The Dictator and the Parties A Study on Policy Co-operation in Mineral Economies

This paper develops a game to study the possibility of co-operative behaviour in a situation where the political system is dominated by two strong, opportunistic parties competing in an economy highly dependent on the export of a commodity. Since a binding agreement as an external solution is unlikely to succeed due to the close association between the incumbent party and the government (the guardian), the paper explores the extent to which co-operation between political parties that alternate in office can rely on self-enforcing strategies to provide an internal solution. For appropriate values of the probability of re-election and the discount factor, it is possible to rely on reciprocity to sustain an early-stopping equilibrium. However, cooperation is undermined by low values of re-election probability out of current revenues and party myopia. In those circumstances, the self-policing solution might not be viable and an institutional response would be necessary. The game also sheds some light on the apparent paradox of situations in some mineral- rich democracies (such as the recent Venezuelan experience) where the enjoyment of considerable external revenues is followed by a period of economic stagnation, a deterioration of political stability, and the surge of a dictatorship threat.Political Economy, Non-cooperative games, Democracy, Mineral Economies, Venezuela

Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policies and Growth: Theory and Evidence from Germany, the UK and the US

In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and economic growth/fluctuations. The set-up is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of growth and endogenously chosen fiscal policy, in which two political parties can alternate in power. The party in office chooses jointly how much to tax and how to allocate its total expenditure between public consumption and production services. The main theoretical prediction is that forward-looking incumbents, with uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this lowers economic growth. The model is estimated using quarterly data for Germany, the UK and the US from 1960 to 1999. Our econometric results provide clear support for the main theoretical prediction. They also give plausible and significant estimates for the productivity of public production services, the weight which households place on public consumption services relative to private consumption and the time discount rate. Moreover, we find that changes in electoral uncertainty produce the longest lasting fluctuations in the European economies followed by the US.

Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policies & Growth: Theory and Evidence from Germany, the UK and the US

In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and economic growth/fluctuations. The set-up is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of growth and endogenously chosen fiscal policy, in which two political parties can alternate in power. The party in office chooses jointly how much to tax and how to allocate its total expenditure between public consumption and production services. The main theoretical prediction is that forward-looking incumbents, with uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this lowers economic growth. The model is estimated using quarterly data for Germany, the UK and the US from 1960 to 1999. Our econometric results provide clear support for the main theoretical prediction. They also give plausible and significant estimates for the productivity of public production services, the weight which households place on public consumption services relative to private consumption and the time discount rate. Moreover, we find that changes in electoral uncertainty produce the longest lasting fluctuations in the European economies followed by the US.political uncertainty, economic growth and fluctuations, optimal policy

Hyperbolic Discounting and Politics: The beneficial effects of bureaucrats

This paper introduces hyperbolic discounting into politics. In our model, politicians act according to the preferences of voters in order to be re-elected. As voters' preferences are dynamically inconsistent, the political process results in an allocation of the public budget that is distorted towards consumption ex- penditures. We show that this inefficiency is mitigated when the influence of bureaucrats who favour an excessive supply of public goods is taken into ac- count. Finally, we derive a positive relationship between the optimal level of a bureaucracy's influence and the relevance of long-term investments in a given policy area.Political Agency, Hyperbolic Discounting, Bureaucracy

Fiscal Policy, Rent Seeking and Growth under Electoral Uncertainty Theory and Evidence from the OECD

We construct a general equilibrium model of economic growth and optimally chosen fiscal policy, in which individuals compete with each other for a share of government spending and two political parties can alternate in power according to an exogenous reelection probability. The main prediction is that uncertainty about remaining in power results in increased fiscal spending, which in turn distorts incentives by pushing individuals away from productive work to rent-seeking activities; then distorted incentives hurt growth. This receives empirical support in a dataset of 25 OECD countries over the period 1982-1996. In particular, electoral uncertainty leads to larger government consumption shares in GDP, which in turn exert an adverse effect on the ICRG index measuring incentives and this is bad for growth. Actually, estimation by IV methods and confidence intervals that are robust to (potentially) weak instruments, reveal that OLS under-estimates the effects of government spending on rent extraction activities and of such activities on economic growth.Fiscal policy; rent seeking; economic growth; elections.

