8,867 research outputs found
Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia
The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma,
as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to
provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3)
concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time
series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3
concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent
statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring
stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The
first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban
represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban
located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at
Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the
characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data
of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2),
carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH)
were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector
autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive
moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance
error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and
Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for
VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained
the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and
normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and
Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the
lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system
for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each
monitoring station
Parallel Implementation of Efficient Search Schemes for the Inference of Cancer Progression Models
The emergence and development of cancer is a consequence of the accumulation
over time of genomic mutations involving a specific set of genes, which
provides the cancer clones with a functional selective advantage. In this work,
we model the order of accumulation of such mutations during the progression,
which eventually leads to the disease, by means of probabilistic graphic
models, i.e., Bayesian Networks (BNs). We investigate how to perform the task
of learning the structure of such BNs, according to experimental evidence,
adopting a global optimization meta-heuristics. In particular, in this work we
rely on Genetic Algorithms, and to strongly reduce the execution time of the
inference -- which can also involve multiple repetitions to collect
statistically significant assessments of the data -- we distribute the
calculations using both multi-threading and a multi-node architecture. The
results show that our approach is characterized by good accuracy and
specificity; we also demonstrate its feasibility, thanks to a 84x reduction of
the overall execution time with respect to a traditional sequential
implementation
Telecommunications Network Planning and Maintenance
Telecommunications network operators are on a constant challenge to provide new services which require ubiquitous broadband access. In an attempt to do so, they are faced with many problems such as the network coverage or providing the guaranteed Quality of Service (QoS). Network planning is a multi-objective optimization problem which involves clustering the area of interest by minimizing a cost function which includes relevant parameters, such as installation cost, distance between user and base station, supported traffic, quality of received signal, etc. On the other hand, service assurance deals with the disorders that occur in hardware or software of the managed network. This paper presents a large number of multicriteria techniques that have been developed to deal with different kinds of problems regarding network planning and service assurance. The state of the art presented will help the reader to develop a broader understanding of the problems in the domain
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