Active Sampling-based Binary Verification of Dynamical Systems

Nonlinear, adaptive, or otherwise complex control techniques are increasingly relied upon to ensure the safety of systems operating in uncertain environments. However, the nonlinearity of the resulting closed-loop system complicates verification that the system does in fact satisfy those requirements at all possible operating conditions. While analytical proof-based techniques and finite abstractions can be used to provably verify the closed-loop system's response at different operating conditions, they often produce conservative approximations due to restrictive assumptions and are difficult to construct in many applications. In contrast, popular statistical verification techniques relax the restrictions and instead rely upon simulations to construct statistical or probabilistic guarantees. This work presents a data-driven statistical verification procedure that instead constructs statistical learning models from simulated training data to separate the set of possible perturbations into "safe" and "unsafe" subsets. Binary evaluations of closed-loop system requirement satisfaction at various realizations of the uncertainties are obtained through temporal logic robustness metrics, which are then used to construct predictive models of requirement satisfaction over the full set of possible uncertainties. As the accuracy of these predictive statistical models is inherently coupled to the quality of the training data, an active learning algorithm selects additional sample points in order to maximize the expected change in the data-driven model and thus, indirectly, minimize the prediction error. Various case studies demonstrate the closed-loop verification procedure and highlight improvements in prediction error over both existing analytical and statistical verification techniques.Comment: 23 page

Closed-Loop Statistical Verification of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems Subject to Parametric Uncertainties

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the proposed framework constructs a GP regression model and predicts the system's performance over the entire set of possible uncertainties. Included in the framework is a new metric to estimate the confidence in those predictions based on the variance of the GP's cumulative distribution function. This variance-based metric forms the basis of active sampling algorithms that aim to minimize prediction error through careful selection of simulations. In three case studies, the new active sampling algorithms demonstrate up to a 35% improvement in prediction error over other approaches and are able to correctly identify regions with low prediction confidence through the variance metric.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to ACC 201

The stellar and sub-stellar IMF of simple and composite populations

The current knowledge on the stellar IMF is documented. It appears to become top-heavy when the star-formation rate density surpasses about 0.1Msun/(yr pc^3) on a pc scale and it may become increasingly bottom-heavy with increasing metallicity and in increasingly massive early-type galaxies. It declines quite steeply below about 0.07Msun with brown dwarfs (BDs) and very low mass stars having their own IMF. The most massive star of mass mmax formed in an embedded cluster with stellar mass Mecl correlates strongly with Mecl being a result of gravitation-driven but resource-limited growth and fragmentation induced starvation. There is no convincing evidence whatsoever that massive stars do form in isolation. Various methods of discretising a stellar population are introduced: optimal sampling leads to a mass distribution that perfectly represents the exact form of the desired IMF and the mmax-to-Mecl relation, while random sampling results in statistical variations of the shape of the IMF. The observed mmax-to-Mecl correlation and the small spread of IMF power-law indices together suggest that optimally sampling the IMF may be the more realistic description of star formation than random sampling from a universal IMF with a constant upper mass limit. Composite populations on galaxy scales, which are formed from many pc scale star formation events, need to be described by the integrated galactic IMF. This IGIMF varies systematically from top-light to top-heavy in dependence of galaxy type and star formation rate, with dramatic implications for theories of galaxy formation and evolution.Comment: 167 pages, 37 figures, 3 tables, published in Stellar Systems and Galactic Structure, Vol.5, Springer. This revised version is consistent with the published version and includes additional references and minor additions to the text as well as a recomputed Table 1. ISBN 978-90-481-8817-

Conformance Testing as Falsification for Cyber-Physical Systems

In Model-Based Design of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), it is often desirable to develop several models of varying fidelity. Models of different fidelity levels can enable mathematical analysis of the model, control synthesis, faster simulation etc. Furthermore, when (automatically or manually) transitioning from a model to its implementation on an actual computational platform, then again two different versions of the same system are being developed. In all previous cases, it is necessary to define a rigorous notion of conformance between different models and between models and their implementations. This paper argues that conformance should be a measure of distance between systems. Albeit a range of theoretical distance notions exists, a way to compute such distances for industrial size systems and models has not been proposed yet. This paper addresses exactly this problem. A universal notion of conformance as closeness between systems is rigorously defined, and evidence is presented that this implies a number of other application-dependent conformance notions. An algorithm for detecting that two systems are not conformant is then proposed, which uses existing proven tools. A method is also proposed to measure the degree of conformance between two systems. The results are demonstrated on a range of models

Invariant Manifolds and Rate Constants in Driven Chemical Reactions

Reaction rates of chemical reactions under nonequilibrium conditions can be determined through the construction of the normally hyperbolic invariant manifold (NHIM) [and moving dividing surface (DS)] associated with the transition state trajectory. Here, we extend our recent methods by constructing points on the NHIM accurately even for multidimensional cases. We also advance the implementation of machine learning approaches to construct smooth versions of the NHIM from a known high-accuracy set of its points. That is, we expand on our earlier use of neural nets, and introduce the use of Gaussian process regression for the determination of the NHIM. Finally, we compare and contrast all of these methods for a challenging two-dimensional model barrier case so as to illustrate their accuracy and general applicability.Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures, table of contents figur

The M4 Core Project with HST --- I. Overview and First-Epoch

We present an overview of the ongoing Hubble Space Telescope large program GO-12911. The program is focused on the core of M4, the nearest Galactic globular cluster, and the observations are designed to constrain the number of binaries with massive companions (black holes, neutron stars, or white dwarfs) by measuring the ``wobble'' of the luminous (main-sequence) companion around the center of mass of the pair, with an astrometric precision of ~50 micro-arcseconds. The high spatial resolution and stable medium-band PSFs of WFC3/UVIS will make these measurements possible. In this work we describe: (i) the motivation behind this study, (ii) our observing strategy, (iii) the many other investigations enabled by this unique data set, and which of those our team is conducting, and (iv) a preliminary reduction of the first-epoch data-set collected on October 10, 2012.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures (9 at low resolution), 3 tables. Published in: Astronomische Nachrichten, Volume 334, Issue 10, pages 1062-1085, December 2013. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asna.201311911/abstrac