A Probabilistic Voting Model of Social Security: The Role of Myopic Agents

This paper investigates the political incentives for the design of social security policy in competitive democracies with both far-sighted and myopic households. The social security scheme depends on both a payroll tax rate which determines the size of the pension and a Bismarckian factor that represents its redistributive component. By considering a probabilistic voting setting of electoral competition, we analyze the political game between office-seeking politicians and self-interested citizens. Politicians can win the election by targeting the voters in each group by trading off the generosity and the redistribution degree of the public pension system. In the political equilibrium, the contribution rate is U-shaped with respect to the Bismarckian factor. Moreover, the equilibrium Bismarckian factor unambiguously decreases with the proportion of myopic agents, whereas the equilibrium payroll tax rate curve is U-shaped with respect to the proportion of myopic agents

An Overlapping Generations Model of Electoral Competition

This paper presents a dynamic model of political competition between two "parties" with different policy preferences. A "party" is explicitly modeled as a sequence of overlapping generations of candidates, all of whom face finite decision horizons. In general, there is a conflict between the interests of the individual policymakers and those of the "party" , which includes subsequent generations of candidates. We characterize this conflict and suggest a scheme of "intergenerational transfers" within the party which can resolve or mitigate this conflict. The paper shows how the "overlapping generations" model can be usefully applied to the political arena.

Credibility of fiscal policies and independent fiscal bodies

In this paper we address the problem of credibility in fiscal policy. In many instances fiscal policy as conducted by governments is not perceived as credible. The targets set forward by government are often not met and usually the divergence is on the negative side. Taxes are overestimated and spending is underestimated, leading to a deficit bias and growing indebtedness of governments. To enhance the credibility of fiscal policy several schemes are put forward. Most frequently used are fiscal rules that replace discretionary decision making. Fiscal rules however are difficult to sanction and although they can improve the quality of fiscal policy, they do not guarantee sound fiscal policy. Therefore it is sometimes suggested to install fiscal councils on top of the fiscal rules. Fiscal councils with tasks in forecasting and assessing fiscal policy have been and are being introduced in more and more countries. Some economists want to go further however and propose to establish fiscal councils with independent powers to conduct fiscal policy within the borderlines that parliament lays down. In this paper these tendencies are analyzed

I Will Survive: Capital Taxation, Voter Turnout and Time Inconsistency

This paper reconsiders the debate around the political determination of capital income taxes and explains why such taxes survive in most OECD countries. The political economy literature on redistributive politics (Persson and Tabellini 2003) emphasizes the role played by the lower class in the political arena: being labor more concentrated than capital, the majority of the population benefits by overtaxing capital and undertaxing labour. However, in reality, political participation (voting, lobbying, protesting etc.) is positively correlated with income. Therefore, a paradoxical result emerges: why do the upper class, who is politically more active and own most of the capital, still favour a positive capital tax? Hence, voters' income is not the sole relevant variable in the political determination of the capital tax. To reconcile this apparent puzzle, we propose a model that incorporates time inconsistency à la Laibson in individual preferences We show that time inconsistent individuals are politically more homogeneous (or “single-minded”) than far-sighted, and prefer to tax more capital income, instead of labor income, since accumulated saving are below the planned (and optimal) level and the distortionary effects of a higher capital tax are not only reduced but also delayed in time. We demonstrate that, since politicians find easier to please hyperbolic voters by proposing a tax policy that includes lower labor and higher capital taxes compared to an economy with only far sighted. Moreover, we show that, as the proportion of time inconsistent individuals in the population increases, the tax policy becomes more and more biased towards capital taxation.Political Economy, Multidimensional Voting, Capital Taxation, Redistribution, Hyperbolic Discounting