Simulation models of technological innovation: A Review

The use of simulation modelling techniques in studies of technological innovation dates back to Nelson and Winter''s 1982 book "An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change" and is an area which has been steadily expanding ever since. Four main issues are identified in reviewing the key contributions that have been made to this burgeoning literature. Firstly, a key driver in the construction of computer simulations has been the desire to develop more complicated theoretical models capable of dealing with the complex phenomena characteristic of technological innovation. Secondly, no single model captures all of the dimensions and stylised facts of innovative learning. Indeed this paper argues that one can usefully distinguish between the various contributions according to the particular dimensions of the learning process which they explore. To this end the paper develops a taxonomy which usefully distinguishes between these dimensions and also clarifies the quite different perspectives underpinning the contributions made by mainstream economists and non-mainstream, neo-Schumpeterian economists. This brings us to a third point highlighted in the paper. The character of simulation models which are developed are heavily influenced by the generic research questions of these different schools of thought. Finally, attention is drawn to an important distinction between the process of learning and adaptation within a static environment, and dynamic environments in which the introduction of new artefacts and patterns of behaviour change the selective pressure faced by agents. We show that modellers choosing to explore one or other of these settings reveal their quite different conceptual understandings of "technological innovation".economics of technology ;

Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin

Using the environmental decision support system DANUBIA, we analyze the effects ofclimate change on industry and compare the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies.The observed area covers Germany and Austria up to 2025. Since the main effects ofclimate change in this region are expected to be caused through changes in the watercycle,we place a special focus on the exemplary region of the upper Danube catchmentarea. Industry is the main regional user of water resources. Water is an essential productionfactor and is used in almost every production process of a manufactured good. We applyestimates of regional production functions, based on AFiD-panel micro-data for Germany,to calibrate regional industrial production and water usage within DANUBIA. Thus, weare able to simulate region-specific effects of climate change and the impact of socialscenarios using an unprecedented model of reciprocal influences of a huge network ofinterdisciplinary research areas. Simulation results show wide regional differences inproduction site reactions as well as between differing scenarios. Comparing scenarios ofmoderate and serious climate change, we are able to illustrate the severe environmentaleffects in some regions and to determine considerable economic effects on regionaleconomic growth.Environmental decision support system, climate change, water-cycle, river basin management

Modelling Fresh Strawberry Supply "From-Farm-to-Fork" as a Complex Adaptive Network

 The purpose of this study is to model and thereby enable simulation of the complete business entity of fresh food supply. A case narrative of fresh strawberry supply provides basis for this modelling. Lamming et al. (2000) point to the importance of discerning industry-specific product features (or particularities) regarding managing supply networks when discussing elements in "an initial classification of a supply network" while Fisher (1997) and Christopher et al. (2006, 2009) point to the lack of adopting SCM models to variations in products and market types as an important source of SCM failure. In this study we have chosen to move along a research path towards developing an adapted approach to model end-to-end fresh food supply influenced by a combination of SCM, system dynamics and complex adaptive network thinking...

Using heat demand prediction to optimise Virtual Power Plant production capacity

In the coming decade a strong trend towards distributed electricity generation (microgeneration) is expected. Micro-generators are small appliances that generate electricity (and heat) at the kilowatt level, which allows them to be installed in households. By combining a group of micro-generators, a Virtual Power Plant can be formed. The electricity market/network requires a VPP control system to be fast, scalable and reliable. It should be able to adjust the production quickly, handle in the order of millions of micro-generators and it should ensure the required production is really produced by the fleet of microgenerators. When using micro Combined Heat and Power microgenerators, the electricity production is determined by heat demand. In this paper we propose a VPP control system design using learning systems to maximise the economical benefits of the microCHP appliances. Furthermore, ways to test our design are\ud described