Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure

We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular or unpopular memes.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. Proceedings of 8th AAAI Intl. Conf. on Weblogs and social media (ICWSM 2014

Topicality and Social Impact: Diverse Messages but Focused Messengers

Are users who comment on a variety of matters more likely to achieve high influence than those who delve into one focused field? Do general Twitter hashtags, such as #lol, tend to be more popular than novel ones, such as #instantlyinlove? Questions like these demand a way to detect topics hidden behind messages associated with an individual or a hashtag, and a gauge of similarity among these topics. Here we develop such an approach to identify clusters of similar hashtags by detecting communities in the hashtag co-occurrence network. Then the topical diversity of a user's interests is quantified by the entropy of her hashtags across different topic clusters. A similar measure is applied to hashtags, based on co-occurring tags. We find that high topical diversity of early adopters or co-occurring tags implies high future popularity of hashtags. In contrast, low diversity helps an individual accumulate social influence. In short, diverse messages and focused messengers are more likely to gain impact.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 6 table

Predicting Rising Follower Counts on Twitter Using Profile Information

When evaluating the cause of one's popularity on Twitter, one thing is considered to be the main driver: Many tweets. There is debate about the kind of tweet one should publish, but little beyond tweets. Of particular interest is the information provided by each Twitter user's profile page. One of the features are the given names on those profiles. Studies on psychology and economics identified correlations of the first name to, e.g., one's school marks or chances of getting a job interview in the US. Therefore, we are interested in the influence of those profile information on the follower count. We addressed this question by analyzing the profiles of about 6 Million Twitter users. All profiles are separated into three groups: Users that have a first name, English words, or neither of both in their name field. The assumption is that names and words influence the discoverability of a user and subsequently his/her follower count. We propose a classifier that labels users who will increase their follower count within a month by applying different models based on the user's group. The classifiers are evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve score and achieves a score above 0.800.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, 8 tables, WebSci '17, June 25--28, 2017, Troy, NY, US

Trends in Social Media : Persistence and Decay

Social media generates a prodigious wealth of real-time content at an incessant rate. From all the content that people create and share, only a few topics manage to attract enough attention to rise to the top and become temporal trends which are displayed to users. The question of what factors cause the formation and persistence of trends is an important one that has not been answered yet. In this paper, we conduct an intensive study of trending topics on Twitter and provide a theoretical basis for the formation, persistence and decay of trends. We also demonstrate empirically how factors such as user activity and number of followers do not contribute strongly to trend creation and its propagation. In fact, we find that the resonance of the content with the users of the social network plays a major role in causing trends

Determining citizens’ opinions about stories in the news media: analysing Google, Facebook and Twitter

We describe a method whereby a governmental policy maker can discover citizens’ reaction to news stories. This is particularly relevant in the political world, where governments’ policy statements are reported by the news media and discussed by citizens. The work here addresses two main questions: whereabouts are citizens discussing a news story, and what are they saying? Our strategy to answer the first question is to find news articles pertaining to the policy statements, then perform internet searches for references to the news articles’ headlines and URLs. We have created a software tool that schedules repeating Google searches for the news articles and collects the results in a database, enabling the user to aggregate and analyse them to produce ranked tables of sites that reference the news articles. Using data mining techniques we can analyse data so that resultant ranking reflects an overall aggregate score, taking into account multiple datasets, and this shows the most relevant places on the internet where the story is discussed. To answer the second question, we introduce the WeGov toolbox as a tool for analysing citizens’ comments and behaviour pertaining to news stories. We first use the tool for identifying social network discussions, using different strategies for Facebook and Twitter. We apply different analysis components to analyse the data to distil the essence of the social network users’ comments, to determine influential users and identify important comments

De retibus socialibus et legibus momenti

Online Social Networks (OSNs) are a cutting edge topic. Almost everybody --users, marketers, brands, companies, and researchers-- is approaching OSNs to better understand them and take advantage of their benefits. Maybe one of the key concepts underlying OSNs is that of influence which is highly related, although not entirely identical, to those of popularity and centrality. Influence is, according to Merriam-Webster, "the capacity of causing an effect in indirect or intangible ways". Hence, in the context of OSNs, it has been proposed to analyze the clicks received by promoted URLs in order to check for any positive correlation between the number of visits and different "influence" scores. Such an evaluation methodology is used in this paper to compare a number of those techniques with a new method firstly described here. That new method is a simple and rather elegant solution which tackles with influence in OSNs by applying a physical metaphor.Comment: Changes made for third revision: Brief description of the dataset employed added to Introduction. Minor changes to the description of preparation of the bit.ly datasets. Minor changes to the captions of Tables 1 and 3. Brief addition in the Conclusions section (future line of work added). Added references 16 and 18. Some typos and grammar polishe

Scalable Privacy-Compliant Virality Prediction on Twitter

The digital town hall of Twitter becomes a preferred medium of communication for individuals and organizations across the globe. Some of them reach audiences of millions, while others struggle to get noticed. Given the impact of social media, the question remains more relevant than ever: how to model the dynamics of attention in Twitter. Researchers around the world turn to machine learning to predict the most influential tweets and authors, navigating the volume, velocity, and variety of social big data, with many compromises. In this paper, we revisit content popularity prediction on Twitter. We argue that strict alignment of data acquisition, storage and analysis algorithms is necessary to avoid the common trade-offs between scalability, accuracy and privacy compliance. We propose a new framework for the rapid acquisition of large-scale datasets, high accuracy supervisory signal and multilanguage sentiment prediction while respecting every privacy request applicable. We then apply a novel gradient boosting framework to achieve state-of-the-art results in virality ranking, already before including tweet's visual or propagation features. Our Gradient Boosted Regression Tree is the first to offer explainable, strong ranking performance on benchmark datasets. Since the analysis focused on features available early, the model is immediately applicable to incoming tweets in 18 languages.Comment: AffCon@AAAI-19 Best Paper Award; Presented at AAAI-19 W1: Affective Content Analysi