Stochastic simulation framework for the Limit Order Book using liquidity motivated agents

In this paper we develop a new form of agent-based model for limit order books based on heterogeneous trading agents, whose motivations are liquidity driven. These agents are abstractions of real market participants, expressed in a stochastic model framework. We develop an efficient way to perform statistical calibration of the model parameters on Level 2 limit order book data from Chi-X, based on a combination of indirect inference and multi-objective optimisation. We then demonstrate how such an agent-based modelling framework can be of use in testing exchange regulations, as well as informing brokerage decisions and other trading based scenarios

The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

Identification and adaptive control of a high-contrast focal plane wavefront correction system

All coronagraphic instruments for exoplanet high-contrast imaging need wavefront correction systems to reject optical aberrations and create sufficiently dark holes. Since the most efficient wavefront correction algorithms (controllers and estimators) are usually model-based, the modeling accuracy of the system influences the ultimate wavefront correction performance. Currently, wavefront correction systems are typically approximated as linear systems using Fourier optics. However, the Fourier optics model is usually biased due to inaccuracies in the layout measurements, the imperfect diagnoses of inherent optical aberrations, and a lack of knowledge of the deformable mirrors (actuator gains and influence functions). Moreover, the telescope optical system varies over time because of instrument instabilities and environmental effects. In this paper, we present an expectation-maximization (E-M) approach for identifying and real-time adapting the linear telescope model from data. By iterating between the E-step (a Kalman filter and a Rauch smoother) and the M-step (analytical or gradient-based optimization), the algorithm is able to recover the system even if the model depends on the electric fields, which are unmeasurable hidden variables. Simulations and experiments in Princeton's High Contrast Imaging Lab demonstrate that this algorithm improves the model accuracy and increases the efficiency and speed of the wavefront correction

A mixed integer linear programming model for optimal sovereign debt issuance

Copyright @ 2011, Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in the European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version is available at the link below.Governments borrow funds to finance the excess of cash payments or interest payments over receipts, usually by issuing fixed income debt and index-linked debt. The goal of this work is to propose a stochastic optimization-based approach to determine the composition of the portfolio issued over a series of government auctions for the fixed income debt, to minimize the cost of servicing debt while controlling risk and maintaining market liquidity. We show that this debt issuance problem can be modeled as a mixed integer linear programming problem with a receding horizon. The stochastic model for the interest rates is calibrated using a Kalman filter and the future interest rates are represented using a recombining trinomial lattice for the purpose of scenario-based optimization. The use of a latent factor interest rate model and a recombining lattice provides us with a realistic, yet very tractable scenario generator and allows us to do a multi-stage stochastic optimization involving integer variables on an ordinary desktop in a matter of seconds. This, in turn, facilitates frequent re-calibration of the interest rate model and re-optimization of the issuance throughout the budgetary year allows us to respond to the changes in the interest rate environment. We successfully demonstrate the utility of our approach by out-of-sample back-testing on the UK debt issuance data

The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics

After reviewing the reasons to use solution methods in macroeconomics,this survey paper discusses diferent aspects relative to a rigorous use of the numerical output of such methods. Special attention is paid to suggestions that have been made to incorporate parameter uncertainty. Finally, the need to test for usually maintained assumptions, such as rationality of expectations, is emphasized.Numerical solution methods, Rational expectations, Calibration.