Seamless approach for precipitations within the 0-3 hours forecast-interval

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Leading strategies in competitive on-line prediction

We start from a simple asymptotic result for the problem of on-line regression with the quadratic loss function: the class of continuous limited-memory prediction strategies admits a "leading prediction strategy", which not only asymptotically performs at least as well as any continuous limited-memory strategy but also satisfies the property that the excess loss of any continuous limited-memory strategy is determined by how closely it imitates the leading strategy. More specifically, for any class of prediction strategies constituting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space we construct a leading strategy, in the sense that the loss of any prediction strategy whose norm is not too large is determined by how closely it imitates the leading strategy. This result is extended to the loss functions given by Bregman divergences and by strictly proper scoring rules.Comment: 20 pages; a conference version is to appear in the ALT'2006 proceeding

Let's be Honest: An Optimal No-Regret Framework for Zero-Sum Games

We revisit the problem of solving two-player zero-sum games in the decentralized setting. We propose a simple algorithmic framework that simultaneously achieves the best rates for honest regret as well as adversarial regret, and in addition resolves the open problem of removing the logarithmic terms in convergence to the value of the game. We achieve this goal in three steps. First, we provide a novel analysis of the optimistic mirror descent (OMD), showing that it can be modified to guarantee fast convergence for both honest regret and value of the game, when the players are playing collaboratively. Second, we propose a new algorithm, dubbed as robust optimistic mirror descent (ROMD), which attains optimal adversarial regret without knowing the time horizon beforehand. Finally, we propose a simple signaling scheme, which enables us to bridge OMD and ROMD to achieve the best of both worlds. Numerical examples are presented to support our theoretical claims and show that our non-adaptive ROMD algorithm can be competitive to OMD with adaptive step-size selection.Comment: Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Machine Learnin

First-order regret bounds for combinatorial semi-bandits

We consider the problem of online combinatorial optimization under semi-bandit feedback, where a learner has to repeatedly pick actions from a combinatorial decision set in order to minimize the total losses associated with its decisions. After making each decision, the learner observes the losses associated with its action, but not other losses. For this problem, there are several learning algorithms that guarantee that the learner's expected regret grows as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ with the number of rounds $T$. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that improves this scaling to $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{{L_T^*}})$, where $L_T^*$ is the total loss of the best action. Our algorithm is among the first to achieve such guarantees in a partial-feedback scheme, and the first one to do so in a combinatorial setting.Comment: To appear at COLT 201

Memory-Efficient Adaptive Optimization

Adaptive gradient-based optimizers such as Adagrad and Adam are crucial for achieving state-of-the-art performance in machine translation and language modeling. However, these methods maintain second-order statistics for each parameter, thus introducing significant memory overheads that restrict the size of the model being used as well as the number of examples in a mini-batch. We describe an effective and flexible adaptive optimization method with greatly reduced memory overhead. Our method retains the benefits of per-parameter adaptivity while allowing significantly larger models and batch sizes. We give convergence guarantees for our method, and demonstrate its effectiveness in training very large translation and language models with up to 2-fold speedups compared to the state-of-the-art

A parameter-free hedging algorithm

We study the problem of decision-theoretic online learning (DTOL). Motivated by practical applications, we focus on DTOL when the number of actions is very large. Previous algorithms for learning in this framework have a tunable learning rate parameter, and a barrier to using online-learning in practical applications is that it is not understood how to set this parameter optimally, particularly when the number of actions is large. In this paper, we offer a clean solution by proposing a novel and completely parameter-free algorithm for DTOL. We introduce a new notion of regret, which is more natural for applications with a large number of actions. We show that our algorithm achieves good performance with respect to this new notion of regret; in addition, it also achieves performance close to that of the best bounds achieved by previous algorithms with optimally-tuned parameters, according to previous notions of regret.Comment: Updated Versio

Adaptive Bound Optimization for Online Convex Optimization

We introduce a new online convex optimization algorithm that adaptively chooses its regularization function based on the loss functions observed so far. This is in contrast to previous algorithms that use a fixed regularization function such as L2-squared, and modify it only via a single time-dependent parameter. Our algorithm's regret bounds are worst-case optimal, and for certain realistic classes of loss functions they are much better than existing bounds. These bounds are problem-dependent, which means they can exploit the structure of the actual problem instance. Critically, however, our algorithm does not need to know this structure in advance. Rather, we prove competitive guarantees that show the algorithm provides a bound within a constant factor of the best possible bound (of a certain functional form) in hindsight.Comment: Updates to match final COLT versio

Second-order Quantile Methods for Experts and Combinatorial Games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles