Is operationalising natural capital risk assessment practicable?

Financial institutions are indirectly exposed to risks associated with the impacts and dependencies on natural capital and ecosystem services of the companies that they invest in, lend to, and insure. This is particularly true for banks lending to agriculture: a sector with both significant impacts and critical dependencies on natural capital. Bank lending is a vital source of new finance for the sector, which is essential to achieve sustainable intensification targets. Yet current credit decision-making practice is still based on conventional financial and management indicators, lacking any systematic assessment of natural capital risks, especially those associated with dependencies. Operationalising natural capital risk assessment requires practicable indicators and data to evaluate the most material natural capital risks for a given sub-sector and geography, but it is unclear to what extent these are available. We assess the practicability of natural capital dependency risk indicators and data sources for a critical case study of Australian sheep production. We find that at least moderately practicable indicators and data sources are available to assess the 11 major dependency risks that are material for this industry. Challenges remain in determining risk thresholds for most indicators, and quantifying risk impacts on profitability. © 2021 Elsevier B.V

Multi‑week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

The compound extreme weather event that impacted northern Queensland in February 2019 featured record-breaking rainfall, persistent high wind gusts and relatively cold day-time temperatures. This caused livestock losses numbering around 500,000 in the northwest Queensland Gulf region. In this study, we examine the livestock chill conditions associated with this week-long compound weather event and its potential for prediction from eleven world-leading sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast systems. The livestock chill index combines daily rainfall, wind and surface temperature data. Averaged over the event week, the potential heat loss of livestock was in the moderate to high category, with severe conditions on the day of peak rainfall (5 February). Using calibrated forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's S2S forecast system, ACCESS-S1, a 1-week lead prediction showed a 20–30% probability of extreme livestock chill conditions over the northwest Queensland Gulf region, however the highest probabilities were located to the west of where the greatest livestock impacts were observed. Of the remaining ten S2S systems, around half predicted a more than 20% chance of extreme conditions, more than twice the climatological probability. It appears that the prediction accuracy arose from the skilful forecasts of extreme rainfall, as opposed to cold day-time temperature and strong wind forecasts. Despite a clear association between the observed extreme weather conditions and an active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event stalling in the western Pacific, the majority of 1-week lead S2S forecasts showed little indication of a slow-down in the MJO. As the livestock chill index was developed for southern Australian sheep, it may not be the best metric to represent the effects of exposure on tropical cattle breeds. Hence, this study draws attention to the need for tailored diagnostics that better represent the cold effects of summer tropical cyclones and tropical depressions on northern Australian livestock

An SMS and Email Weather Warning System for Sheep Producers

Part 2: Information Systems, Information Modelling and SemanticsInternational audienceSheep are vulnerable to hypothermia shortly after birth and shearing. Since the 1970’s sheep weather alerts have been reported at a regional scale by the media up to 24 hours prior to a chill event. The SMS and email weather warning system was designed as an enhanced service to provide sheep producers with advanced warnings of forth-coming chill events, based on local weather forecasts, with personalized chill warnings delivered by SMS and email. A trial was conducted with 30 sheep producers who selected one or more local weather stations and a low, medium or high sensitivity threshold to control the frequency at which messages were sent. Sensitivity thresholds were calculated for each weather station from historical data. Numerical forecast data were sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology, and an email and SMS sent each morning whenever forecast chill exceeded the warning threshold within the 7-day forecast period. Participants were interviewed by telephone after a 2-month trial. The alerts were found to be clear and reasonably accurate, but produced an unexpected high number of false warnings at some sites. The SMS format was well received, and farmers were generally happy to continue the trial. False warnings were attributed to over-prediction of wind speeds at some sites relative to on-ground weather stations, most of which were in northern Victoria

Unveiling the dynamics of livestock behaviour, pasture growth, and livestock saliva

Grazing practices must consider a range of variables to enable efficient and sustainable management of animals, plants, soils, water, and nutrients. Extensive research has detailed changes in these variables, but a multidisciplinary agroecological approach is critical to understand how they interact to ensure best management practices. This thesis investigated three areas within agroecological sphere: the role of grazing on plant growth (Chapters 2 and 3), constituents in livestock saliva that may affect plant growth (Chapter 4), and grazing decisions of livestock on pasture using predictive modelling (Chapters 5 and 6). The aim of my thesis is to weave a narrative that explores the complex dynamics of these variables in an agricultural ecosystem and provide a pathway for how they can be analysed. Grazing management is the relationship between animals and plants, and as such, the ability to qualify and quantify the intricacies of the art and science will benefit researchers in their studies, and pastoralists in making management decisions on farm