From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Exploring synergies between farmers' livelihoods, forest conservation and social equity participatory simulations for creative negotiation in Thailand highlands

En dépit de l'usage croissant du concept de développement durable, les interactions entre ses trois piliers (environnementaux, économiques et sociaux) sont plus souvent pensées en termes de compromis qu'en termes de synergies. À partir d'une étude de cas sur un conflit autour de l'accès aux ressources foncières et forestières entre un parc national en cours d'établissement et deux villages dans les hautes terres du Nord de la Thaïlande, cet article montre que le concept de négociation intégrative peut être intéressant pour révéler des synergies potentielles entre la préservation de l'environnement, la subsistance des agriculteurs, et l'équité sociale. Dans cette étude de cas, des sessions participatives de simulations multi-agents ont favorisé l'émergence d'un mode de négociation créatif et intégratif entre différents types d'agriculteurs, des forestiers et des agents du parc national. Ces simulations ont permis aux différents protagonistes de reformuler le problème en jeu et de réaliser qu'ils avaient des intérêts en commun, notamment dans la limitation de la déforestation et la gestion des produits forestiers de collecte. (Résumé d'auteur

Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Quantitative modelling of the human–Earth System a new kind of science?

The five grand challenges set out for Earth System Science by the International Council for Science in 2010 require a true fusion of social science, economics and natural science—a fusion that has not yet been achieved. In this paper we propose that constructing quantitative models of the dynamics of the human–Earth system can serve as a catalyst for this fusion. We confront well-known objections to modelling societal dynamics by drawing lessons from the development of natural science over the last four centuries and applying them to social and economic science. First, we pose three questions that require real integration of the three fields of science. They concern the coupling of physical planetary boundaries via social processes; the extension of the concept of planetary boundaries to the human–Earth System; and the possibly self-defeating nature of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals. Second, we ask whether there are regularities or ‘attractors’ in the human–Earth System analogous to those that prompted the search for laws of nature. We nominate some candidates and discuss why we should observe them given that human actors with foresight and intentionality play a fundamental role in the human–Earth System. We conclude that, at sufficiently large time and space scales, social processes are predictable in some sense. Third, we canvass some essential mathematical techniques that this research fusion must incorporate, and we ask what kind of data would be needed to validate or falsify our models. Finally, we briefly review the state of the art in quantitative modelling of the human–Earth System today and highlight a gap between so-called integrated assessment models applied at regional and global scale, which could be filled by a new scale of model