A Multi-objective Exploratory Procedure for Regression Model Selection

Variable selection is recognized as one of the most critical steps in statistical modeling. The problems encountered in engineering and social sciences are commonly characterized by over-abundance of explanatory variables, non-linearities and unknown interdependencies between the regressors. An added difficulty is that the analysts may have little or no prior knowledge on the relative importance of the variables. To provide a robust method for model selection, this paper introduces the Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm for Variable Selection (MOGA-VS) that provides the user with an optimal set of regression models for a given data-set. The algorithm considers the regression problem as a two objective task, and explores the Pareto-optimal (best subset) models by preferring those models over the other which have less number of regression coefficients and better goodness of fit. The model exploration can be performed based on in-sample or generalization error minimization. The model selection is proposed to be performed in two steps. First, we generate the frontier of Pareto-optimal regression models by eliminating the dominated models without any user intervention. Second, a decision making process is executed which allows the user to choose the most preferred model using visualisations and simple metrics. The method has been evaluated on a recently published real dataset on Communities and Crime within United States.Comment: in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 24, Iss. 1, 201

Finding Optimal Strategies in a Multi-Period Multi-Leader-Follower Stackelberg Game Using an Evolutionary Algorithm

Stackelberg games are a classic example of bilevel optimization problems, which are often encountered in game theory and economics. These are complex problems with a hierarchical structure, where one optimization task is nested within the other. Despite a number of studies on handling bilevel optimization problems, these problems still remain a challenging territory, and existing methodologies are able to handle only simple problems with few variables under assumptions of continuity and differentiability. In this paper, we consider a special case of a multi-period multi-leader-follower Stackelberg competition model with non-linear cost and demand functions and discrete production variables. The model has potential applications, for instance in aircraft manufacturing industry, which is an oligopoly where a few giant firms enjoy a tremendous commitment power over the other smaller players. We solve cases with different number of leaders and followers, and show how the entrance or exit of a player affects the profits of the other players. In the presence of various model complexities, we use a computationally intensive nested evolutionary strategy to find an optimal solution for the model. The strategy is evaluated on a test-suite of bilevel problems, and it has been shown that the method is successful in handling difficult bilevel problems.Comment: To be published in Computers and Operations Researc

Meta-heuristic algorithms in car engine design: a literature survey

Meta-heuristic algorithms are often inspired by natural phenomena, including the evolution of species in Darwinian natural selection theory, ant behaviors in biology, flock behaviors of some birds, and annealing in metallurgy. Due to their great potential in solving difficult optimization problems, meta-heuristic algorithms have found their way into automobile engine design. There are different optimization problems arising in different areas of car engine management including calibration, control system, fault diagnosis, and modeling. In this paper we review the state-of-the-art applications of different meta-heuristic algorithms in engine management systems. The review covers a wide range of research, including the application of meta-heuristic algorithms in engine calibration, optimizing engine control systems, engine fault diagnosis, and optimizing different parts of engines and modeling. The meta-heuristic algorithms reviewed in this paper include evolutionary algorithms, evolution strategy, evolutionary programming, genetic programming, differential evolution, estimation of distribution algorithm, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization, memetic algorithms, and artificial immune system