Influence Analysis for Online Social Networks

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Modelling Web Usage in a Changing Environment

Eiben, A.E. [Promotor]Kowalczyk, W. [Copromotor

Investigations into Elasticity in Cloud Computing

The pay-as-you-go model supported by existing cloud infrastructure providers is appealing to most application service providers to deliver their applications in the cloud. Within this context, elasticity of applications has become one of the most important features in cloud computing. This elasticity enables real-time acquisition/release of compute resources to meet application performance demands. In this thesis we investigate the problem of delivering cost-effective elasticity services for cloud applications. Traditionally, the application level elasticity addresses the question of how to scale applications up and down to meet their performance requirements, but does not adequately address issues relating to minimising the costs of using the service. With this current limitation in mind, we propose a scaling approach that makes use of cost-aware criteria to detect the bottlenecks within multi-tier cloud applications, and scale these applications only at bottleneck tiers to reduce the costs incurred by consuming cloud infrastructure resources. Our approach is generic for a wide class of multi-tier applications, and we demonstrate its effectiveness by studying the behaviour of an example electronic commerce site application. Furthermore, we consider the characteristics of the algorithm for implementing the business logic of cloud applications, and investigate the elasticity at the algorithm level: when dealing with large-scale data under resource and time constraints, the algorithm's output should be elastic with respect to the resource consumed. We propose a novel framework to guide the development of elastic algorithms that adapt to the available budget while guaranteeing the quality of output result, e.g. prediction accuracy for classification tasks, improves monotonically with the used budget.Comment: 211 pages, 27 tables, 75 figure

Ubiquitous intelligence for smart cities: a public safety approach

Citizen-centered safety enhancement is an integral component of public safety and a top priority for decision makers in a smart city development. However, public safety agencies are constantly faced with the challenge of deterring crime. While most smart city initiatives have placed emphasis on the use of modern technology for fighting crime, this may not be sufficient to achieve a sustainable safe and smart city in a resource constrained environment, such as in Africa. In particular, crime series which is a set of crimes considered to have been committed by the same offender is currently less explored in developing nations and has great potential in helping to fight against crime and promoting safety in smart cities. This research focuses on detecting the situation of crime through data mining approaches that can be used to promote citizens' safety, and assist security agencies in knowledge-driven decision support, such as crime series identification. While much research has been conducted on crime hotspots, not enough has been done in the area of identifying crime series. This thesis presents a novel crime clustering model, CriClust, for crime series pattern (CSP) detection and mapping to derive useful knowledge from a crime dataset, drawing on sound scientific and mathematical principles, as well as assumptions from theories of environmental criminology. The analysis is augmented using a dual-threshold model, and pattern prevalence information is encoded in similarity graphs. Clusters are identified by finding highly-connected subgraphs using adaptive graph size and Monte-Carlo heuristics in the Karger-Stein mincut algorithm. We introduce two new interest measures: (i) Proportion Difference Evaluation (PDE), which reveals the propagation effect of a series and dominant series; and (ii) Pattern Space Enumeration (PSE), which reveals underlying strong correlations and defining features for a series. Our findings on experimental quasi-real data set, generated based on expert knowledge recommendation, reveal that identifying CSP and statistically interpretable patterns could contribute significantly to strengthening public safety service delivery in a smart city development. Evaluation was conducted to investigate: (i) the reliability of the model in identifying all inherent series in a crime dataset; (ii) the scalability of the model with varying crime records volume; and (iii) unique features of the model compared to competing baseline algorithms and related research. It was found that Monte Carlo technique and adaptive graph size mechanism for crime similarity clustering yield substantial improvement. The study also found that proportion estimation (PDE) and PSE of series clusters can provide valuable insight into crime deterrence strategies. Furthermore, visual enhancement of clusters using graphical approaches to organising information and presenting a unified viable view promotes a prompt identification of important areas demanding attention. Our model particularly attempts to preserve desirable and robust statistical properties. This research presents considerable empirical evidence that the proposed crime cluster (CriClust) model is promising and can assist in deriving useful crime pattern knowledge, contributing knowledge services for public safety authorities and intelligence gathering organisations in developing nations, thereby promoting a sustainable "safe and smart" city