23,671 research outputs found
Uncertainty quantification of coal seam gas production prediction using Polynomial Chaos
A surrogate model approximates a computationally expensive solver. Polynomial
Chaos is a method to construct surrogate models by summing combinations of
carefully chosen polynomials. The polynomials are chosen to respect the
probability distributions of the uncertain input variables (parameters); this
allows for both uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis.
In this paper we apply these techniques to a commercial solver for the
estimation of peak gas rate and cumulative gas extraction from a coal seam gas
well. The polynomial expansion is shown to honour the underlying geophysics
with low error when compared to a much more complex and computationally slower
commercial solver. We make use of advanced numerical integration techniques to
achieve this accuracy using relatively small amounts of training data
Short and long-term wind turbine power output prediction
In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that
accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are
used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding,
monitoring, and preventive maintenance. As a first step, and following the
guidelines of the existing literature, we use the supervisory control and data
acquisition (SCADA) data to model the wind turbine power curve (WTPC). We
explore various parametric and non-parametric approaches for the modeling of
the WTPC, such as parametric logistic functions, and non-parametric piecewise
linear, polynomial, or cubic spline interpolation functions. We demonstrate
that all aforementioned classes of models are rich enough (with respect to
their relative complexity) to accurately model the WTPC, as their mean squared
error (MSE) is close to the MSE lower bound calculated from the historical
data. We further enhance the accuracy of our proposed model, by incorporating
additional environmental factors that affect the power output, such as the
ambient temperature, and the wind direction. However, all aforementioned
models, when it comes to forecasting, seem to have an intrinsic limitation, due
to their inability to capture the inherent auto-correlation of the data. To
avoid this conundrum, we show that adding a properly scaled ARMA modeling layer
increases short-term prediction performance, while keeping the long-term
prediction capability of the model
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