Analysis of Illegal Parking Behavior in Lisbon: Predicting and Analyzing Illegal Parking Incidents in Lisbon´s Top 10 Critical Streets

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business IntelligenceIllegal parking represents a costly and pervasive problem for most cities, as it not only leads to an increase in traffic congestion and the emission of air pollutants but also compromises pedestrian, biking, and driving safety. Moreover, it obstructs the flow of emergency vehicles, delivery services, and other essential functions, posing a significant risk to public safety and impeding the efficient operation of urban services. These detrimental effects ultimately diminish the cleanliness, security, and overall attractiveness of cities, impacting the well-being of both residents and visitors alike. Traditionally, decision-support systems utilized for addressing illegal parking have heavily relied on costly camera systems and complex video-processing algorithms to detect and monitor infractions in real time. However, the implementation of such systems is often challenging and expensive, particularly considering the diverse and dynamic road environment conditions. Alternatively, research studies focusing on spatiotemporal features for predicting parking infractions present a more efficient and cost-effective approach. This project focuses on the development of a machine learning model to accurately predict illegal parking incidents in the ten highly critical streets of Lisbon Municipality, taking into account the hour period and whether it is a weekend or holiday. A comprehensive evaluation of various machine learning algorithms was conducted, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm emerged as the top performing model. The KNN model exhibited robust predictive capabilities, effectively estimating the occurrence of illegal parking in the most critical streets, and together with the creation of an interactive and user-friendly dashboard, this project contributes valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies, empowering them to enhance public safety and security through informed decision-making

Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure

Evaluating Mobility Impacts of Construction Work Zones on Utah Transportation System Using Machine Learning Techniques

Construction work zones are inevitable parts of daily operations at roadway systems. They have a significant impact on traffic conditions and the mobility of roadway systems. The traffic impacts of work zones could significantly vary due to several interacting factors such as work zone factors (work zone location and layout, length of the closure, work zone speed, intensity, and daily active hours); traffic factors (percentage of heavy vehicles, highway speed limit, capacity, mobility, flow, density, congestion, and occupancy); road factors (number of total lanes, number of open lanes, and pavement grade and condition); temporal factors (e.g., year, season, month, weekday, daytime, and darkness); weather conditions (rainy, sunny, and snowy); and spatial factors (road lane width, proximity, and number of ramps). Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) is continuously collecting and storing project-related data. Due to the significant impact of work zones on traffic conditions, they are interested in evaluating the impacts of work zone attributes on mobility and traffic conditions of roadway systems within the state of Utah. Such an analysis will help the UDOT personnel better understand and plan for more efficient work zone operations, select the most effective traffic management systems for work zones, and assess the hidden costs of construction operations at work zones. To help UDOT address this problem, we propose a robust, deep neural network (DNN) model capable of evaluating the impacts of the factors mentioned earlier on the mobility conditions of Utah roadway systems. DNNs can capture all the relationships between input variables and output compared to traditional machine learning algorithms. The results of this project show that work zone features have an important effect on the traffic condition. In the end, the performance of the model is evaluated using three different measures, including R2 score, RMSE, and MAE. Comparing the measurement to previously conducted research, it is the first study that has attempted to investigate the effect of work zone features on hourly traffic volume

A novel ensemble method for electric vehicle power consumption forecasting: Application to the Spanish system

The use of electric vehicle across the world has become one of the most challenging issues for environmental policies. The galloping climate change and the expected running out of fossil fuels turns the use of such non-polluting cars into a priority for most developed countries. However, such a use has led to major concerns to power companies, since they must adapt their generation to a new scenario, in which electric vehicles will dramatically modify the curve of generation. In this paper, a novel approach based on ensemble learning is proposed. In particular, ARIMA, GARCH and PSF algorithms' performances are used to forecast the electric vehicle power consumption in Spain. It is worth noting that the studied time series of consumption is non-stationary and adds difficulties to the forecasting process. Thus, an ensemble is proposed by dynamically weighting all algorithms over time. The proposal presented has been implemented for a real case, in particular, at the Spanish Control Centre for the Electric Vehicle. The performance of the approach is assessed by means of WAPE, showing robust and promising results for this research field.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad Proyectos ENE2016-77650-R, PCIN-2015-04 y TIN2017-88209-C2-R