9,477 research outputs found
Adaptive importance sampling technique for markov chains using stochastic approximation
For a discrete-time finite-state Markov chain, we develop an adaptive importance sampling scheme to estimate the expected total cost before hitting a set of terminal states. This scheme updates the change of measure at every transition using constant or decreasing step-size stochastic approximation. The updates are shown to concentrate asymptotically in a neighborhood of the desired zero-variance estimator. Through simulation experiments on simple Markovian queues, we observe that the proposed technique performs very well in estimating performance measures related to rare events associated with queue lengths exceeding prescribed thresholds. We include performance comparisons of the proposed algorithm with existing adaptive importance sampling algorithms on some examples. We also discuss the extension of the technique to estimate the infinite horizon expected discounted cost and the expected average cost
An Adaptive Interacting Wang-Landau Algorithm for Automatic Density Exploration
While statisticians are well-accustomed to performing exploratory analysis in
the modeling stage of an analysis, the notion of conducting preliminary
general-purpose exploratory analysis in the Monte Carlo stage (or more
generally, the model-fitting stage) of an analysis is an area which we feel
deserves much further attention. Towards this aim, this paper proposes a
general-purpose algorithm for automatic density exploration. The proposed
exploration algorithm combines and expands upon components from various
adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, with the Wang-Landau algorithm at
its heart. Additionally, the algorithm is run on interacting parallel chains --
a feature which both decreases computational cost as well as stabilizes the
algorithm, improving its ability to explore the density. Performance is studied
in several applications. Through a Bayesian variable selection example, the
authors demonstrate the convergence gains obtained with interacting chains. The
ability of the algorithm's adaptive proposal to induce mode-jumping is
illustrated through a trimodal density and a Bayesian mixture modeling
application. Lastly, through a 2D Ising model, the authors demonstrate the
ability of the algorithm to overcome the high correlations encountered in
spatial models.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures (the supplementary materials are included as
appendices
Group Importance Sampling for Particle Filtering and MCMC
Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte
Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last
years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that
approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted
samples. In this work, we study the assignation of a single weighted sample
which compresses the information contained in a population of weighted samples.
Part of the theory that we present as Group Importance Sampling (GIS) has been
employed implicitly in different works in the literature. The provided analysis
yields several theoretical and practical consequences. For instance, we discuss
the application of GIS into the Sequential Importance Resampling framework and
show that Independent Multiple Try Metropolis schemes can be interpreted as a
standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, following the GIS approach. We also
introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques based on GIS.
The first one, named Group Metropolis Sampling method, produces a Markov chain
of sets of weighted samples. All these sets are then employed for obtaining a
unique global estimator. The second one is the Distributed Particle
Metropolis-Hastings technique, where different parallel particle filters are
jointly used to drive an MCMC algorithm. Different resampled trajectories are
compared and then tested with a proper acceptance probability. The novel
schemes are tested in different numerical experiments such as learning the
hyperparameters of Gaussian Processes, two localization problems in a wireless
sensor network (with synthetic and real data) and the tracking of vegetation
parameters given satellite observations, where they are compared with several
benchmark Monte Carlo techniques. Three illustrative Matlab demos are also
provided.Comment: To appear in Digital Signal Processing. Related Matlab demos are
provided at https://github.com/lukafree/GIS.gi
On computational tools for Bayesian data analysis
While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of
Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a
review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian
procedures. Recent innovations like Monte Carlo Markov chain, sequential Monte
Carlo methods and more recently Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques
have considerably increased the potential for Bayesian applications and they
have also opened new avenues for Bayesian inference, first and foremost
Bayesian model choice.Comment: This is a chapter for the book "Bayesian Methods and Expert
Elicitation" edited by Klaus Bocker, 23 pages, 9 figure
Simulation in Statistics
Simulation has become a standard tool in statistics because it may be the
only tool available for analysing some classes of probabilistic models. We
review in this paper simulation tools that have been specifically derived to
address statistical challenges and, in particular, recent advances in the areas
of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, and approximate
Bayesian calculation (ABC) algorithms.Comment: Draft of an advanced tutorial paper for the Proceedings of the 2011
Winter Simulation Conferenc
Gradient-free Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with Efficient Kernel Exponential Families
We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive
MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities
where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC
adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential
family model in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Computational costs are
reduced by two novel efficient approximations to this gradient. While being
asymptotically exact, KMC mimics HMC in terms of sampling efficiency, and
offers substantial mixing improvements over state-of-the-art gradient free
samplers. We support our claims with experimental studies on both toy and
real-world applications, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and
exact-approximate MCMC.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure
Orthogonal parallel MCMC methods for sampling and optimization
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and
optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A
well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms.
In order to foster better exploration of the state space, specially in
high-dimensional applications, several schemes employing multiple parallel MCMC
chains have been recently introduced. In this work, we describe a novel
parallel interacting MCMC scheme, called {\it orthogonal MCMC} (O-MCMC), where
a set of "vertical" parallel MCMC chains share information using some
"horizontal" MCMC techniques working on the entire population of current
states. More specifically, the vertical chains are led by random-walk
proposals, whereas the horizontal MCMC techniques employ independent proposals,
thus allowing an efficient combination of global exploration and local
approximation. The interaction is contained in these horizontal iterations.
Within the analysis of different implementations of O-MCMC, novel schemes in
order to reduce the overall computational cost of parallel multiple try
Metropolis (MTM) chains are also presented. Furthermore, a modified version of
O-MCMC for optimization is provided by considering parallel simulated annealing
(SA) algorithms. Numerical results show the advantages of the proposed sampling
scheme in terms of efficiency in the estimation, as well as robustness in terms
of independence with respect to initial values and the choice of the
parameters
Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference
Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand
for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an
excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge.
In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on
varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources,
and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of
ideas with few clear overarching principles.
In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and
intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing
modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation
techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles
that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and
comment on the path forward
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