Analysis of container throughput: Demand forecast and seaport competitiveness assessment

Seaports play a crucial role in the container industry, where they act as important nodes in the transport chain to facilitate international trade. In a competitive market, port capacity plays a significant role in defining its competitive position to attract demand and avoid congestion. Failing to provide suitable capacity results in the loss of market share. Therefore, port decision-makers face the challenge of maintaining and developing suitable port facilities to provide efficient services to port users. One of the aspects that decision-makers consider in the planning and development process is analyzing container demand. The analysis of container demand can be challenging due to the dynamic changes in international trade, port location and accessibility, competition from other ports in the same geographic region, and port selection behavior of shippers and liner companies. This dissertation focuses on analyzing container demand; specifically, it has two main objectives: Forecasting short-term container demand and assessing the competitiveness position of the port. To forecast demand, the univariate time series stochastic approach is applied based on the methodology of Box-Jenkin, and because it only requires the historical container throughput. The developed model is used to forecast container demand of Jeddah port. The proposed model provides accurate forecasts with a confidence interval of 93 Percent. The systematic forecasting approach provides the ability to update and apply the methodology continuously in the future. To assess port competitiveness, spatial interaction models (SIM) are applied to estimate the impact of port performance, hinterland accessibility, and geographic location on the container flow. Both temporal and spatial data are collected for the four major ports in Saudi Arabia, which are analyzed in the case studies and SIM calibrations. The analyses performed in this study revealed that port users, as the results of modernization and privatization of the transport sector of the country, are provided with feasible port alternatives to efficiently transport freight, leading to fierce inter-port competition. The analysis also reveals that maritime connectivity of ports located in the Red Sea have a competitive advantage that allow them to attract more container flow and reach further hinterland regions when freight rates increase. This is due to their strategic location in the major maritime shipping routes. However, the availability of railway connectivity provides cheaper inland alternative that restricts the importance of maritime accessibility. This dissertation should be of interest to policy and port-decision makers. The applied forecast model is important in the planning phase of resource allocation and facility improvements because it provides a reliable instrument to obtain insight into the future demand. The assessment of port competition helps decision-makers in evaluating the impact of port strategies by understanding the competitive position of the ports. Recognizing the scarcity of systematic research on Saudi Arabian seaports suggests that these forms of forecast analysis and competitive assessment will benefit the port sector in the country

The Design of Stacking Yards Management of The Early Warning System Model: A case study in Jakarta International Container Terminal, Indonesia

As a part of the Indonesia-National Logistics System, Jakarta International Container Terminal (JITC), facing a long dwell time which impacts to high yard occupancy ratio (YOR). This is happened because of the long necessary documents of clearance processing time, the limited yard provided, and the owners preferring for storing their goods in the terminal for cost reasons, etc. The objectives of this research are to design an early warning system model to avoid YOR above the normal by using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS); designing the inter-agency institutional collaboration to apply the model by using interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM); and formulating YOR above normal mitigation strategy. The primary data used are collected through the in-depth interviews and the focus group discussions with the multi-discipline experts. The secondary data are collected from JITC daily operations and from other supporting agencies. The proposed model is validated, verified and tested. It shows the promising results. Keywords: dwell time, yard occupancy ratio, institution model, ANFIS, ISM

Port competitiveness in North East Asia : an integrated fuzzy approach to expert evaluations

Despite the fact that the Northeast Asia (NEA) region, which had four of the top five and 20 of the top 30 container ports in the world in 2003, can be regarded as holding a central position in liner shipping and the handling of container cargo volumes, very little research has been done into the evaluation of its port competitiveness (EPC). For this reason, the EPC in NEA can be regarded as a problematic and urgent issue to be solved, and worthy of academic attention. From this aspect, this research set out to attempt to address the above issue by means of utilizing expert knowledge. However, the EPC contains problems of complex multipleattributes and multiple-hierarchies (CMAMH). In addition, difficulties concerning certain characteristics of evaluation such as complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity are also involved. To deal with such problems, in this research, the employment of integrated fuzzy evaluation (IFE) as a methodology was decided upon. As a result of the adaptation of the methodology, certain indications from this research to the theory and practice for container ports have emerged and are clearly identifiable. With regard to theory, this study has contributed to theoretical development significantly in four ways. First, the factors and taxonomy of port competitiveness for the container ports in NEA have been provided for the first time. Second, this is the first integrated approach for the EPC in NEA, the most competitive area in the world. Third, this research was also the first to attempt extracting critical weak points and/or influential factors affecting current port competitiveness. Finally, the adoption of IFE made it possible for the first time to uncover the interactive relationships between the competing container ports. In terms of practice, this research has also provided certain contributions of utmost importance. First of all, the study has provided a suggestion for the most recent port ranking in respect of port competitiveness. Moreover, changes in competitiveness power, which are dynamically and interactively affected by the relationship between the ports, have been successfully estimated and suggested. Thus, such changes in the competitiveness in NEA can now be easily forecasted by port actors

Decision Support System for Container Port Selection using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis

Ports are essential for maritime transportation and global supply chains since they are nodes that connect the sea- and land-based modes of transportation. With containerization and supply chains stimulating global trade, ports are challenged to adjust to changes in the market to create value to their customers. Therefore, this dissertation research focuses on the container port selection decision analysis to provide information to help shipping lines select the best port for their shipping networks. Since the problem is complex, dynamic, and involves multiple and conflicting criteria, the research proposes to use the multi-objective decision analysis with Value-Focused Thinking approach. The first chapter analyzes the port selection literature by timeline, journals, geographical location, and focus of the studies. Also, the research identifies the multiple criteria used in the port selection literature, as well as the models and approaches used for the analysis of the port selection decision problem. The second chapter develops a container port selection decision model for shipping lines using ports in West Africa. This model uses a multi-attribute value theory with valued-focused thinking and Alternative-Focused Thinking methodologies. The third chapter develops a port selection decision support system for shipping lines to select the best port in the U.S. Gulf Coast considering the impact of the Panama Canal’s expansion. The decision support system uses the multi-objective decision analysis with Value-Focused Thinking approach, incorporating the opinion of an industry expert for the development of the value model. It also includes a cost model to quantify the cost of the alternatives. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to help decision makers understand the value and cost risks of the decision. The contribution of this research is that it provides a tool to decision makers of the shipping lines industry to improve the decision making process to select the port that will add the most affordable value to the global supply chains of their customers. In addition, researchers can use the proposed methodology for future port selection studies in other regions and from the perspectives of other stakeholders

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process: An Icelandic Case of the Ports of Isafjordur Network

Ports have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. In this unstable world, ports as dynamic systems are developed under a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, black-swan events, for instance, the financial crisis in 2008, the avalanche in Flateyri (Iceland) in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 make successful port planning a challenging task. Indeed, the ever-increasing complexity of a port system and its long technical lifetime make uncertainty considerations inevitable in the planning process. Therefore, this research presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties, including opportunities and vulnerabilities, in the port planning process. To this end, a structured stakeholder analysis is performed to effectively and timely engage stakeholders in the planning process. Fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface is used to identify the salient stakeholders. Subsequently, the success of the future port is defined in terms of the specific objectives of the stakeholders. To develop this definition, a problem structuring method and fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method are synthesized. Then, a port throughput forecast is conducted that accounts for epistemic uncertainty, including model and parameters uncertainties, and thus increases the reliability of forecast results. The method identifies the influencing macroeconomic variables on port throughput by mutual information and then applies the Bayesian statistical method to forecast the port throughput. Effective actions are planned to seize opportunities and manage vulnerabilities that manifest in the projected lifetime. Therefore, the port can adapt or better withstand the vagaries of the future. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty and facilitates adaptive port planning. The framework is applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results indicate that the uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-time horizon, while in the middle-time horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities.Hið öfluga og sívaxandi flókna eðli hafnarkerfa í margbreytilegum heimi skapar mikla óvissu varðandi þróunaráætlanir hafna. Enn fremur þá leiða óvæntir atburðir, svonefndir svartir svanir, eins og til dæmis efnahagshrunið 2008, snjóflóðið á Flateyri 2020 og COVID-19 faraldurinn, til þess að skipulagsgerð hafna er sérstaklega krefjandi verkefni sem er háð mikilli óvissu. Flækjustig hafnarkerfa og óvissa á löngum líftíma hafna gerir það óumflýjanlegt að taka tillit til óvissu í skipulagsferlinu. Þessi rannsókn setur fram skipulagsramma til að takast á við óvissu, þar á meðal tækifæri og veikleika, í skipulagsferli hafnar. Þessi rannsókn kynnir skipulagða hagsmunagreiningu til að virkja hagsmunaaðila hafna tímanlega í skipulagsferlinu. Þrívíddar ákvörðunaryfirborð byggt á loðinni (e. fuzzy) rökfræði er notað til að bera kennsl á mikilvæga hagsmunaaðila með mismunandi áhrif og hagsmuni. Í kjölfarið er árangur skipulagsins skilgreindur út frá markmiðum hagsmunaaðila og með samtvinnun eldri aðferðar og loðinnar rökfræði. Notuð er aðferð við gerð spár fyrir flæði um höfnina sem tekur tillit til þekkingaróvissu og eykur þannig áreiðanleika niðurstaðna spárinnar. Aðferðin skilgreinir þjóðhagslega áhrifaþætti á afkastagetu hafna með aðferð gagnkvæmra upplýsinga (e. mutual information) og beitir síðan Bayesískri tölfræði til að spá fyrir um afköst hafnarinnar. Árangursríkar aðgerðir eiga að geta nýtt tækifæri og takmarkað veikleika á áætluðum líftíma hafnarinnar, þar sem höfnin getur aðlagast eða þolað duttlunga framtíðarinnar betur. Sá ólínuleiki í að takast á við óvissu með því að beita skipulagsrammanum stuðlar að betra hafnarskipulagi. Skipulagsamminn styður ákvarðanatöku í óvissu umhverfi með því að auðvelda sveigjanlega skipulagsgerð fyrir hafnir. Skipulagsrammanum er beitt á hafnir Ísafjarðar. Helstu niðurstöður benda til þess að óvissan feli aðallega í sér tækifæri til skamms tíma, en til lengri tíma stendur hafnarkerfið frammi fyrir veikleikum.University of Iceland, Municipality of Isafjordur, Icelandic Road and Coastal AdministrationFina