Approximation of event probabilities in noisy cellular processes

Molecular noise, which arises from the randomness of the discrete events in the cell, significantly influences fundamental biological processes. Discrete-state continuous-time stochastic models (CTMC) can be used to describe such effects, but the calculation of the probabilities of certain events is computationally expensive. We present a comparison of two analysis approaches for CTMC. On one hand, we estimate the probabilities of interest using repeated Gillespie simulation and determine the statistical accuracy that we obtain. On the other hand, we apply a numerical reachability analysis that approximates the probability distributions of the system at several time instances. We use examples of cellular processes to demonstrate the superiority of the reachability analysis if accurate results are required

Formalisms for specifying Markovian population models

In this survey, we compare several languages for specifying Markovian population models such as queuing networks and chemical reaction networks. All these languages — matrix descriptions, stochastic Petri nets, stoichiometric equations, stochastic process algebras, and guarded command models — describe continuous-time Markov chains, but they differ according to important properties, such as compositionality, expressiveness and succinctness, executability, and ease of use. Moreover, they provide different support for checking the well-formedness of a model and for analyzing a model

Solving the chemical master equation using sliding windows

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The chemical master equation (CME) is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the evolution of a network of chemical reactions as a stochastic process. Its solution yields the probability density vector of the system at each point in time. Solving the CME numerically is in many cases computationally expensive or even infeasible as the number of reachable states can be very large or infinite. We introduce the sliding window method, which computes an approximate solution of the CME by performing a sequence of local analysis steps. In each step, only a manageable subset of states is considered, representing a "window" into the state space. In subsequent steps, the window follows the direction in which the probability mass moves, until the time period of interest has elapsed. We construct the window based on a deterministic approximation of the future behavior of the system by estimating upper and lower bounds on the populations of the chemical species.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In order to show the effectiveness of our approach, we apply it to several examples previously described in the literature. The experimental results show that the proposed method speeds up the analysis considerably, compared to a global analysis, while still providing high accuracy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The sliding window method is a novel approach to address the performance problems of numerical algorithms for the solution of the chemical master equation. The method efficiently approximates the probability distributions at the time points of interest for a variety of chemically reacting systems, including systems for which no upper bound on the population sizes of the chemical species is known a priori.</p

Hybrid Numerical Solution of the Chemical Master Equation

We present a numerical approximation technique for the analysis of continuous-time Markov chains that describe networks of biochemical reactions and play an important role in the stochastic modeling of biological systems. Our approach is based on the construction of a stochastic hybrid model in which certain discrete random variables of the original Markov chain are approximated by continuous deterministic variables. We compute the solution of the stochastic hybrid model using a numerical algorithm that discretizes time and in each step performs a mutual update of the transient probability distribution of the discrete stochastic variables and the values of the continuous deterministic variables. We implemented the algorithm and we demonstrate its usefulness and efficiency on several case studies from systems biology

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationOver the past few decades, synthetic biology has generated great interest to biologists and engineers alike. Synthetic biology combines the research of biology with the engineering principles of standards, abstraction, and automated construction with the ultimate goal of being able to design and build useful biological systems. To realize this goal, researchers are actively working on better ways to model and analyze synthetic genetic circuits, groupings of genes that influence the expression of each other through the use of proteins. When designing and analyzing genetic circuits, researchers are often interested in building circuits that exhibit a particular behavior. Usually, this involves simulating their models to produce some time series data and analyzing this data to discern whether or not the circuit behaves appropriately. This method becomes less attractive as circuits grow in complexity because it becomes very time consuming to generate a sufficient amount of runs for analysis. In addition, trying to select representative runs out of a large data set is tedious and error-prone thereby motivating methods of automating this analysis. This has led to the need for design space exploration techniques that allow synthetic biologists to easily explore the effect of varying parameters and efficiently consider alternative designs of their systems. This dissertation attempts to address this need by proposing new analysis and verification techniques for synthetic genetic circuits. In particular, it applies formal methods such as model checking techniques to models of genetic circuits in order to ensure that they behave correctly and are as robust as possible for a variety of different inputs and/or parameter settings. However, model checking stochastic systems is not as simple as model checking deterministic systems where it is always known what the next state of the system will be at any given step. Stochastic systems can exhibit a variety of different behaviors that are chosen randomly with different probabilities at each time step. Therefore, model checking a stochastic system involves calculating the probability that the system will exhibit a desired behavior. Although it is often more difficult to work with the probabilities that stochastic systems introduce, stochastic systems and the models that represent them are becoming commonplace in many disciplines including electronic circuit design where as parts are being made smaller and smaller, they are becoming less reliable. In addition to stochastic model checking, this dissertation proposes a new incremental stochastic simulation algorithm (iSSA) based on Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) that is capable of presenting a researcher with a simulation trace of the typical behavior of the system. Before the development of this algorithm, discerning this information was extremely error-prone as it involved performing many simulations and attempting to wade through the massive amounts of data. This algorithm greatly aids researchers in designing genetic circuits as it efficiently shows the researcher the most likely behavior of the circuit. Both the iSSA and stochastic model checking can be used in concert to give a researcher the likelihood that the system will exhibit its most typical behavior. Once the typical behavior is known, properties for nontypical behaviors can be constructed and their likelihoods can also be computed. This methodology is applied to several genetic circuits leading to new understanding of the effects of various parameters on the behavior of these circuits

