REVISITING ENGEL’S VERIFICATION OF LANCHESTER'S SQUARE LAW USING BATTLE OF IWO JIMA DATA

Since Engel’s 1954 verification of Lanchester's square law using Battle of Iwo Jima data, the homogenous Lanchester square law has been widely used as the default to approximate aggregate-level attrition in large modern battles. While this may work in some cases (particularly when forces are concentrated), there has been a death of efforts to assess the applicability of using other equations to fit the time-phased Iwo Jima battle data (for example the linear and log laws). Not all battles conform to a square law exponential attrition curve. Some battles (due to the nature or nuance of the scenario, battlefield, or engagement type) may lend themselves to being fitted better to linear, logarithmic, or several other equations. A better fit may lead to an improved understanding of future scenarios, which can help decision makers assign allocations for budgeting and deployment sizes and locations with better analytical support for approval of those decisions. This analysis revisits and replicates Engel's approach to fitting Lanchester’s square law equation, extends it to other models, and finds/compares best fits. Using the attrition data from the Battle of Iwo Jima, we test the fitness (using R-squared values) of various Lanchester equations. Among many other discoveries, we find that Engel’s model (and many other models) fits the data very well.Lieutenant Commander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

A primer on using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate marksmanship

Purpose – Evaluating warfighter lethality is a critical aspect of military performance. Raw metrics such as marksmanship speed and accuracy can provide some insight, yet interpreting subtle differences can be challenging. For example, is a speed difference of 300 milliseconds more important than a 10% accuracy difference on the same drill? Marksmanship evaluations must have objective methods to differentiate between critical factors while maintaining a holistic view of human performance. Design/methodology/approach – Monte Carlo simulations are one method to circumvent speed/accuracy trade-offs within marksmanship evaluations. They can accommodate both speed and accuracy implications simultaneously without needing to hold one constant for the sake of the other. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can incorporate variability as a key element of performance. This approach thus allows analysts to determine consistency of performance expectations when projecting future outcomes. Findings – The review divides outcomes into both theoretical overview and practical implication sections. Each aspect of the Monte Carlo simulation can be addressed separately, reviewed and then incorporated as a potential component of small arms combat modeling. This application allows for new human performance practitioners to more quickly adopt the method for different applications. Originality/value – Performance implications are often presented as inferential statistics. By using the Monte Carlo simulations, practitioners can present outcomes in terms of lethality. This method should help convey the impact of any marksmanship evaluation to senior leadership better than current inferential statistics, such as effect size measures

Small arms combat modeling: a superior way to evaluate marksmanship data

Purpose – Marksmanship data is a staple of military and law enforcement evaluations. This ubiquitous nature creates a critical need to use all relevant information and to convey outcomes in a meaningful way for the end users. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how simple simulation techniques can improve interpretations of marksmanship data. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses three simulations to demonstrate the advantages of small arms combat modeling, including (1) the benefits of incorporating a Markov Chain into Monte Carlo shooting simulations; (2) how small arms combat modeling is superior to point-based evaluations; and (3) why continuous-time chains better capture performance than discrete-time chains. Findings – The proposed method reduces ambiguity in low-accuracy scenarios while also incorporating a more holistic view of performance as outcomes simultaneously incorporate speed and accuracy rather than holding one constant. Practical implications – This process determines the probability of winning an engagement against a given opponent while circumventing arbitrary discussions of speed and accuracy trade-offs. Someone wins 70% of combat engagements against a given opponent rather than scoring 15 more points. Moreover, risk exposure is quantified by determining the likely casualties suffered to achieve victory. This combination makes the practical consequences of human performance differences tangible to the end users. Taken together, this approach advances the operations research analyses of squad-level combat engagements. Originality/value – For more than a century, marksmanship evaluations have used point-based systems to classify shooters. However, these scoring methods were developed for competitive integrity rather than lethality as points do not adequately capture combat capabilities. The proposed method thus represents a major shift in the marksmanship scoring paradigm

The Myth of the Soviet Soldier: Envisioning the “Other” in Late-Cold War American Military Training Materials

To date, there has been an astonishing dearth of analysis on the ways in which enlisted personnel within the United States are presented with concepts of the outside world, and even less so on how this drastically differs from an American cultural zeitgeist. As Cold War ramifications continue to guide our modern contexts, this investigation looks into the split between American civilian and military representations of an ephemeral Soviet identity. This contrasting application of ethnography allows a new opportunity to examine how the United States military – an entity typically thought of as monolithic and unwieldy – navigated complex issues of identity politics and national antagonisms through internal educational publications. Embodied in their training materials, the Department of the Army demonstrates itself as surprisingly complex, agile, and measured in its portrayal of the Soviet and Russian opponent – especially when contrasted against certain exaggerations and stereotypes present in twentieth-century cultural products

Culture and Military Effectiveness: How Societal Traits Influence Battle Outcomes

What must states do to ensure victory on the field of battle? Conventional scholarship claims that a number of material and institutional factors significantly affect a nation’s ability to generate military power. Recent studies suggest that other factors, including levels of education, civil-military relations, and western culture also play an important role. This new line of logic is important because these factors tend to be glaringly absent from rigorous concepts of military power. The principle finding of this study is that culture matters and that it matters more than originally thought. Culture is admittedly complex, intangible, and difficult to count, but empirical evidence shows that culture manifests concrete effects in combat, at times determining battlefield outcomes. Culture’s absence from meaningful definitions of military power results in world leaders, military commanders, and learned scholars making important political, operational, and theoretical decisions with only partial information. Put plainly, decision-makers cannot accurately assess the martial capabilities of themselves or others without accounting for culture. Consequently, national leaders likely perceive threats where none exists; ignore threats that truly matter; place great trust in incapable allies, and turn away competent help. Moreover, this ignorance of what truly matters in combat means that much of a state’s potential military capability remains untapped and left to happenstance

Electronic warfare self-protection of battlefield helicopters : a holistic view

The dissertation seeks to increase understanding of electronic warfare (EW) self-protection (EWSP) of battlefield helicopters by taking a holistic (systems) view on EWSP. It also evaluates the methodologies used in the research and their suitability as descriptive tools in communication between various EWSP stakeholders. The interpretation of the term "holistic view" is a central theme to the dissertation. The research methodology is bottom-up – which is necessary since no previous work exists that could guide the study – and progresses from analysis to synthesis. Initially several methods are evaluated for presenting findings on EWSP, including high-level system simulation such as Forrester system dynamics (FSD). The analysis is conducted by a comprehensive literature review on EW and other areas that are believed to be of importance to the holistic view. Combat scenarios, intelligence, EW support, validation, training, and delays have major influence on the effectiveness of the EWSP suite; while the initial procurement decision on the EWSP suite sets limits to what can be achieved later. The need for a vast support structure for EWSP means that countries with limited intelligence and other resources become dependent on allies for support; that is, the question of EWSP effectiveness becomes political. The synthesis shows that a holistic view on EWSP of battlefield helicopters cannot be bounded in the temporal or hierarchical (organizational) senses. FSD is found to be helpful as a quality assurance tool, but refinements are needed if FSD is to be useful as a general discussion tool. The area of survivability is found to be the best match for the holistic view – for an EWSP suprasystem. A global survivability paradigm is defined as the ultimate holistic view on EWSP. It is suggested that future research should be top-down and aiming at promoting the global survivability paradigm. The survivability paradigm would give EWSP a natural framework in which its merits can be assessed objectively.reviewe