Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets

A variation of the Minority Game has been applied to study the timing of promotional actions at retailers in the fast moving consumer goods market. The underlying hypotheses for this work are that price promotions are more effective when fewer than average competitors do a promotion, and that a promotion strategy can be based on past sales data. The first assumption has been checked by analysing 1467 promotional actions for three products on the Dutch market (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) over a 120-week period, both on an aggregated level and on retailer chain level. The second assumption was tested by analysing past sales data with the Minority Game. This revealed that high or low competitor promotional pressure for actual ketchup, mayonnaise, curry sauce and barbecue sauce markets is to some extent predictable up to a forecast of some 10 weeks. Whereas a random guess would be right 50% of the time, a single-agent game can predict the market with a success rate of 56% for a 6 to 9 week forecast. This number is the same for all four mentioned fast moving consumer markets. For a multi-agent game a larger variability in the success rate is obtained, but predictability can be as high as 65%. Contrary to expectation, the actual market does the opposite of what game theory would predict. This points at a systematic oscillation in the market. Even though this result is not fully understood, merely observing that this trend is present in the data could lead to exploitable trading benefits. As a check, random history strings were generated from which the statistical variation in the game prediction was studied. This shows that the odds are 1:1,000,000 that the observed pattern in the market is based on coincidence.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Physica

Occlusion of LTP-Like Plasticity in Human Primary Motor Cortex by Action Observation

Passive observation of motor actions induces cortical activity in the primary motor cortex (M1) of the onlooker, which could potentially contribute to motor learning. While recent studies report modulation of motor performance following action observation, the neurophysiological mechanism supporting these behavioral changes remains to be specifically defined. Here, we assessed whether the observation of a repetitive thumb movement – similarly to active motor practice – would inhibit subsequent long-term potentiation-like (LTP) plasticity induced by paired-associative stimulation (PAS). Before undergoing PAS, participants were asked to either 1) perform abductions of the right thumb as fast as possible; 2) passively observe someone else perform thumb abductions; or 3) passively observe a moving dot mimicking thumb movements. Motor evoked potentials (MEP) were used to assess cortical excitability before and after motor practice (or observation) and at two time points following PAS. Results show that, similarly to participants in the motor practice group, individuals observing repeated motor actions showed marked inhibition of PAS-induced LTP, while the “moving dot” group displayed the expected increase in MEP amplitude, despite differences in baseline excitability. Interestingly, LTP occlusion in the action-observation group was present even if no increase in cortical excitability or movement speed was observed following observation. These results suggest that mere observation of repeated hand actions is sufficient to induce LTP, despite the absence of motor learning

Introduction: Courting Catastrophe? Can Humanitarian Actions Contribute to Climate Change Adaptation?

Climate change introduces new challenges for humanitarian aid through changing hazard patterns. The linkages between climate change and humanitarian aid are complex. While humanitarian organisations deal directly with vulnerable populations, interventions and actions also form part of global politics and development pathways that are currently generating climate change, inequities and vulnerability. This IDS Bulletin represents a call for increasing engagement between humanitarian aid and adaptation interventions to support deliberate transformation of development pathways. Based on studies carried out as part of the ‘Courting Catastrophe’ project, we argue that humanitarian interventions offer several entry points and opportunities for a common agenda to drive transformational adaptation. Changes in political and financial frameworks are needed to facilitate longer-term actions; additionally, transformational adaptation demands moving from a mode of delivering expert advice and solutions to vulnerable populations, to taking up multiple vulnerability knowledges and making space for contestation of current development

Punishing Collective Entities

This Article argues that, while the legal world treats corporate entities as people for legal purposes, this legal framing does not fit well with na\u27ve models of assessing responsibility and blame. These difficulties raise questions about the value of treating entities as people for legal purposes just at a time when the United States Supreme Court seems to be moving actively to increase this entity as a person legal metaphor. The Article first reviews the literature on the psychology of responsibility and then presents both survey and experimental data that compares reactions to individual and organizational level wrongdoing. We argue that the data suggests that people have greater trouble holding entities responsible for wrongdoing and punishing them than they do making judgments of responsibility and endorsing punitive actions for individuals. In an era of corporate scandal and wrongdoing, this difficulty points to a problem within the law–the process of punishing corporate misconduct is more problematic than the process of punishing individual misconduct

Action Recognition in Videos: from Motion Capture Labs to the Web

This paper presents a survey of human action recognition approaches based on visual data recorded from a single video camera. We propose an organizing framework which puts in evidence the evolution of the area, with techniques moving from heavily constrained motion capture scenarios towards more challenging, realistic, "in the wild" videos. The proposed organization is based on the representation used as input for the recognition task, emphasizing the hypothesis assumed and thus, the constraints imposed on the type of video that each technique is able to address. Expliciting the hypothesis and constraints makes the framework particularly useful to select a method, given an application. Another advantage of the proposed organization is that it allows categorizing newest approaches seamlessly with traditional ones, while providing an insightful perspective of the evolution of the action recognition task up to now. That perspective is the basis for the discussion in the end of the paper, where we also present the main open issues in the area.Comment: Preprint submitted to CVIU, survey paper, 46 pages, 2 figures, 4 table