A High Order Stochastic Asymptotic Preserving Scheme for Chemotaxis Kinetic Models with Random Inputs

In this paper, we develop a stochastic Asymptotic-Preserving (sAP) scheme for the kinetic chemotaxis system with random inputs, which will converge to the modified Keller-Segel model with random inputs in the diffusive regime. Based on the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) approach, we design a high order stochastic Galerkin method using implicit-explicit (IMEX) Runge-Kutta (RK) time discretization with a macroscopic penalty term. The new schemes improve the parabolic CFL condition to a hyperbolic type when the mean free path is small, which shows significant efficiency especially in uncertainty quantification (UQ) with multi-scale problems. The stochastic Asymptotic-Preserving property will be shown asymptotically and verified numerically in several tests. Many other numerical tests are conducted to explore the effect of the randomness in the kinetic system, in the aim of providing more intuitions for the theoretic study of the chemotaxis models

On quantifying uncertainties for the linearized BGK kinetic equation

We consider the linearized BGK equation and want to quantify uncertainties in the case of modelling errors. More specifically, we want to quantify the error produced if the pre-determined equilibrium function is chosen inaccurately. In this paper we consider perturbations in the velocity and in the temperature of the equilibrium function and consider how much the error is amplified in the solution

Uncertainty quantification for random parabolic equations with non-homogeneous boundary conditions on a bounded domain via the approximation of the probability density function

[EN] This paper deals with the randomized heat equation defined on a general bounded interval [L-1, L-2] and with nonhomogeneous boundary conditions. The solution is a stochastic process that can be related, via changes of variable, with the solution stochastic process of the random heat equation defined on [0,1] with homogeneous boundary conditions. Results in the extant literature establish conditions under which the probability density function of the solution process to the random heat equation on [0,1] with homogeneous boundary conditions can be approximated. Via the changes of variable and the Random Variable Transformation technique, we set mild conditions under which the probability density function of the solution process to the random heat equation on a general bounded interval [L-1, L-2] and with nonhomogeneous boundary conditions can be approximated uniformly or pointwise. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions in order that the expectation and the variance of the solution stochastic process can be computed from the proposed approximations of the probability density function. Numerical examples are performed in the case that the initial condition process has a certain Karhunen-Loeve expansion, being Gaussian and non-Gaussian.This work has been supported by Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad grant MTM2017 89664 P. The author Marc Jornet acknowledges the doctorate scholarship granted by Programa de Ayudas de Investigación y Desarrollo (PAID), Universitat Politècnica de València.Calatayud-Gregori, J.; Cortés, J.; Jornet-Sanz, M. (2019). Uncertainty quantification for random parabolic equations with non-homogeneous boundary conditions on a bounded domain via the approximation of the probability density function. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences. 42(17):5649-5667. https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.5333S564956674217Holden, H., Øksendal, B., Ubøe, J., & Zhang, T. (2010). Stochastic Partial Differential Equations. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-89488-1Casabán, M.-C., Company, R., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2014). Solving the random diffusion model in an infinite medium: A mean square approach. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 38(24), 5922-5933. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2014.04.063Xu, Z., Tipireddy, R., & Lin, G. (2016). Analytical approximation and numerical studies of one-dimensional elliptic equation with random coefficients. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 40(9-10), 5542-5559. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2015.12.041CalatayudJ CortésJC JornetM.On the approximation of the probability density function of the randomized heat equation.https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.04190.pdfStrand, J. . (1970). Random ordinary differential equations. Journal of Differential Equations, 7(3), 538-553. doi:10.1016/0022-0396(70)90100-2Vaart, A. W. van der. (1998). Asymptotic Statistics. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511802256Villafuerte, L., Braumann, C. A., Cortés, J.-C., & Jódar, L. (2010). Random differential operational calculus: Theory and applications. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 59(1), 115-125. doi:10.1016/j.camwa.2009.08.061Pitman, J. (1993). Probability. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4374-8Williams, D. (1991). Probability with Martingales. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511813658LawlessJF.Truncated Distributions: Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online;2014

Stochastic methods for uncertainty quantification in radiation transport

The use of stochastic spectral expansions, specifically generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) and Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansions, is investigated for uncertainty quantification in radiation transport. The gPC represents second-order random processes in terms of an expansion of orthogonal polynomials of random variables. The KL expansion is a Fourier-type expansion that represents a second-order random process with known covariance function in terms of a set of uncorrelated random variables and the eigenmodes of the covariance function. The flux and, in multiplying materials, the k-eigenvalue, which are the problem unknowns, are always expanded in a gPC expansion since their covariance functions are also unknown. This work assumes a single uncertain input—the total macroscopic cross section—although this does not represent a limitation of the approaches considered here. Two particular types of input parameter uncertainty are investigated: The cross section as a univariate Gaussian, log-normal, gamma or beta random variable, and the cross section as a spatially varying Gaussian or log-normal random process. In the first case, a gPC expansion in terms of a univariate random variable suffices, while in the second, a truncated KL expansion is first necessary followed by a gPC expansion in terms of multivariate random variables. Two solution methods are examined: The Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and the Stochastic Collocation Method (SCM). The SFEM entails taking Galerkin projections onto the orthogonal basis, which yields a system of fully-coupled equations for the PC coefficients of the flux and the k-eigenvalue. This system is linear when there is no multiplication and can be solved using Richardson iteration, employing a standard operator splitting such as block Gauss-Seidel or block Jacobi, or a Krylov iterative method, which can be preconditioned using these splittings. When multiplication is present, the SFEM system is non-linear and a Newton-Krylov method is employed to solve it. The SCM utilizes a suitable quadrature rule to compute the moments or PC coefficients of the flux and k-eigenvalue, and thus involves the solution of a system of independent deterministic transport equations. The accuracy and efficiency of the two methods are compared and contrasted. Both are shown to accurately compute the PC coefficients of the unknown, and numerical proof is provided that the two methods are in fact equivalent in certain cases. The PC coefficients are used to compute the moments and probability density functions of the unknowns, which are shown to be accurate by comparing with Monte Carlo results. An analytic diffusion analysis, corroborated by numerical results, reveals that the random transport equation is well approximated by a deterministic diffusion equation when the medium is diffusive with respect to the average cross section but without constraint on the amplitude of the random fluctuations. Our work shows that stochastic spectral expansions are a viable alternative to random sampling-based uncertainty quantification techniques since both provide a complete characterization of the distribution of the flux and the k-eigenvalue. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that, unlike perturbation methods, SFEM and SCM can handle large parameter uncertainty

Computational methods for random differential equations: probability density function and estimation of the parameters

