Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Reliability assessment of cutting tool life based on surrogate approximation methods

A novel reliability estimation approach to the cutting tools based on advanced approximation methods is proposed. Methods such as the stochastic response surface and surrogate modeling are tested, starting from a few sample points obtained through fundamental experiments and extending them to models able to estimate the tool wear as a function of the key process parameters. Subsequently, different reliability analysis methods are employed such as Monte Carlo simulations and first- and second-order reliability methods. In the present study, these reliability analysis methods are assessed for estimating the reliability of cutting tools. The results show that the proposed method is an efficient method for assessing the reliability of the cutting tool based on the minimum number of experimental results. Experimental verification for the case of high-speed turning confirms the findings of the present study for cutting tools under flank wear

An adaptive sampling method for global sensitivity analysis based on least-squares support vector regression

In the field of engineering, surrogate models are commonly used for approximating the behavior of a physical phenomenon in order to reduce the computational costs. Generally, a surrogate model is created based on a set of training data, where a typical method for the statistical design is the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Even though a space filling distribution of the training data is reached, the sampling process takes no information on the underlying behavior of the physical phenomenon into account and new data cannot be sampled in the same distribution if the approximation quality is not sufficient. Therefore, in this study we present a novel adaptive sampling method based on a specific surrogate model, the least-squares support vector regresson. The adaptive sampling method generates training data based on the uncertainty in local prognosis capabilities of the surrogate model - areas of higher uncertainty require more sample data. The approach offers a cost efficient calculation due to the properties of the least-squares support vector regression. The opportunities of the adaptive sampling method are proven in comparison with the LHS on different analytical examples. Furthermore, the adaptive sampling method is applied to the calculation of global sensitivity values according to Sobol, where it shows faster convergence than the LHS method. With the applications in this paper it is shown that the presented adaptive sampling method improves the estimation of global sensitivity values, hence reducing the overall computational costs visibly

ADAPTS: An Intelligent Sustainable Conceptual Framework for Engineering Projects

This paper presents a conceptual framework for the optimization of environmental sustainability in engineering projects, both for products and industrial facilities or processes. The main objective of this work is to propose a conceptual framework to help researchers to approach optimization under the criteria of sustainability of engineering projects, making use of current Machine Learning techniques. For the development of this conceptual framework, a bibliographic search has been carried out on the Web of Science. From the selected documents and through a hermeneutic procedure the texts have been analyzed and the conceptual framework has been carried out. A graphic representation pyramid shape is shown to clearly define the variables of the proposed conceptual framework and their relationships. The conceptual framework consists of 5 dimensions; its acronym is ADAPTS. In the base are: (1) the Application to which it is intended, (2) the available DAta, (3) the APproach under which it is operated, and (4) the machine learning Tool used. At the top of the pyramid, (5) the necessary Sensing. A study case is proposed to show its applicability. This work is part of a broader line of research, in terms of optimization under sustainability criteria.Telefónica Chair “Intelligence in Networks” of the University of Seville (Spain