter introduces statistical methods used in the analysis of social networks and in the rapidly evolving parallel-field of network science. Although several instances of social network analysis in health services research have appeared recently, the majority involve only the most basic methods and thus scratch the surface of what might be accomplished. Cutting-edge methods using relevant examples and illustrations in health services research are provided