Decision-Making Amplification Under Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study of Behavioral Similarity and Intelligent Decision Support Systems

Intelligent decision systems have the potential to support and greatly amplify human decision-making across a number of industries and domains. However, despite the rapid improvement in the underlying capabilities of these “intelligent” systems, increasing their acceptance as decision aids in industry has remained a formidable challenge. If intelligent systems are to be successful, and their full impact on decision-making performance realized, a greater understanding of the factors that influence recommendation acceptance from intelligent machines is needed. Through an empirical experiment in the financial services industry, this study investigated the effects of perceived behavioral similarity (similarity state) on the dependent variables of recommendation acceptance, decision performance and decision efficiency under varying conditions of uncertainty (volatility state). It is hypothesized in this study that behavioral similarity as a design element will positively influence the acceptance rate of machine recommendations by human users. The level of uncertainty in the decision context is expected to moderate this relationship. In addition, an increase in recommendation acceptance should positively influence both decision performance and decision efficiency. The quantitative exploration of behavioral similarity as a design element revealed a number of key findings. Most importantly, behavioral similarity was found to positively influence the acceptance rate of machine recommendations. However, uncertainty did not moderate the level of recommendation acceptance as expected. The experiment also revealed that behavioral similarity positively influenced decision performance during periods of elevated uncertainty. This relationship was moderated based on the level of uncertainty in the decision context. The investigation of decision efficiency also revealed a statistically significant result. However, the results for decision efficiency were in the opposite direction of the hypothesized relationship. Interestingly, decisions made with the behaviorally similar decision aid were less efficient, based on length of time to make a decision, compared to decisions made with the low-similarity decision aid. The results of decision efficiency were stable across both levels of uncertainty in the decision context

Rough sets for predicting the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index returns

This study aims to prove the usability of Rough Set approach in capturing the relationship between the technical indicators and the level of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLCI) over time.Stock markets are affected by many interrelated economic, political, and even psychological factors.Therefore, it is generally very difficult to predict its movements. There are extensive literatures available describing attempts to use artificial intelligence techniques; in particular neural networks and genetic algorithm for analyzing stock market variations.However, drawbacks are found where neural networks have great complexity in interpreting the results; genetic algorithms create large data redundancies.A relatively new approach, the rough sets are suggested for its simple knowledge representation, ability to deal with uncertainties and lowering data redundancies.In this study, a few different discretization algorithms were used at data preprocessing. From the simulations and result produced, the rough sets approach can be a promising alternative to the existing methods for stock market prediction

Data and knowledge-driven intelligent investment cognitive reasoning model

The modeling and analysis of information flow from various sources (e.g., analyst reports, news, and social media), and their impact on assets and investment decision- making, have drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we propose a new knowledge inference design framework that provides concrete prescriptions for developing systems capable of supporting knowledge-based investment decision-making. Our framework design incorporates the advantages of both knowledge graphs and symbolic reasoning engines through the concept of a dual system. On the other hand, it overcomes the weaknesses of traditional expert systems, saving time in the knowledge input process, reducing the introduction of errors, and achieving more comprehensive knowledge coverage to obtain better predictive performance. Moreover, our proposed design artifacts are of significant importance in addressing the issues of causality and interpretability in the literature

Application of deep reinforcement learning in stock trading strategies and stock forecasting

The role of the stock market across the overall financial market is indispensable. The way to acquire practical trading signals in the transaction process to maximize the benefits is a problem that has been studied for a long time. This paper put forward a theory of deep reinforcement learning in the stock trading decisions and stock price prediction, the reliability and availability of the model are proved by experimental data, and the model is compared with the traditional model to prove its advantages. From the point of view of stock market forecasting and intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper proves the feasibility of deep reinforcement learning in financial markets and the credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making

Machine Learning and Finance: A Review using Latent Dirichlet Allocation Technique (LDA)

The aim of this paper is provide a first comprehensive structuring of the literature applying machine learning to finance. We use a probabilistic topic modelling approach to make sense of this diverse body of research spanning across the disciplines of finance, economics, computer sciences, and decision sciences. Through the topic modelling approach, a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Technique (LDA), we can extract the 14 coherent research topics that are the focus of the 6,148 academic articles during the years 1990-2019 analysed. We first describe and structure these topics, and then further show how the topic focus has evolved over the last two decades. Our study thus provides a structured topography for finance researchers seeking to integrate machine learning research approaches in their exploration of finance phenomena. We also showcase the benefits to finance researchers of the method of probabilistic modelling of topics for deep comprehension of a body of literature, especially when that literature has diverse multi-disciplinary actors

An academic review: applications of data mining techniques in finance industry

With the development of Internet techniques, data volumes are doubling every two years, faster than predicted by Moore’s Law. Big Data Analytics becomes particularly important for enterprise business. Modern computational technologies will provide effective tools to help understand hugely accumulated data and leverage this information to get insights into the finance industry. In order to get actionable insights into the business, data has become most valuable asset of financial organisations, as there are no physical products in finance industry to manufacture. This is where data mining techniques come to their rescue by allowing access to the right information at the right time. These techniques are used by the finance industry in various areas such as fraud detection, intelligent forecasting, credit rating, loan management, customer profiling, money laundering, marketing and prediction of price movements to name a few. This work aims to survey the research on data mining techniques applied to the finance industry from 2010 to 2015.The review finds that Stock prediction and Credit rating have received most attention of researchers, compared to Loan prediction, Money Laundering and Time Series prediction. Due to the dynamics, uncertainty and variety of data, nonlinear mapping techniques have been deeply studied than linear techniques. Also it has been proved that hybrid methods are more accurate in prediction, closely followed by Neural Network technique. This survey could provide a clue of applications of data mining techniques for finance industry, and a summary of methodologies for researchers in this area. Especially, it could provide a good vision of Data Mining Techniques in computational finance for beginners who want to work in the field of computational finance