Failure mode prediction and energy forecasting of PV plants to assist dynamic maintenance tasks by ANN based models

In the field of renewable energy, reliability analysis techniques combining the operating time of the system with the observation of operational and environmental conditions, are gaining importance over time. In this paper, reliability models are adapted to incorporate monitoring data on operating assets, as well as information on their environmental conditions, in their calculations. To that end, a logical decision tool based on two artificial neural networks models is presented. This tool allows updating assets reliability analysis according to changes in operational and/or environmental conditions. The proposed tool could easily be automated within a supervisory control and data acquisition system, where reference values and corresponding warnings and alarms could be now dynamically generated using the tool. Thanks to this capability, on-line diagnosis and/or potential asset degradation prediction can be certainly improved. Reliability models in the tool presented are developed according to the available amount of failure data and are used for early detection of degradation in energy production due to power inverter and solar trackers functional failures. Another capability of the tool presented in the paper is to assess the economic risk associated with the system under existing conditions and for a certain period of time. This information can then also be used to trigger preventive maintenance activities

Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants

Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation. One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent outputs for the di erent techniques

Structural health monitoring of offshore wind turbines: A review through the Statistical Pattern Recognition Paradigm

Offshore Wind has become the most profitable renewable energy source due to the remarkable development it has experienced in Europe over the last decade. In this paper, a review of Structural Health Monitoring Systems (SHMS) for offshore wind turbines (OWT) has been carried out considering the topic as a Statistical Pattern Recognition problem. Therefore, each one of the stages of this paradigm has been reviewed focusing on OWT application. These stages are: Operational Evaluation; Data Acquisition, Normalization and Cleansing; Feature Extraction and Information Condensation; and Statistical Model Development. It is expected that optimizing each stage, SHMS can contribute to the development of efficient Condition-Based Maintenance Strategies. Optimizing this strategy will help reduce labor costs of OWTs׳ inspection, avoid unnecessary maintenance, identify design weaknesses before failure, improve the availability of power production while preventing wind turbines׳ overloading, therefore, maximizing the investments׳ return. In the forthcoming years, a growing interest in SHM technologies for OWT is expected, enhancing the potential of offshore wind farm deployments further offshore. Increasing efficiency in operational management will contribute towards achieving UK׳s 2020 and 2050 targets, through ultimately reducing the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE)

AI and OR in management of operations: history and trends

The last decade has seen a considerable growth in the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for operations management with the aim of finding solutions to problems that are increasing in complexity and scale. This paper begins by setting the context for the survey through a historical perspective of OR and AI. An extensive survey of applications of AI techniques for operations management, covering a total of over 1200 papers published from 1995 to 2004 is then presented. The survey utilizes Elsevier's ScienceDirect database as a source. Hence, the survey may not cover all the relevant journals but includes a sufficiently wide range of publications to make it representative of the research in the field. The papers are categorized into four areas of operations management: (a) design, (b) scheduling, (c) process planning and control and (d) quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis. Each of the four areas is categorized in terms of the AI techniques used: genetic algorithms, case-based reasoning, knowledge-based systems, fuzzy logic and hybrid techniques. The trends over the last decade are identified, discussed with respect to expected trends and directions for future work suggested

A Process to Implement an Artificial Neural Network and Association Rules Techniques to Improve Asset Performance and Energy Efficiency

In this paper, we address the problem of asset performance monitoring, with the intention of both detecting any potential reliability problem and predicting any loss of energy consumption e ciency. This is an important concern for many industries and utilities with very intensive capitalization in very long-lasting assets. To overcome this problem, in this paper we propose an approach to combine an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with Data Mining (DM) tools, specifically with Association Rule (AR) Mining. The combination of these two techniques can now be done using software which can handle large volumes of data (big data), but the process still needs to ensure that the required amount of data will be available during the assets’ life cycle and that its quality is acceptable. The combination of these two techniques in the proposed sequence di ers from previous works found in the literature, giving researchers new options to face the problem. Practical implementation of the proposed approach may lead to novel predictive maintenance models (emerging predictive analytics) that may detect with unprecedented precision any asset’s lack of performance and help manage assets’ O&M accordingly. The approach is illustrated using specific examples where asset performance monitoring is rather complex under normal operational conditions.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad DPI2015-70842-