Control of aircraft in the terminal manoeuvring area using parallelised sequential Monte Carlo

This paper reports on the use of a parallelised Model Predictive Control, Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for solving the problem of conflict resolution and aircraft trajectory control in air traffic management specifically around the terminal manoeuvring area of an airport. The target problem is nonlinear, highly constrained, non-convex and uses a single decision-maker with multiple aircraft. The implementation includes a spatio-temporal wind model and rolling window simulations for realistic ongoing scenarios. The method is capable of handling arriving and departing aircraft simultaneously including some with very low fuel remaining. A novel flow field is proposed to smooth the approach trajectories for arriving aircraft and all trajectories are planned in three dimensions. Massive parallelisation of the algorithm allows solution speeds to approach those required for real-time use.This work was supported by EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council - UK) Grant No. EP/G066477/1AIAA Conference on Guidance, Navigation and Control 201

Spatio-temporal variability analysis of territorial resistance and resilience to risk assessment

Natural materials, such as soils, are influenced by many factors acting during their formative and evolutionary process: atmospheric agents, erosion and transport phenomena, sedimentation conditions that give soil properties a non-reducible randomness by using sophisticated survey techniques and technologies. This character is reflected not only in the spatial variability of soil properties which differ punctually, but also in their multivariate correlation as function of reciprocal distance. Cognitive enrichment, offered by the response of soils associated with their spatial variability, implies an increase in the evaluative capacity of contributing causes and potential effects in the field of failure phenomena. Stability analysis of natural slopes is well suited to stochastic treatment of the uncertainty which characterized landslide risk. In particular, the research activity has been carried out in back-analysis to a slope located in Southern Italy that was subject to repeated phenomena of hydrogeological instability - extended for several kilometers and recently reactivated - applying spatial analysis to the controlling factors and quantifying the hydrogeological susceptibility through unbiased estimators and indicators. A natural phenomenon, defined as geo-stochastic process, is indeed characterized by interacting variables leading to identifying the most critical areas affected by instability. Through a sensitivity analysis of the local variability as well as a reliability assessment of the time-based scenarios, an improvement of the forecasting content has been obtained. Moreover, the phenomenological characterization will allow to optimize the attribution of the levels of risk to the wide territory involved, supporting decision-making process for intervention priorities as well as the effective allocation of the available resources in social, environmental and economic contexts

End-to-end anomaly detection in stream data

Nowadays, huge volumes of data are generated with increasing velocity through various systems, applications, and activities. This increases the demand for stream and time series analysis to react to changing conditions in real-time for enhanced efficiency and quality of service delivery as well as upgraded safety and security in private and public sectors. Despite its very rich history, time series anomaly detection is still one of the vital topics in machine learning research and is receiving increasing attention. Identifying hidden patterns and selecting an appropriate model that fits the observed data well and also carries over to unobserved data is not a trivial task. Due to the increasing diversity of data sources and associated stochastic processes, this pivotal data analysis topic is loaded with various challenges like complex latent patterns, concept drift, and overfitting that may mislead the model and cause a high false alarm rate. Handling these challenges leads the advanced anomaly detection methods to develop sophisticated decision logic, which turns them into mysterious and inexplicable black-boxes. Contrary to this trend, end-users expect transparency and verifiability to trust a model and the outcomes it produces. Also, pointing the users to the most anomalous/malicious areas of time series and causal features could save them time, energy, and money. For the mentioned reasons, this thesis is addressing the crucial challenges in an end-to-end pipeline of stream-based anomaly detection through the three essential phases of behavior prediction, inference, and interpretation. The first step is focused on devising a time series model that leads to high average accuracy as well as small error deviation. On this basis, we propose higher-quality anomaly detection and scoring techniques that utilize the related contexts to reclassify the observations and post-pruning the unjustified events. Last but not least, we make the predictive process transparent and verifiable by providing meaningful reasoning behind its generated results based on the understandable concepts by a human. The provided insight can pinpoint the anomalous regions of time series and explain why the current status of a system has been flagged as anomalous. Stream-based anomaly detection research is a principal area of innovation to support our economy, security, and even the safety and health of societies worldwide. We believe our proposed analysis techniques can contribute to building a situational awareness platform and open new perspectives in a variety of domains like cybersecurity, and health

Mutual Information as Intrinsic Reward of Reinforcement Learning Agents for On-demand Ride Pooling

The emergence of on-demand ride pooling services allows each vehicle to serve multiple passengers at a time, thus increasing drivers' income and enabling passengers to travel at lower prices than taxi/car on-demand services (only one passenger can be assigned to a car at a time like UberX and Lyft). Although on-demand ride pooling services can bring so many benefits, ride pooling services need a well-defined matching strategy to maximize the benefits for all parties (passengers, drivers, aggregation companies and environment), in which the regional dispatching of vehicles has a significant impact on the matching and revenue. Existing algorithms often only consider revenue maximization, which makes it difficult for requests with unusual distribution to get a ride. How to increase revenue while ensuring a reasonable assignment of requests brings a challenge to ride pooling service companies (aggregation companies). In this paper, we propose a framework for vehicle dispatching for ride pooling tasks, which splits the city into discrete dispatching regions and uses the reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to dispatch vehicles in these regions. We also consider the mutual information (MI) between vehicle and order distribution as the intrinsic reward of the RL algorithm to improve the correlation between their distributions, thus ensuring the possibility of getting a ride for unusually distributed requests. In experimental results on a real-world taxi dataset, we demonstrate that our framework can significantly increase revenue up to an average of 3\% over the existing best on-demand ride pooling method.Comment: Accepted by AAMAS 202