The spatial-temporal patterns of Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to Holocene insolation change: a model-data synthesis

Highlights: • Slice and transient simulations of Holocene climate change were performed. • Spatial–temporal patterns of Holocene Asian summer precipitation are investigated. • A tripole pattern of summer precipitation can be seen over monsoonal Asia. • Insolation change is a key factor for Holocene Asian summer monsoon change. • Internal feedbacks are important to Holocene Asian summer precipitation changes. Abstract: Paleoclimate proxy records of precipitation/effective moisture show spatial–temporal inhomogeneous over Asian monsoon and monsoon marginal regions during the Holocene. To investigate the spatial differences and diverging temporal evolution over monsoonal Asia and monsoon marginal regions, we conduct a series of numerical experiments with an atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled climate model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), for the period of Holocene from 9.5 ka BP to present (0 ka BP). The simulations include two time-slice equilibrium experiments for early Holocene (9.5 ka BP) and present-day (0 ka BP), respectively and one transient simulation (HT) using a scheme for model acceleration regarding to the Earth's orbitally driven insolation forcing for the whole period of Holocene (from 9.5 to 0 ka BP). The simulated summer precipitation in the equilibrium experiments shows a tripole pattern over monsoonal Asia as depicted by the first modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of H0K and H9K. The transient simulation HT exhibits a wave train pattern in the summer precipitation across the Asian monsoon region associated with a gradually decreased trend in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, as a result of the response of Asian summer monsoon system to the Holocene orbitally-forced insolation change. Both the synthesis of multi-proxy records and model experiments confirm the regional dissimilarity of the Holocene optimum precipitation/effective moisture over the East Asian summer monsoon region, monsoon marginal region, and the westerly-dominated areas, suggesting the complex response of the regional climate systems to Holocene insolation change in association with the internal feedbacks within climate system, such as the air-sea interactions associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the evolution of Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

South Asian monsoon history over the past 60 kyr recorded by radiogenic isotopes and clay mineral assemblages in the Andaman Sea

The Late Quaternary variability of the South Asian (or Indian) monsoon has been linked with glacial‐interglacial and millennial scale climatic changes but past rainfall intensity in the river catchments draining into the Andaman Sea remains poorly constrained. Here we use radiogenic Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope compositions of the detrital clay‐size fraction and clay mineral assemblages obtained from sediment core NGHP Site 17 in the Andaman Sea to reconstruct the variability of the South Asian monsoon during the past 60 kyr. Over this time interval εNd values changed little, generally oscillating between −7.3 and −5.3 and the Pb isotope signatures are essentially invariable, which is in contrast to a record located further northeast in the Andaman Sea. This indicates that the source of the detrital clays did not change significantly during the last glacial and deglaciation suggesting the monsoon was spatially stable. The most likely source region is the Irrawaddy river catchment including the Indo‐Burman Ranges with a possible minor contribution from the Andaman Islands. High smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios (up to 14), as well as low 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.711) for the Holocene period indicate enhanced chemical weathering and a stronger South Asian monsoon compared to marine oxygen isotope stages 2 and 3. Short, smectite‐poor intervals exhibit markedly radiogenic Sr isotope compositions and document weakening of the South Asian monsoon, which may have been linked to short‐term northern Atlantic climate variability on millennial time scales

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change

A Unique Feature of the Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Global Warming: The Role of Different Land–Sea Thermal Contrast Change between the Lower and Upper Troposphere

Recent studies indicate that the view of a general weakening of the monsoon circulation in a warmer climate cannot be simply applied in the Asian monsoon regions. To understand the Asian summer monsoon response to global warming, idealized multi-model experiments are analyzed. In the coupled model response to increased CO2, monsoon westerlies in the lower troposphere are shifted poleward and slightly strengthened over land including South Asia and East Asia, while the tropical easterly jet in the upper troposphere are broadly weakened. The different circulation responses between the lower and upper troposphere is associated with vertically opposite changes in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Eurasian continent and the tropical Indian Ocean, with a strengthening (weakening) in the lower (upper) troposphere. Atmospheric model experiments to separate the effects of CO2 radiative forcing and sea surface temperature warming reveal that the strengthened MTG in the lower troposphere is explained by the CO2 forcing. On a global perspective, CO2-induced enhancement of the land–sea thermal contrast and resultant circulation changes are the most influential in the South Asian monsoon. This study emphasizes an important role of the land warming on the Asian monsoon response to global warming

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales

The Mechanical Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the Seasonal Evolution of the South Asian Monsoon

The impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian monsoon is examined using a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulation models. During the premonsoon season and monsoon onset (April–June), when westerly winds over the Southern Tibetan Plateau are still strong, the Tibetan Plateau triggers early monsoon rainfall downstream, particularly over the Bay of Bengal and South China. The downstream moist convection is accompanied by strong monsoonal low-level winds. In experiments where the Tibetan Plateau is removed, monsoon onset occurs about a month later, but the monsoon circulation becomes progressively stronger and reaches comparable strength during the mature phase. During the mature and decaying phase of monsoon (July–September), when westerly winds over the Southern Tibetan Plateau almost disappear, monsoon circulation strength is not much affected by the presence of the Tibetan Plateau. A dry dynamical core with east–west-oriented narrow mountains in the subtropics consistently simulates downstream convergence with background zonal westerlies over the mountain. In a moist atmosphere, the mechanically driven downstream convergence is expected to be associated with significant moisture convergence. The authors speculate that the mechanically driven downstream convergence in the presence of the Tibetan Plateau is responsible for zonally asymmetric monsoon onset, particularly over the Bay of Bengal and South China

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution. During the past four decades, many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations. The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification, but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further. This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment, summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift, phased uplift and sub-regional uplift, and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts. From previous modeling results, the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon. However, the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia, the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body, especially the northern part of the TP. In this review, we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors, origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon, feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift. Finally, we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records, discuss their uncertainties, and highlight some problems worthy of further studying

Late Holocene forcing of the Asian winter and summer monsoon as evidenced by proxy records from the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Little is known about decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability and its associated forcing mechanisms on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. A decadal-resolution record of total organic carbon (TOC) and grainsize retrieved from a composite piston core from Kusai Lake, NW China, provides solid evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale Asian monsoon variability for the Northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the last 3770 yr. Intensified winter and summer monsoons are well correlated with respective reductions and increases in solar irradiance. A number of intensified Asian winter monsoon phases are potentially correlated with North Atlantic climatic variations including Bond events 0 to 2 and more recent subtle climate changes from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Our findings indicate that Asian monsoon changes during the late Holocene are forced by changes in both solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results demonstrate that these forcing mechanisms operate not only in low latitudes but also in mid-latitude regions (the Northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau)