Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package

We introduce the \texttt{pyunicorn} (Pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network theory and nonlinear time series analysis. \texttt{pyunicorn} is a fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics or network surrogates. Additionally, \texttt{pyunicorn} provides insights into the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), recurrence networks, visibility graphs and construction of surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology.Comment: 28 pages, 17 figure

Disentangling different types of El Ni\~no episodes by evolving climate network analysis

Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network approach for characterizing the evolving correlation structure of the Earth's climate system based on reanalysis data of surface air temperatures. We provide a detailed study on the temporal variability of several global climate network characteristics. Based on a simple conceptual view on red climate networks (i.e., networks with a comparably low number of edges), we give a thorough interpretation of our evolving climate network characteristics, which allows a functional discrimination between recently recognized different types of El Ni\~no episodes. Our analysis provides deep insights into the Earth's climate system, particularly its global response to strong volcanic eruptions and large-scale impacts of different phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Comment: 20 pages, 12 figure

Bistability through triadic closure

We propose and analyse a class of evolving network models suitable for describing a dynamic topological structure. Applications include telecommunication, on-line social behaviour and information processing in neuroscience. We model the evolving network as a discrete time Markov chain, and study a very general framework where, conditioned on the current state, edges appear or disappear independently at the next timestep. We show how to exploit symmetries in the microscopic, localized rules in order to obtain conjugate classes of random graphs that simplify analysis and calibration of a model. Further, we develop a mean field theory for describing network evolution. For a simple but realistic scenario incorporating the triadic closure effect that has been empirically observed by social scientists (friends of friends tend to become friends), the mean field theory predicts bistable dynamics, and computational results confirm this prediction. We also discuss the calibration issue for a set of real cell phone data, and find support for a stratified model, where individuals are assigned to one of two distinct groups having different within-group and across-group dynamics

On the Role of Social Identity and Cohesion in Characterizing Online Social Communities

Two prevailing theories for explaining social group or community structure are cohesion and identity. The social cohesion approach posits that social groups arise out of an aggregation of individuals that have mutual interpersonal attraction as they share common characteristics. These characteristics can range from common interests to kinship ties and from social values to ethnic backgrounds. In contrast, the social identity approach posits that an individual is likely to join a group based on an intrinsic self-evaluation at a cognitive or perceptual level. In other words group members typically share an awareness of a common category membership. In this work we seek to understand the role of these two contrasting theories in explaining the behavior and stability of social communities in Twitter. A specific focal point of our work is to understand the role of these theories in disparate contexts ranging from disaster response to socio-political activism. We extract social identity and social cohesion features-of-interest for large scale datasets of five real-world events and examine the effectiveness of such features in capturing behavioral characteristics and the stability of groups. We also propose a novel measure of social group sustainability based on the divergence in group discussion. Our main findings are: 1) Sharing of social identities (especially physical location) among group members has a positive impact on group sustainability, 2) Structural cohesion (represented by high group density and low average shortest path length) is a strong indicator of group sustainability, and 3) Event characteristics play a role in shaping group sustainability, as social groups in transient events behave differently from groups in events that last longer

Learning Opposites with Evolving Rules

The idea of opposition-based learning was introduced 10 years ago. Since then a noteworthy group of researchers has used some notions of oppositeness to improve existing optimization and learning algorithms. Among others, evolutionary algorithms, reinforcement agents, and neural networks have been reportedly extended into their opposition-based version to become faster and/or more accurate. However, most works still use a simple notion of opposites, namely linear (or type- I) opposition, that for each $x\in[a,b]$ assigns its opposite as $\breve{x}_I=a+b-x$. This, of course, is a very naive estimate of the actual or true (non-linear) opposite $\breve{x}_{II}$, which has been called type-II opposite in literature. In absence of any knowledge about a function $y=f(\mathbf{x})$ that we need to approximate, there seems to be no alternative to the naivety of type-I opposition if one intents to utilize oppositional concepts. But the question is if we can receive some level of accuracy increase and time savings by using the naive opposite estimate $\breve{x}_I$ according to all reports in literature, what would we be able to gain, in terms of even higher accuracies and more reduction in computational complexity, if we would generate and employ true opposites? This work introduces an approach to approximate type-II opposites using evolving fuzzy rules when we first perform opposition mining. We show with multiple examples that learning true opposites is possible when we mine the opposites from the training data to subsequently approximate $\breve{x}_{II}=f(\mathbf{x},y)$.Comment: Accepted for publication in The 2015 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE 2015), August 2-5, 2015, Istanbul, Turke