Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference

Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources, and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of ideas with few clear overarching principles. In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and comment on the path forward

Parallel Adaptive Collapsed Gibbs Sampling

Rao-Blackwellisation is a technique that provably improves the performance of Gibbs sampling by summing-out variables from the PGM. However, collapsing variables is computationally expensive, since it changes the PGM structure introducing factors whose size is dependent upon the Markov blanket of the variable. Therefore, collapsing out several variables jointly is typically intractable in arbitrary PGM structures. This thesis proposes an adaptive approach for Rao-Blackwellisation, where additional parallel Markov chains are defined over different collapsed PGM structures. The collapsed variables are chosen based on their convergence diagnostics. Adding chains requires re-burn-in the chain, thus wasting samples. To address this, new chains are initialized from a mean field approximation for the distribution, that improves over time, thus reducing the burn-in period. The experiments on several UAI benchmarks shows that this approach is more accurate than state-of-the-art inference systems such as Merlin which have previously won the UAI inference challenge

Balancing Global Exploration and Local-connectivity Exploitation with Rapidly-exploring Random disjointed-Trees

Sampling efficiency in a highly constrained environment has long been a major challenge for sampling-based planners. In this work, we propose Rapidly-exploring Random disjointed-Trees* (RRdT*), an incremental optimal multi-query planner. RRdT* uses multiple disjointed-trees to exploit local-connectivity of spaces via Markov Chain random sampling, which utilises neighbourhood information derived from previous successful and failed samples. To balance local exploitation, RRdT* actively explore unseen global spaces when local-connectivity exploitation is unsuccessful. The active trade-off between local exploitation and global exploration is formulated as a multi-armed bandit problem. We argue that the active balancing of global exploration and local exploitation is the key to improving sample efficient in sampling-based motion planners. We provide rigorous proofs of completeness and optimal convergence for this novel approach. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally the effectiveness of RRdT*'s locally exploring trees in granting improved visibility for planning. Consequently, RRdT* outperforms existing state-of-the-art incremental planners, especially in highly constrained environments.Comment: Submitted to IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

Solving Factored MDPs with Hybrid State and Action Variables

Efficient representations and solutions for large decision problems with continuous and discrete variables are among the most important challenges faced by the designers of automated decision support systems. In this paper, we describe a novel hybrid factored Markov decision process (MDP) model that allows for a compact representation of these problems, and a new hybrid approximate linear programming (HALP) framework that permits their efficient solutions. The central idea of HALP is to approximate the optimal value function by a linear combination of basis functions and optimize its weights by linear programming. We analyze both theoretical and computational aspects of this approach, and demonstrate its scale-up potential on several hybrid optimization problems

A new hybrid meta-heuristic algorithm for solving single machine scheduling problems

A dissertation submitted in partial ful lment of the degree of Master of Science in Engineering (Electrical) (50/50) in the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment Department of Electrical and Information Engineering May 2017Numerous applications in a wide variety of elds has resulted in a rich history of research into optimisation for scheduling. Although it is a fundamental form of the problem, the single machine scheduling problem with two or more objectives is known to be NP-hard. For this reason we consider the single machine problem a good test bed for solution algorithms. While there is a plethora of research into various aspects of scheduling problems, little has been done in evaluating the performance of the Simulated Annealing algorithm for the fundamental problem, or using it in combination with other techniques. Speci cally, this has not been done for minimising total weighted earliness and tardiness, which is the optimisation objective of this work. If we consider a mere ten jobs for scheduling, this results in over 3.6 million possible solution schedules. It is thus of de nite practical necessity to reduce the search space in order to nd an optimal or acceptable suboptimal solution in a shorter time, especially when scaling up the problem size. This is of particular importance in the application area of packet scheduling in wireless communications networks where the tolerance for computational delays is very low. The main contribution of this work is to investigate the hypothesis that inserting a step of pre-sampling by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods before running the Simulated Annealing algorithm on the pruned search space can result in overall reduced running times. The search space is divided into a number of sections and Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo is performed over the sections in order to reduce the search space for Simulated Annealing by a factor of 20 to 100. Trade-o s are found between the run time and number of sections of the pre-sampling algorithm, and the run time of Simulated Annealing for minimising the percentage deviation of the nal result from the optimal solution cost. Algorithm performance is determined both by computational complexity and the quality of the solution (i.e. the percentage deviation from the optimal). We nd that the running time can be reduced by a factor of 4.5 to ensure a 2% deviation from the optimal, as compared to the basic Simulated Annealing algorithm on the full search space. More importantly, we are able to reduce the complexity of nding the optimal from O(n:n!) for a complete search to O(nNS) for Simulated Annealing to O(n(NMr +NS)+m) for the input variables n jobs, NS SA iterations, NM Metropolis- Hastings iterations, r inner samples and m sections.MT 201

Hierarchical relational models for document networks

We develop the relational topic model (RTM), a hierarchical model of both network structure and node attributes. We focus on document networks, where the attributes of each document are its words, that is, discrete observations taken from a fixed vocabulary. For each pair of documents, the RTM models their link as a binary random variable that is conditioned on their contents. The model can be used to summarize a network of documents, predict links between them, and predict words within them. We derive efficient inference and estimation algorithms based on variational methods that take advantage of sparsity and scale with the number of links. We evaluate the predictive performance of the RTM for large networks of scientific abstracts, web documents, and geographically tagged news.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS309 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org