Econometrics for Learning Agents

The main goal of this paper is to develop a theory of inference of player valuations from observed data in the generalized second price auction without relying on the Nash equilibrium assumption. Existing work in Economics on inferring agent values from data relies on the assumption that all participant strategies are best responses of the observed play of other players, i.e. they constitute a Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show how to perform inference relying on a weaker assumption instead: assuming that players are using some form of no-regret learning. Learning outcomes emerged in recent years as an attractive alternative to Nash equilibrium in analyzing game outcomes, modeling players who haven't reached a stable equilibrium, but rather use algorithmic learning, aiming to learn the best way to play from previous observations. In this paper we show how to infer values of players who use algorithmic learning strategies. Such inference is an important first step before we move to testing any learning theoretic behavioral model on auction data. We apply our techniques to a dataset from Microsoft's sponsored search ad auction system

Simplicity, scientific inference and econometric modelling

Economic Schools;Econometric Models;Economic Methodology

Algorithmic complexity theory and the relative efficiency of financial markets

Financial economists usually assess market efficiency in absolute terms. This is to be viewed as a shortcoming. One way of dealing with the relative efficiency of markets is to resort to the efficiency interpretation provided by algorithmic complexity theory. We employ such an approach in order to rank 36 stock exchanges, 37 individual company stocks, and 19 US dollar exchange rates in terms of their relative efficiency.financial efficiency;algorithmic complexity

Variations on the Theme of Conning in Mathematical Economics

The mathematization of economics is almost exclusively in terms of the mathematics of real analysis which, in turn, is founded on set theory (and the axiom of choice) and orthodox mathematical logic. In this paper I try to point out that this kind of mathematization is replete with economic infelicities. The attempt to extract these infelicities is in terms of three main examples: dynamics, policy and rational expectations and learning. The focus is on the role and reliance on standard xed point theorems in orthodox mathematical economics

The relative efficiency of stockmarkets

Financial economists usually assess market efficiency in absolute terms. This is a shortcoming. One way of dealing with the relative efficiency of markets is to resort to the efficiency interpretation provided by algorithmic complexity theory. This paper employs such an approach in order to rank 36 stock exchanges and 37 individual company stocks in terms of their relative efficiency.

A Primer on the Tools and Concepts of Computable Economics

Computability theory came into being as a result of Hilbert's attempts to meet Brouwer's challenges, from an intuitionistc and constructive standpoint, to formalism as a foundation for mathematical practice. Viewed this way, constructive mathematics should be one vision of computability theory. However, there are fundamental differences between computability theory and constructive mathematics: the Church-Turing thesis is a disciplining criterion in the former and not in the latter; and classical logic - particularly, the law of the excluded middle - is not accepted in the latter but freely invoked in the former, especially in proving universal negative propositions. In Computable Economic an eclectic approach is adopted where the main criterion is numerical content for economic entities. In this sense both the computable and the constructive traditions are freely and indiscriminately invoked and utilised in the formalization of economic entities. Some of the mathematical methods and concepts of computable economics are surveyed in a pedagogical mode. The context is that of a digital economy embedded in an information society