Accounting for Errors When Using Systems Approaches

Complex systems problems require the use of a formal philosophical construct and dictate the use of a rigorous systems approach. A systems approach may utilize one of a variety of proven methods, but in each case it involves the imposition of order that ranges from the philosophical to the procedural. Independent of the construct or rigor used to address the complex systems problem is the opportunity to commit a number of errors as part of a systems approach. This paper will discuss six classifications for problem solving errors that may be experienced during the application of a systems approach as part of understanding and treating complex systems problems. © 2013 The Authors

How System Errors Affect Aircrew Resource Management (CRM)

System errors, both mechanical and human in nature, can have a grave effect on aircrew judgement in flight. The effects of these errors can be massively compounded during emergency situations. Crew Resource Management (CRM) is an important process aircrews can utilize to minimize risks and enhance assessments. The employment of this technique can be validated by aviation mishaps over the last three decades and how system errors increased the probability of the incident occurring. Suggestions can be made to further prevent similar accidents from occurring in the future utilizing historical aeronautical records. This paper outlines an approach by which systems errors can be recognized and prevented using CRM. It is the hope of the authors that employing such an approach will drastically decrease the incidence rate and severity of aviation mishaps due to systems errors. 2015 The Authors

A Review of Problem Structuring Methods for Consideration in Prognostics and Smart Manufacturing

Successful use of prognostics involves the prediction of future system behaviors in an effort to maintain system availability and reduce the cost of maintenance and repairs. Recent work by the National Institute of Standards and Technology indicates that the field of prognostics and health management is vital for remaining competitive in today’s manufacturing environment. While prognostics-based maintenance involves many traditional operations research-centric challenges for successful deployment such as limited availability of information and concerns regarding computational efficiency, the authors argue in this paper that the field of prognostics and health management, still in its embryonic development stage, could benefit greatly from considering soft operations research techniques as well. Specifically, the authors propose the use of qualitative problem structuring techniques that aid in problem understanding and scoping. This paper provides an overview of these soft methods and discusses and demonstrates how manufacturers might use them. An approach combining problem structuring methods with traditional operations research techniques would help accelerate the development of the prognostics field

A Review of Problem Structuring Methods for Consideration in Prognostics and Smart Manufacturing

Successful use of prognostics involves the prediction of future system behaviors in an effort to maintain system availability and reduce the cost of maintenance and repairs. Recent work by the National Institute of Standards and Technology indicates that the field of prognostics and health management is vital for remaining competitive in today’s manufacturing environment. While prognostics-based maintenance involves many traditional operations researchcentric challenges for successful deployment such as limited availability of information and concerns regarding computational efficiency, the authors argue in this paper that the field of prognostics and health management, still in its embryonic development stage, could benefit greatly from considering soft operations research techniques as well. Specifically, the authors propose the use of qualitative problem structuring techniques that aid in problem understanding and scoping. This paper provides an overview of these soft methods and discusses and demonstrates how manufacturers might use them. An approach combining problem structuring methods with traditional operations research techniques would help accelerate the development of the prognostics field

The Messy Nuclear Landscape: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to Explore Plausible Nuclear Disarmament Scenarios

Nuclear weapons are seemingly permanent fixtures in international relations. Although nuclear abolitionists and actors within the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have taken significant steps towards designing a world without nuclear weapons, the longstanding realist logic that suggests nuclear disarmament is nonviable has born more fruit. On the other hand, some proponents of realism have suggested global nuclear disarmament is feasible, given that certain international instabilities are stabilized and that special care is taken during diplomatic negotiations. This presents an opportunity to test these predictions using fuzzy cognitive mapping, a computational modeling technique that identifies problems, their stakeholders, and stakeholders’ components in order to determine scenarios that solve complex disputes in ways that benefit the system as a whole. This study identifies two problems regarding nuclear disarmament. First, nuclear weapon states are resistant to giving up nuclear weapons, despite agreements to disarm. This problem follows realist logic. Second, the role that the IAEA plays in safeguarding special nuclear materials while guaranteeing states’ rights to nuclear technology is contrasted by states’ interest in maintaining levels of secrecy. These two problems constitute a “mess” that this study analyzes. Synthesis between the problems requires that solving one does not make the other worse. Therefore, this study tests various scenarios and finds that, given present-day international instabilities are stabilized, nuclear disarmament is feasible if three conditions are met: First, a global disarmament agreement must not unreasonably affect states’ sovereign rights outside of the agreement. Second, states outlying the NPT must be brought into the negotiations. Finally, present states with nuclear arsenals adopt the IAEA’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the Additional Protocol as a measure of good faith. A final factor suggests states’ rights to the technology inevitably means states should have an ability to re-proliferate in the event of future international instability that threatens global security. Once these steps are taken and technological rights guaranteed, this model suggests global nuclear disarmament is possible

Accounting for Errors When Using Systems Approaches

Complex systems problems require the use of a formal philosophical construct and dictate the use of a rigorous systems approach. A systems approach may utilize one of a variety of proven methods, but in each case it involves the imposition of order that ranges from the philosophical to the procedural. Independent of the construct or rigor used to address the complex systems problem is the opportunity to commit a number of errors as part of a systems approach. This paper will discuss six classifications for problem solving errors that may be experienced during the application of a systems approach as part of understanding and treating complex systems problems. © 2013 The Authors