3,168 research outputs found

    Provably Secure Decisions based on Potentially Malicious Information

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    There are various security-critical decisions routinely made, on the basis of information provided by peers: routing messages, user reports, sensor data, navigational information, blockchain updates, etc. Jury theorems were proposed in sociology to make decisions based on information from peers, which assume peers may be mistaken with some probability. We focus on attackers in a system, which manifest as peers that strategically report fake information to manipulate decision making. We define the property of robustness: a lower bound probability of deciding correctly, regardless of what information attackers provide. When peers are independently selected, we propose an optimal, robust decision mechanism called Most Probable Realisation (MPR). When peer collusion affects source selection, we prove that generally it is NP-hard to find an optimal decision scheme. We propose multiple heuristic decision schemes that can achieve optimality for some collusion scenarios

    Agent-based Modeling And Market Microstructure

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    In most modern financial markets, traders express their preferences for assets by making orders. These orders are either executed if a counterparty is willing to match them or collected in a priority queue, called a limit order book. Such markets are said to adopt an order-driven trading mechanism. A key question in this domain is to model and analyze the strategic behavior of market participants, in response to different definitions of the trading mechanism (e.g., the priority queue changed from the continuous double auctions to the frequent call market). The objective is to design financial markets where pernicious behavior is minimized.The complex dynamics of market activities are typically studied via agent-based modeling (ABM) methods, enriched by Empirical Game-Theoretic Analysis (EGTA) to compute equilibria amongst market players and highlight the market behavior (also known as market microstructure) at equilibrium. This thesis contributes to this research area by evaluating the robustness of this approach and providing results to compare existing trading mechanisms and propose more advanced designs.In Chapter 4, we investigate the equilibrium strategy profiles, including their induced market performance, and their robustness to different simulation parameters. For two mainstream trading mechanisms, continuous double auctions (CDAs) and frequent call markets (FCMs), we find that EGTA is needed for solving the game as pure strategies are not a good approximation of the equilibrium. Moreover, EGTA gives generally sound and robust solutions regarding different market and model setups, with the notable exception of agents’ risk attitudes. We also consider heterogeneous EGTA, a more realistic generalization of EGTA whereby traders can modify their strategies during the simulation, and show that fixed strategies lead to sufficiently good analyses, especially taking the computation cost into consideration.After verifying the reliability of the ABM and EGTA methods, we follow this research methodology to study the impact of two widely adopted and potentially malicious trading strategies: spoofing and submission of iceberg orders. In Chapter 5, we study the effects of spoofing attacks on CDA and FCM markets. We let one spoofer (agent playing the spoofing strategy) play with other strategic agents and demonstrate that while spoofing may be profitable in both market models, it has less impact on FCMs than on CDAs. We also explore several FCM mechanism designs to help curb this type of market manipulation even further. In Chapter 6, we study the impact of iceberg orders on the price and order flow dynamics in financial markets. We find that the volume of submitted orders significantly affects the strategy choice of the other agents and the market performance. In general, when agents observe a large volume order, they tend to speculate instead of providing liquidity. In terms of market performance, both efficiency and liquidity will be harmed. We show that while playing the iceberg-order strategy can alleviate the problem caused by the high-volume orders, submitting a large enough order and attracting speculators is better than taking the risk of having fewer trades executed with iceberg orders.We conclude from Chapters 5 and 6 that FCMs have some exciting features when compared with CDAs and focus on the design of trading mechanisms in Chapter 7. We verify that CDAs constitute fertile soil for predatory behavior and toxic order flows and that FCMs address the latency arbitrage opportunities built in those markets. This chapter studies the extent to which adaptive rules to define the length of the clearing intervals — that might move in sync with the market fundamentals — affect the performance of frequent call markets. We show that matching orders in accordance with these rules can increase efficiency and selfish traders’ surplus in a variety of market conditions. In so doing, our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the flexibility granted by adaptive call markets

    Multidisciplinary perspectives on Artificial Intelligence and the law

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    This open access book presents an interdisciplinary, multi-authored, edited collection of chapters on Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) and the Law. AI technology has come to play a central role in the modern data economy. Through a combination of increased computing power, the growing availability of data and the advancement of algorithms, AI has now become an umbrella term for some of the most transformational technological breakthroughs of this age. The importance of AI stems from both the opportunities that it offers and the challenges that it entails. While AI applications hold the promise of economic growth and efficiency gains, they also create significant risks and uncertainty. The potential and perils of AI have thus come to dominate modern discussions of technology and ethics – and although AI was initially allowed to largely develop without guidelines or rules, few would deny that the law is set to play a fundamental role in shaping the future of AI. As the debate over AI is far from over, the need for rigorous analysis has never been greater. This book thus brings together contributors from different fields and backgrounds to explore how the law might provide answers to some of the most pressing questions raised by AI. An outcome of the Católica Research Centre for the Future of Law and its interdisciplinary working group on Law and Artificial Intelligence, it includes contributions by leading scholars in the fields of technology, ethics and the law.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Learning recommender systems from biased user interactions

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    Recommender systems have been widely deployed to help users quickly find what they need from a collection of items. Predominant recommendation methods rely on supervised learning models to predict user ratings on items or the probabilities of users interacting with items. In addition, reinforcement learning models are crucial in improving long-term user engagement within recommender systems. In practice, both of these recommendation methods are commonly trained on logged user interactions and, therefore, subject to bias present in logged user interactions. This thesis concerns complex forms of bias in real-world user behaviors and aims to mitigate the effect of bias on reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods. The first part of the thesis consists of two research chapters, each dedicated to tackling a specific form of bias: dynamic selection bias and multifactorial bias. To mitigate the effect of dynamic selection bias and multifactorial bias, we propose a bias propensity estimation method for each. By incorporating the results from the bias propensity estimation methods, the widely used inverse propensity scoring-based debiasing method can be extended to correct for the corresponding bias. The second part of the thesis consists of two chapters that concern the effect of bias on reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods. Its first chapter focuses on mitigating the effect of bias on simulators, which enables the learning and evaluation of reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods. Its second chapter further explores different state encoders for reinforcement learning-based recommendation methods when learning and evaluating with the proposed debiased simulator

    Climate Change and Critical Agrarian Studies

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    Climate change is perhaps the greatest threat to humanity today and plays out as a cruel engine of myriad forms of injustice, violence and destruction. The effects of climate change from human-made emissions of greenhouse gases are devastating and accelerating; yet are uncertain and uneven both in terms of geography and socio-economic impacts. Emerging from the dynamics of capitalism since the industrial revolution — as well as industrialisation under state-led socialism — the consequences of climate change are especially profound for the countryside and its inhabitants. The book interrogates the narratives and strategies that frame climate change and examines the institutionalised responses in agrarian settings, highlighting what exclusions and inclusions result. It explores how different people — in relation to class and other co-constituted axes of social difference such as gender, race, ethnicity, age and occupation — are affected by climate change, as well as the climate adaptation and mitigation responses being implemented in rural areas. The book in turn explores how climate change – and the responses to it - affect processes of social differentiation, trajectories of accumulation and in turn agrarian politics. Finally, the book examines what strategies are required to confront climate change, and the underlying political-economic dynamics that cause it, reflecting on what this means for agrarian struggles across the world. The 26 chapters in this volume explore how the relationship between capitalism and climate change plays out in the rural world and, in particular, the way agrarian struggles connect with the huge challenge of climate change. Through a huge variety of case studies alongside more conceptual chapters, the book makes the often-missing connection between climate change and critical agrarian studies. The book argues that making the connection between climate and agrarian justice is crucial

    Fairness-aware Machine Learning in Educational Data Mining

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    Fairness is an essential requirement of every educational system, which is reflected in a variety of educational activities. With the extensive use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques in education, researchers and educators can analyze educational (big) data and propose new (technical) methods in order to support teachers, students, or administrators of (online) learning systems in the organization of teaching and learning. Educational data mining (EDM) is the result of the application and development of data mining (DM), and ML techniques to deal with educational problems, such as student performance prediction and student grouping. However, ML-based decisions in education can be based on protected attributes, such as race or gender, leading to discrimination of individual students or subgroups of students. Therefore, ensuring fairness in ML models also contributes to equity in educational systems. On the other hand, bias can also appear in the data obtained from learning environments. Hence, bias-aware exploratory educational data analysis is important to support unbiased decision-making in EDM. In this thesis, we address the aforementioned issues and propose methods that mitigate discriminatory outcomes of ML algorithms in EDM tasks. Specifically, we make the following contributions: We perform bias-aware exploratory analysis of educational datasets using Bayesian networks to identify the relationships among attributes in order to understand bias in the datasets. We focus the exploratory data analysis on features having a direct or indirect relationship with the protected attributes w.r.t. prediction outcomes. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of the sufficiency of various group fairness measures in predictive models for student performance prediction problems. A variety of experiments on various educational datasets with different fairness measures are performed to provide users with a broad view of unfairness from diverse aspects. We deal with the student grouping problem in collaborative learning. We introduce the fair-capacitated clustering problem that takes into account cluster fairness and cluster cardinalities. We propose two approaches, namely hierarchical clustering and partitioning-based clustering, to obtain fair-capacitated clustering. We introduce the multi-fair capacitated (MFC) students-topics grouping problem that satisfies students' preferences while ensuring balanced group cardinalities and maximizing the diversity of members regarding the protected attribute. We propose three approaches: a greedy heuristic approach, a knapsack-based approach using vanilla maximal 0-1 knapsack formulation, and an MFC knapsack approach based on group fairness knapsack formulation. In short, the findings described in this thesis demonstrate the importance of fairness-aware ML in educational settings. We show that bias-aware data analysis, fairness measures, and fairness-aware ML models are essential aspects to ensure fairness in EDM and the educational environment.Ministry of Science and Culture of Lower Saxony/LernMINT/51410078/E

    Spatial adaptive settlement systems in archaeology. Modelling long-term settlement formation from spatial micro interactions

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    Despite research history spanning more than a century, settlement patterns still hold a promise to contribute to the theories of large-scale processes in human history. Mostly they have been presented as passive imprints of past human activities and spatial interactions they shape have not been studied as the driving force of historical processes. While archaeological knowledge has been used to construct geographical theories of evolution of settlement there still exist gaps in this knowledge. Currently no theoretical framework has been adopted to explore them as spatial systems emerging from micro-choices of small population units. The goal of this thesis is to propose a conceptual model of adaptive settlement systems based on complex adaptive systems framework. The model frames settlement system formation processes as an adaptive system containing spatial features, information flows, decision making population units (agents) and forming cross scale feedback loops between location choices of individuals and space modified by their aggregated choices. The goal of the model is to find new ways of interpretation of archaeological locational data as well as closer theoretical integration of micro-level choices and meso-level settlement structures. The thesis is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is dedicated to conceptualisation of the general model based on existing literature and shows that settlement systems are inherently complex adaptive systems and therefore require tools of complexity science for causal explanations. The following chapters explore both empirical and theoretical simulated settlement patterns based dedicated to studying selected information flows and feedbacks in the context of the whole system. Second and third chapters explore the case study of the Stone Age settlement in Estonia comparing residential location choice principles of different periods. In chapter 2 the relation between environmental conditions and residential choice is explored statistically. The results confirm that the relation is significant but varies between different archaeological phenomena. In the third chapter hunter-fisher-gatherer and early agrarian Corded Ware settlement systems were compared spatially using inductive models. The results indicated a large difference in their perception of landscape regarding suitability for habitation. It led to conclusions that early agrarian land use significantly extended land use potential and provided a competitive spatial benefit. In addition to spatial differences, model performance was compared and the difference was discussed in the context of proposed adaptive settlement system model. Last two chapters present theoretical agent-based simulation experiments intended to study effects discussed in relation to environmental model performance and environmental determinism in general. In the fourth chapter the central place foragingmodel was embedded in the proposed model and resource depletion, as an environmental modification mechanism, was explored. The study excluded the possibility that mobility itself would lead to modelling effects discussed in the previous chapter. The purpose of the last chapter is the disentanglement of the complex relations between social versus human-environment interactions. The study exposed non-linear spatial effects expected population density can have on the system and the general robustness of environmental inductive models in archaeology to randomness and social effect. The model indicates that social interactions between individuals lead to formation of a group agency which is determined by the environment even if individual cognitions consider the environment insignificant. It also indicates that spatial configuration of the environment has a certain influence towards population clustering therefore providing a potential pathway to population aggregation. Those empirical and theoretical results showed the new insights provided by the complex adaptive systems framework. Some of the results, including the explanation of empirical results, required the conceptual model to provide a framework of interpretation

    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volume

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    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volum

    Revisiting the capitalization of public transport accessibility into residential land value: an empirical analysis drawing on Open Science

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    Background: The delivery and effective operation of public transport is fundamental for a for a transition to low-carbon emission transport systems’. However, many cities face budgetary challenges in providing and operating this type of infrastructure. Land value capture (LVC) instruments, aimed at recovering all or part of the land value uplifts triggered by actions other than the landowner, can alleviate some of this pressure. A key element of LVC lies in the increment in land value associated with a particular public action. Urban economic theory supports this idea and considers accessibility to be a core element for determining residential land value. Although the empirical literature assessing the relationship between land value increments and public transport infrastructure is vast, it often assumes homogeneous benefits and, therefore, overlooks relevant elements of accessibility. Advancements in the accessibility concept in the context of Open Science can ease the relaxation of such assumptions. Methods: This thesis draws on the case of Greater Mexico City between 2009 and 2019. It focuses on the effects of the main public transport network (MPTN) which is organised in seven temporal stages according to its expansion phases. The analysis incorporates location based accessibility measures to employment opportunities in order to assess the benefits of public transport infrastructure. It does so by making extensive use of the open-source software OpenTripPlanner for public transport route modelling (≈ 2.1 billion origin-destination routes). Potential capitalizations are assessed according to the hedonic framework. The property value data includes individual administrative mortgage records collected by the Federal Mortgage Society (≈ 800,000). The hedonic function is estimated using a variety of approaches, i.e. linear models, nonlinear models, multilevel models, and spatial multilevel models. These are estimated by the maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The study also examines possible spatial aggregation bias using alternative spatial aggregation schemes according to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) literature. Results: The accessibility models across the various temporal stages evidence the spatial heterogeneity shaped by the MPTN in combination with land use and the individual perception of residents. This highlights the need to transition from measures that focus on the characteristics of transport infrastructure to comprehensive accessibility measures which reflect such heterogeneity. The estimated hedonic function suggests a robust, positive, and significant relationship between MPTN accessibility and residential land value in all the modelling frameworks in the presence of a variety of controls. The residential land value increases between 3.6% and 5.7% for one additional standard deviation in MPTN accessibility to employment in the final set of models. The total willingness to pay (TWTP) is considerable, ranging from 0.7 to 1.5 times the equivalent of the capital costs of the bus rapid transit Line-7 of the Metrobús system. A sensitivity analysis shows that the hedonic model estimation is sensitive to the MAUP. In addition, the use of a post code zoning scheme produces the closest results compared to the smallest spatial analytical scheme (0.5 km hexagonal grid). Conclusion: The present thesis advances the discussion on the capitalization of public transport on residential land value by adopting recent contributions from the Open Science framework. Empirically, it fills a knowledge gap given the lack of literature around this topic in this area of study. In terms of policy, the findings support LVC as a mechanism of considerable potential. Regarding fee-based LVC instruments, there are fairness issues in relation to the distribution of charges or exactions to households that could be addressed using location based measures. Furthermore, the approach developed for this analysis serves as valuable guidance for identifying sites with large potential for the implementation of development based instruments, for instance land readjustments or the sale/lease of additional development rights
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