Technology Trajectory Mapping Using Data Envelopment Analysis: The Ex-ante use of Disruptive Innovation Theory on Flat Panel Technologies

In this paper, we propose a technology trajectory mapping approach using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that scrutinizes technology progress patterns from multidimensional perspectives. Literature reviews on technology trajectory mappings have revealed that it is imperative to identify key performance measures that can represent different value propositions and then apply them to the investigation of technology systems in order to capture indications of the future disruption. The proposed approach provides a flexibility not only to take multiple characteristics of technology systems into account but also to deal with various tradeoffs among technology attributes by imposing weight restrictions in the DEA model. The application of this approach to the flat panel technologies is provided to give a strategic insight for the players involved

Exponential atlases: a metaphysical approach to the organizational rapid growth.

According to Greek mythology, Atlas held up the sky on his shoulders. Nowadays, the term atlas refers to “a book of maps or charts” (1). In this paper, the term is used in both senses. On the one hand, the purpose is to understand the conditions favoring – hold up – the birth and the evolution of exponential organizations. On the other hand, the goal is to draw a concept map that allows us to identify the interactional dynamics among the actors involved in this evaluative process. In other words, first I'll try to know who “holds up the sky” (static interpretation), and then we will see who “lives in it” (moving interpretation). The idea is that disruptive innovation mediates the relationship between environmental/organizational features (conditions) and exponential growth (phenomenon). So far, little consideration has been given to the favorable conditions that can allow organizations to become exponential. This paper aims to pave the way for future systematized research on the ExO’s genesis and development

Ex-Ante Prediction of Disruptive Innovation: The Case of Battery Technologies

Battery technologies represent a highly relevant field that is undergoing conversions in the context of, for instance, battery electric vehicles or stationary power storage for renewable energies. Currently, lithium-ion batteries represent the predominant technology that has, however, a considerable environmental impact that could hinder the emergence of sustainable energy systems. Driven by these conversions, several authors claim that potentially disruptive technologies could occur. The concept of disruptive innovation has been highly regarded in research and practice, but has only been successfully regarded from an ex-post perspective. However, without the possibility to establish ex-ante predictions of disruptive innovation, several authors disregard the concept of having significant relevance for practice. In response to this research gap, the present paper attempts to establish an ex-ante prediction of potential disruptive innovation. The method is based on the disruption hazard model by Sood and Tellis, testing seven hypotheses regarding a potential disruption hazard of redox-flow batteries towards lithium-ion batteries. The paper finds that redox-flow batteries could represent a disruptive technology, but this evaluation is limited to an expert evaluation. The authors discuss this finding, as the technical characteristics of redox-flow batteries support its role as a potential disruptive innovation, concluding with implications, limitations as well as suggestions for future research

Analysis of industry equilibria in models with sustaining and disruptive technology

This paper analyzes a special type of technology evolution, referred to in the literature as disruptive technology vs. sustaining technology. In general, "old" products based on sustaining technology are perceived to be superior to the "new" ones based on disruptive technology. However, the latter have distinctive features that allow them to attract an exclusive set of customers. Examples include notebooks vs. netbooks, hard-disk drives vs. solid-state drives, laser printers vs. inkjet printers, etc. We consider a model with an established firm and an entrant firm that have heterogeneous product-offering capabilities: the established firm can offer either or both types of products, while the entrant firm can only offer new products. Firms make capacity, pricing, and quantity decisions that maximize their ex-ante profit. Within this framework, we analyze deterministic games with perfect information and stochastic games with uncertain valuation of the disruptive technology. Equilibrium decisions are discussed under various market conditions, as well as under dedicated vs. flexible capacity assumptions. While over-investment and over-production may occur in a stochastic game with dedicated capacities, the equilibrium capacity decisions seem to be more "rational" if the established firm utilizes flexibly capacity, or if the dedicated capacity can be converted ex-post (albeit at some expense).Disruptive technology Competition Capacity Pricing Nash equilibrium New product introduction