Exact two-terminal reliability of some directed networks

The calculation of network reliability in a probabilistic context has long been an issue of practical and academic importance. Conventional approaches (determination of bounds, sums of disjoint products algorithms, Monte Carlo evaluations, studies of the reliability polynomials, etc.) only provide approximations when the network's size increases, even when nodes do not fail and all edges have the same reliability p. We consider here a directed, generic graph of arbitrary size mimicking real-life long-haul communication networks, and give the exact, analytical solution for the two-terminal reliability. This solution involves a product of transfer matrices, in which individual reliabilities of edges and nodes are taken into account. The special case of identical edge and node reliabilities (p and rho, respectively) is addressed. We consider a case study based on a commonly-used configuration, and assess the influence of the edges being directed (or not) on various measures of network performance. While the two-terminal reliability, the failure frequency and the failure rate of the connection are quite similar, the locations of complex zeros of the two-terminal reliability polynomials exhibit strong differences, and various structure transitions at specific values of rho. The present work could be extended to provide a catalog of exactly solvable networks in terms of reliability, which could be useful as building blocks for new and improved bounds, as well as benchmarks, in the general case

Transient Reward Approximation for Continuous-Time Markov Chains

We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power grids, of computer virus vulnerability, and in the study of crowd dynamics. We use abstraction techniques together with novel algorithms for the computation of bounds on the expected final and accumulated rewards in continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs). These ingredients are combined in a partly symbolic and partly explicit (symblicit) analysis approach. In particular, we circumvent the use of multi-terminal decision diagrams, because the latter do not work well if facing a large number of different rates. We demonstrate the practical applicability and efficiency of the approach on two case studies.Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Reliabilit

Exact Computation of Influence Spread by Binary Decision Diagrams

Evaluating influence spread in social networks is a fundamental procedure to estimate the word-of-mouth effect in viral marketing. There are enormous studies about this topic; however, under the standard stochastic cascade models, the exact computation of influence spread is known to be #P-hard. Thus, the existing studies have used Monte-Carlo simulation-based approximations to avoid exact computation. We propose the first algorithm to compute influence spread exactly under the independent cascade model. The algorithm first constructs binary decision diagrams (BDDs) for all possible realizations of influence spread, then computes influence spread by dynamic programming on the constructed BDDs. To construct the BDDs efficiently, we designed a new frontier-based search-type procedure. The constructed BDDs can also be used to solve other influence-spread related problems, such as random sampling without rejection, conditional influence spread evaluation, dynamic probability update, and gradient computation for probability optimization problems. We conducted computational experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The algorithm successfully computed influence spread on real-world networks with a hundred edges in a reasonable time, which is quite impossible by the naive algorithm. We also conducted an experiment to evaluate the accuracy of the Monte-Carlo simulation-based approximation by comparing exact influence spread obtained by the proposed algorithm.Comment: WWW'1

Algorithms for Constructing Overlay Networks For Live Streaming

We present a polynomial time approximation algorithm for constructing an overlay multicast network for streaming live media events over the Internet. The class of overlay networks constructed by our algorithm include networks used by Akamai Technologies to deliver live media events to a global audience with high fidelity. We construct networks consisting of three stages of nodes. The nodes in the first stage are the entry points that act as sources for the live streams. Each source forwards each of its streams to one or more nodes in the second stage that are called reflectors. A reflector can split an incoming stream into multiple identical outgoing streams, which are then sent on to nodes in the third and final stage that act as sinks and are located in edge networks near end-users. As the packets in a stream travel from one stage to the next, some of them may be lost. A sink combines the packets from multiple instances of the same stream (by reordering packets and discarding duplicates) to form a single instance of the stream with minimal loss. Our primary contribution is an algorithm that constructs an overlay network that provably satisfies capacity and reliability constraints to within a constant factor of optimal, and minimizes cost to within a logarithmic factor of optimal. Further in the common case where only the transmission costs are minimized, we show that our algorithm produces a solution that has cost within a factor of 2 of optimal. We also implement our algorithm and evaluate it on realistic traces derived from Akamai's live streaming network. Our empirical results show that our algorithm can be used to efficiently construct large-scale overlay networks in practice with near-optimal cost

Sequential Importance Sampling Algorithms for Estimating the All-Terminal Reliability Polynomial of Sparse Graphs

The all-terminal reliability polynomial of a graph counts its connected subgraphs of various sizes. Algorithms based on sequential importance sampling (SIS) have been proposed to estimate a graph\u27s reliability polynomial. We show upper bounds on the relative error of three sequential importance sampling algorithms. We use these to create a hybrid algorithm, which selects the best SIS algorithm for a particular graph G and particular coefficient of the polynomial. This hybrid algorithm is particularly effective when G has low degree. For graphs of average degree < 11, it is the fastest known algorithm; for graphs of average degree <= 45 it is the fastest known polynomial-space algorithm. For example, when a graph has average degree 3, this algorithm estimates to error epsilon in time O(1.26^n * epsilon^{-2}). Although the algorithm may take exponential time, in practice it can have good performance even on medium-scale graphs. We provide experimental results that show quite practical performance on graphs with hundreds of vertices and thousands of edges. By contrast, alternative algorithms are either not rigorous or are completely impractical for such large graphs