Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Parameter Estimation of Social Forces in Crowd Dynamics Models via a Probabilistic Method

Focusing on a specific crowd dynamics situation, including real life experiments and measurements, our paper targets a twofold aim: (1) we present a Bayesian probabilistic method to estimate the value and the uncertainty (in the form of a probability density function) of parameters in crowd dynamic models from the experimental data; and (2) we introduce a fitness measure for the models to classify a couple of model structures (forces) according to their fitness to the experimental data, preparing the stage for a more general model-selection and validation strategy inspired by probabilistic data analysis. Finally, we review the essential aspects of our experimental setup and measurement technique.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figure

Realtime Multilevel Crowd Tracking using Reciprocal Velocity Obstacles

We present a novel, realtime algorithm to compute the trajectory of each pedestrian in moderately dense crowd scenes. Our formulation is based on an adaptive particle filtering scheme that uses a multi-agent motion model based on velocity-obstacles, and takes into account local interactions as well as physical and personal constraints of each pedestrian. Our method dynamically changes the number of particles allocated to each pedestrian based on different confidence metrics. Additionally, we use a new high-definition crowd video dataset, which is used to evaluate the performance of different pedestrian tracking algorithms. This dataset consists of videos of indoor and outdoor scenes, recorded at different locations with 30-80 pedestrians. We highlight the performance benefits of our algorithm over prior techniques using this dataset. In practice, our algorithm can compute trajectories of tens of pedestrians on a multi-core desktop CPU at interactive rates (27-30 frames per second). To the best of our knowledge, our approach is 4-5 times faster than prior methods, which provide similar accuracy

Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions

To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data. The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic environment.Comment: Submitted to 2014 International Workshop on the Algorithmic Foundations of Robotic

A Multi-cut Formulation for Joint Segmentation and Tracking of Multiple Objects

Recently, Minimum Cost Multicut Formulations have been proposed and proven to be successful in both motion trajectory segmentation and multi-target tracking scenarios. Both tasks benefit from decomposing a graphical model into an optimal number of connected components based on attractive and repulsive pairwise terms. The two tasks are formulated on different levels of granularity and, accordingly, leverage mostly local information for motion segmentation and mostly high-level information for multi-target tracking. In this paper we argue that point trajectories and their local relationships can contribute to the high-level task of multi-target tracking and also argue that high-level cues from object detection and tracking are helpful to solve motion segmentation. We propose a joint graphical model for point trajectories and object detections whose Multicuts are solutions to motion segmentation {\it and} multi-target tracking problems at once. Results on the FBMS59 motion segmentation benchmark as well as on pedestrian tracking sequences from the 2D MOT 2015 benchmark demonstrate the promise of this joint approach