Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency

In this paper we suggest a set of indicators about the future performance of the Spanish public pension system and a suitable method of representing their uncertainty, in order to improve the communication to the public opinion about its main future challenges. Spain seems a particularly interesting case in Europe to illustrate our proposals, since the social security system has been in surplus for nine consecutive years, in sharp contrast to the projections made just a decade ago, but, at the same time, most projections foresee for Spain one of the highest increases in public expenditure among EU countries due to ageing. We argue that simple, transparent, credible, public and periodic indicators, which take explicitly into account the uncertainty about future demographic, economic and institutional developments, may contribute to improve the debate on the policies needed to strengthen the pension system.pensions, projections, communication, uncertainty

Stroke treatment academic industry roundtable recommendations for individual data pooling analyses in stroke

Pooled analysis of individual patient data from stroke trials can deliver more precise estimates of treatment effect, enhance power to examine prespecified subgroups, and facilitate exploration of treatment-modifying influences. Analysis plans should be declared, and preferably published, before trial results are known. For pooling trials that used diverse analytic approaches, an ordinal analysis is favored, with justification for considering deaths and severe disability jointly. Because trial pooling is an incremental process, analyses should follow a sequential approach, with statistical adjustment for iterations. Updated analyses should be published when revised conclusions have a clinical implication. However, caution is recommended in declaring pooled findings that may prejudice ongoing trials, unless clinical implications are compelling. All contributing trial teams should contribute to leadership, data verification, and authorship of pooled analyses. Development work is needed to enable reliable inferences to be drawn about individual drug or device effects that contribute to a pooled analysis, versus a class effect, if the treatment strategy combines ≥2 such drugs or devices. Despite the practical challenges, pooled analyses are powerful and essential tools in interpreting clinical trial findings and advancing clinical care

A lightweight group-key management protocol for secure ad-hoc-network routing

AbstractSecure routing protocols for ad hoc networks use group keys for authenticating control messages without high energy consumption. A distributed and robust group-key management is, thus, essential. This paper proposes and specifies a protocol for distributing and managing group keys in ad hoc environments based on the Secure Optimized Link State Routing protocol (SOLSR). The proposed protocol manages group keys taking into consideration frequent network partitions/mergers and also reduces the impact of non-authorized users that try to illegitimately obtain the group key to use network resources. The analysis shows that our proposal provides high availability and presents low energy consumption for the two most important group events in ad hoc network: joining-node events and network-partition-merging events. Our protocol reduces both the number of control messages and the energy spent with cryptographic operations by up to three orders of magnitude when compared to contributory group-key agreement algorithms. The proposed protocol provides an efficient key management in a timely manner

From SHIW to IT-SILC: construction and representativeness of the new CAPP_DYN first-year population

This paper describes the construction of the initial population in CAPP_DYN and illustrates the degree of representativeness of the Italian population in 2006. While the previous version of the model was constructed using the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth, the current version is based on the new ISTAT Survey on Income and Living Conditions. The first part of the paper discusses the reasons that led us to this switch. It also provides full details on the operations carried out on the original dataset in order to obtain a sample that can be used as the first year population of the Dynamic Simulation Model. In the second part of the paper, the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the initial population sample are compared with information coming from other sources, such as administrative archives, national accounts and Labour Force Surveys. This exercise is crucial in assessing the capability of CAPP_DYN to represent the population's characteristics at the starting point.Dynamic micro-simulation, model validation, income distribution, pensions and social security

Nature of Blame in Patient Safety Incident Reports: Mixed Methods Analysis of a National Database.

PURPOSE: A culture of blame and fear of retribution are recognized barriers to reporting patient safety incidents. The extent of blame attribution in safety incident reports, which may reflect the underlying safety culture of health care systems, is unknown. This study set out to explore the nature of blame in family practice safety incident reports. METHODS: We characterized a random sample of family practice patient safety incident reports from the England and Wales National Reporting and Learning System. Reports were analyzed according to prespecified classification systems to describe the incident type, contributory factors, outcomes, and severity of harm. We developed a taxonomy of blame attribution, and we then used descriptive statistical analyses to identify the proportions of blame types and to explore associations between incident characteristics and one type of blame. RESULTS: Health care professionals making family practice incident reports attributed blame to a person in 45% of cases (n = 975 of 2,148; 95% CI, 43%-47%). In 36% of cases, those who reported the incidents attributed fault to another person, whereas 2% of those reporting acknowledged personal responsibility. Blame was commonly associated with incidents where a complaint was anticipated. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of blame in these safety, incident reports may reflect a health care culture that leads to blame and retribution, rather than to identifying areas for learning and improvement, and a failure to appreciate the contribution of system factors in others' behavior. Successful improvement in patient safety through the analysis of incident reports is unlikely without achieving a blame-free culture

From SHIW to IT-SILC: Construction and Representativeness of the New CAPP_DYN First-Year Population

This paper describes the construction of the initial population in CAPP_DYN and illustrates the degree of representativeness of the Italian population in 2006. While the previous version of the model was constructed using the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth, the current version is based on the new ISTAT Survey on Income and Living Conditions. The first part of the paper discusses the reasons that led us to this switch. It also provides full details on the operations carried out on the original dataset in order to obtain a sample that can be used as the first year population of the Dynamic Simulation Model. In the second part of the paper, the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the initial population sample are compared with information coming from other sources, such as administrative archives, national accounts and Labour Force Surveys. This exercise is crucial in assessing the capability of CAPP_DYN to represent the population's characteristics at the starting pointDynamic micro-simulation; model validation; income distribution; pensions and social security

Does Participating in a Collective Decision Affect the Levels of Contributions Provided? An Experimental Investigation

From a purely theoretical perspective, there is no reason to expect that different levels of contributions in public goods games are associated with the same sanctioning/rewarding rule. The efficiency of a norm should be independent of its enactment procedure. On the contrary, multidisciplinary and empirical considerations suggest that individuals may behave differently, according to the level of their direct involvement. The question whether participation in norm enactment results in more contributory gap than when the same norm is received, has not been addressed in public good literature so far. Our three experiments show a behavioural regularity: participating in a normative enactment generates different contributory effects, with respect to the case when the sanctioning norm is merely received.participation, public good games, free riding

The Decline in Inequality in Latin America: How Much, Since When and Why

Between 2000 and 2009, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries for which comparable data exist. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures and data sources. In depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru suggest that there are two phenomena which underlie this trend: (i) a fall in the premium to skilled labor (as measured by returns to education); and (ii) higher and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills results from a combination of supply and demand factors and, in Argentina and, to a lesser extent, in Brazil, from more active labor market policies as well.Income inequality, wage gap, government transfers, Latin America

The decline in inequality in Latin America: How much, since when and why

Between 2000 and 2009, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries for which comparable data exist. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures and data sources. In depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru suggest that there are two phenomena which underlie this trend: (i) a fall in the premium to skilled labor (as measured by returns to education); and (ii) higher and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills results from a combination of supply and demand factors and, in Argentina—and to a lesser extent in Brazil--, from more active labor market policies as well.Income inequality, wage gap, government transfers, Latin America.