22,363 research outputs found
Credit risk evaluation modeling using evolutionary linear SVM classifiers and sliding window approach
AbstractThis paper presents a study on credit risk evaluation modeling using linear Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifiers, combined with evolutionary parameter selection using Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization, and sliding window approach. Discriminant analysis was applied for evaluation of financial instances and dynamic formation of bankruptcy classes. The possibilities of feature selection application were also researched by applying correlation-based feature subset evaluator. The research demonstrates a possibility to develop and apply an intelligent classifier based on original discriminant analysis method evaluation and shows that it might perform bankruptcy identification better than original model
A Comparison of Decision Tree with Logistic Regression Model for Prediction of Worst Non-Financial Payment Status in Commercial Credit
Credit risk prediction is an important problem in the financial services domain. While machine learning techniques such as Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks have been used for improved predictive modeling, the outcomes of such models are not readily explainable and, therefore, difficult to apply within financial regulations. In contrast, Decision Trees are easy to explain, and provide an easy to interpret visualization of model decisions. The aim of this paper is to predict worst non-financial payment status among businesses, and evaluate decision tree model performance against traditional Logistic Regression model for this task. The dataset for analysis is provided by Equifax and includes over 300 potential predictors from more than 11 million unique businesses. After a data discovery phase, including imputation, cleaning, and transforming potential predictors, Decision Tree and Logistic Regression models were built on the same finalized analysis dataset. Evaluating the models based on ROC index, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, Decision Tree performed as well as the Logistic Regression model
Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks
Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001
Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research
Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ
Consumer finance: challenges for operational research
Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoringāthe way of assessing risk in consumer financeāand what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/
Support Vector Machines for Credit Scoring and discovery of significant features
The assessment of risk of default on credit is important for financial institutions. Logistic regression and discriminant analysis are techniques traditionally used in credit scoring for determining likelihood to default based on consumer application and credit reference agency data. We test support vector machines against these traditional methods on a large credit card database. We find that they are competitive and can be used as the basis of a feature selection method to discover those features that are most significant in determining risk of default. 1
Comparison of Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network in Evaluating the Enterprise Financial Distress
Recently, applying the novel data mining techniques for evaluating enterprise
financial distress has received much research alternation. Support Vector
Machine (SVM) and back propagation neural (BPN) network has been applied
successfully in many areas with excellent generalization results, such as rule
extraction, classification and evaluation. In this paper, a model based on SVM
with Gaussian RBF kernel is proposed here for enterprise financial distress
evaluation. BPN network is considered one of the simplest and are most general
methods used for supervised training of multilayered neural network. The
comparative results show that through the difference between the performance
measures is marginal; SVM gives higher precision and lower error rates.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figur
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