Propagation Models for Biochemical Reaction Networks

In this thesis we investigate different ways of approximating the solution of the chemical master equation (CME). The CME is a system of differential equations that models the stochastic transient behaviour of biochemical reaction networks. It does so by describing the time evolution of probability distribution over the states of a Markov chain that represents a biological network, and thus its stochasticity is only implicit. The transient solution of a CME is the vector of probabilities over the states of the corresponding Markov chain at a certain time point t, and it has traditionally been obtained by applying methods that are general to continuous-time Markov chains: uniformization, Krylov subspace methods, and general ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers such as the fourth order Runge-Kutta method. Even though biochemical reaction networks are the main application of our work, some of our results are presented in the more general framework of propagation models (PM), a computational formalism that we introduce in the first part of this thesis. Each propagation model N has two associated propagation processes, one in discrete-time and a second one in continuous-time. These propagation processes propagate a generic mass through a discrete state space. For example, in order to model a CME, N propagates probability mass. In the discrete-time case the propagation is done step-wise, while in the continuous-time case it is done in a continuous flow defined by a differential equation. Again, in the case of the chemical master equation, this differential equation is the equivalent of the chemical master equation itself where probability mass is propagated through a discrete state space. Discrete-time propagation processes can encode methods such as the uniformization method and the fourth order Runge-Kutta integration method that we have mentioned above, and thus by optimizing propagation algorithms we optimize both of these methods simultaneously. In the second part of our thesis, we define stochastic hybrid models that approximate the stochastic behaviour of biochemical reaction networks by treating some variables of the system deterministically. This deterministic approximation is done for species with large populations, for which stochasticity does not play an important role. We propose three such hybrid models, which we introduce from the coarsest to the most refined one: (i) the first one replaces some variables of the system with their overall expectations, (ii) the second one replaces some variables of the system with their expectations conditioned on the values of the stochastic variables, (iii) and finally, the third one, splits each variable into a stochastic part (for low valuations) and a deterministic part (for high valuations), while tracking the conditional expectation of the deterministic part. For each of these algorithms we give the corresponding propagation models that propagate not only probabilities but also the respective continuous approximations for the deterministic variables

Approximation of event probabilities in noisy cellular processes

Abstract. Molecular noise, which arises from the randomness of the discrete events in the cell, significantly influences fundamental biological processes. Discrete-state continuous-time stochastic models (CTMC) can be used to describe such effects, but the calculation of the probabilities of certain events is computationally expensive. We present a comparison of two analysis approaches for CTMC. On one hand, we estimate the probabilities of interest using repeated Gillespie simulation and determine the statistical accuracy that we obtain. On the other hand, we apply a numerical reachability analysis that approximates the probability distributions of the system at several time instances. We use examples of cellular processes to demonstrate the superiority of the reachability analysis if accurate results are required.

Computational Methods in Systems Biology, 7th International Conference, CMSB 2009

none2siThe proceedings contain 21 papers. The topics discussed include: modelling biological clocks with bio-PEPA: stochasticity and robustness for the neurospora crassa circadian network; quantitative pathway logic for computational biology; a prize-collecting steiner tree approach for transduction network inference; formal analysis of the genetic toggle; control strategies for the regulation of the eukaryotic heat shock response; computing reachable states for nonlinear biological models; on coupling models using model-checking: effects of irinotecan injections on the mammalian cell cycle; approximation of event probabilities in noisy cellular processes; equivalence and discretisation in bio-PEPA; improved parameter estimation for completely observed ordinary differential equations with application to biological systems; a Bayesian approach to model checking biological systems; probabilistic approximations of signaling pathway dynamics; and a reduction of logical regulatory graphs preserving essential dynamical properties.noneP. Degano; R. GorrieriP. Degano; R. Gorrier