[EN] Mathematical models based on deterministic differential equations do not take into account the inherent uncertainty of the physical phenomenon (in a wide sense) under study. In addition, inaccuracies in the collected data often arise due to errors in the measurements. It thus becomes necessary to treat the input parameters of the model as random quantities, in the form of random variables or stochastic processes. This gives rise to the study of random ordinary and partial differential equations. The computation of the probability density function of the stochastic solution is important for uncertainty quantification of the model output. Although such computation is a difficult objective in general, certain stochastic expansions for the model coefficients allow faithful representations for the stochastic solution, which permits approximating its density function. In this regard, Karhunen-Loève and generalized polynomial chaos expansions become powerful tools for the density approximation. Also, methods based on discretizations from finite difference numerical schemes permit approximating the stochastic solution, therefore its probability density function. The main part of this dissertation aims at approximating the probability density function of important mathematical models with uncertainties in their formulation. Specifically, in this thesis we study, in the stochastic sense, the following models that arise in different scientific areas: in Physics, the model for the damped pendulum; in Biology and Epidemiology, the models for logistic growth and Bertalanffy, as well as epidemiological models; and in Thermodynamics, the heat partial differential equation. We rely on Karhunen-Loève and generalized polynomial chaos expansions and on finite difference schemes for the density approximation of the solution. These techniques are only applicable when we have a forward model in which the input parameters have certain probability distributions already set. When the model coefficients are estimated from collected data, we have an inverse problem. The Bayesian inference approach allows estimating the probability distribution of the model parameters from their prior probability distribution and the likelihood of the data. Uncertainty quantification for the model output is then carried out using the posterior predictive distribution. In this regard, the last part of the thesis shows the estimation of the distributions of the model parameters from experimental data on bacteria growth. To do so, a hybrid method that combines Bayesian parameter estimation and generalized polynomial chaos expansions is used.[ES] Los modelos matemáticos basados en ecuaciones diferenciales deterministas no tienen en cuenta la incertidumbre inherente del fenómeno físico (en un sentido amplio) bajo estudio. Además, a menudo se producen inexactitudes en los datos recopilados debido a errores en las mediciones. Por lo tanto, es necesario tratar los parámetros de entrada del modelo como cantidades aleatorias, en forma de variables aleatorias o procesos estocásticos. Esto da lugar al estudio de las ecuaciones diferenciales aleatorias. El cálculo de la función de densidad de probabilidad de la solución estocástica es importante en la cuantificación de la incertidumbre de la respuesta del modelo. Aunque dicho cálculo es un objetivo difícil en general, ciertas expansiones estocásticas para los coeficientes del modelo dan lugar a representaciones fieles de la solución estocástica, lo que permite aproximar su función de densidad. En este sentido, las expansiones de Karhunen-Loève y de caos polinomial generalizado constituyen herramientas para dicha aproximación de la densidad. Además, los métodos basados en discretizaciones de esquemas numéricos de diferencias finitas permiten aproximar la solución estocástica, por lo tanto, su función de densidad de probabilidad. La parte principal de esta disertación tiene como objetivo aproximar la función de densidad de probabilidad de modelos matemáticos importantes con incertidumbre en su formulación. Concretamente, en esta memoria se estudian, en un sentido estocástico, los siguientes modelos que aparecen en diferentes áreas científicas: en Física, el modelo del péndulo amortiguado; en Biología y Epidemiología, los modelos de crecimiento logístico y de Bertalanffy, así como modelos de tipo epidemiológico; y en Termodinámica, la ecuación en derivadas parciales del calor. Utilizamos expansiones de Karhunen-Loève y de caos polinomial generalizado y esquemas de diferencias finitas para la aproximación de la densidad de la solución. Estas técnicas solo son aplicables cuando tenemos un modelo directo en el que los parámetros de entrada ya tienen determinadas distribuciones de probabilidad establecidas. Cuando los coeficientes del modelo se estiman a partir de los datos recopilados, tenemos un problema inverso. El enfoque de inferencia Bayesiana permite estimar la distribución de probabilidad de los parámetros del modelo a partir de su distribución de probabilidad previa y la verosimilitud de los datos. La cuantificación de la incertidumbre para la respuesta del modelo se lleva a cabo utilizando la distribución predictiva a posteriori. En este sentido, la última parte de la tesis muestra la estimación de las distribuciones de los parámetros del modelo a partir de datos experimentales sobre el crecimiento de bacterias. Para hacerlo, se utiliza un método híbrido que combina la estimación de parámetros Bayesianos y los desarrollos de caos polinomial generalizado.[CA] Els models matemàtics basats en equacions diferencials deterministes no tenen en compte la incertesa inherent al fenomen físic (en un sentit ampli) sota estudi. A més a més, sovint es produeixen inexactituds en les dades recollides a causa d'errors de mesurament. Es fa així necessari tractar els paràmetres d'entrada del model com a quantitats aleatòries, en forma de variables aleatòries o processos estocàstics. Açò dóna lloc a l'estudi de les equacions diferencials aleatòries. El càlcul de la funció de densitat de probabilitat de la solució estocàstica és important per a quantificar la incertesa de la sortida del model. Tot i que, en general, aquest càlcul és un objectiu difícil d'assolir, certes expansions estocàstiques dels coeficients del model donen lloc a representacions fidels de la solució estocàstica, el que permet aproximar la seua funció de densitat. En aquest sentit, les expansions de Karhunen-Loève i de caos polinomial generalitzat esdevenen eines per a l'esmentada aproximació de la densitat. A més a més, els mètodes basats en discretitzacions mitjançant esquemes numèrics de diferències finites permeten aproximar la solució estocàstica, per tant la seua funció de densitat de probabilitat. La part principal d'aquesta dissertació té com a objectiu aproximar la funció de densitat de probabilitat d'importants models matemàtics amb incerteses en la seua formulació. Concretament, en aquesta memòria s'estudien, en un sentit estocàstic, els següents models que apareixen en diferents àrees científiques: en Física, el model del pèndol amortit; en Biologia i Epidemiologia, els models de creixement logístic i de Bertalanffy, així com models de tipus epidemiològic; i en Termodinàmica, l'equació en derivades parcials de la calor. Per a l'aproximació de la densitat de la solució, ens basem en expansions de Karhunen-Loève i de caos polinomial generalitzat i en esquemes de diferències finites. Aquestes tècniques només són aplicables quan tenim un model cap avant en què els paràmetres d'entrada tenen ja determinades distribucions de probabilitat. Quan els coeficients del model s'estimen a partir de les dades recollides, tenim un problema invers. L'enfocament de la inferència Bayesiana permet estimar la distribució de probabilitat dels paràmetres del model a partir de la seua distribució de probabilitat prèvia i la versemblança de les dades. La quantificació de la incertesa per a la resposta del model es fa mitjançant la distribució predictiva a posteriori. En aquest sentit, l'última part de la tesi mostra l'estimació de les distribucions dels paràmetres del model a partir de dades experimentals sobre el creixement de bacteris. Per a fer-ho, s'utilitza un mètode híbrid que combina l'estimació de paràmetres Bayesiana i els desenvolupaments de caos polinomial generalitzat.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad grant MTM2017–89664–P.Calatayud Gregori, J. (2020). Computational methods for random differential equations: probability density function and estimation of the parameters [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/138396TESISPremios Extraordinarios de tesis doctorale