Notion of Neutrosophic Risk and Financial Markets Prediction

Presenting an application of the neutrosophic logic in the prediction of the financial markets

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Shifting boundaries and new technologies: a case study in the UK banking sector.

This paper describes case study based research on the use of innovative computer-based decision support systems introduced into corporate lending processes in a major UK bank. It describes how the new technology was implicated in shifting boundaries: within the sector as a whole and in specific organizational de-layering; between local/global dimensions of the loans process; and in the status of expertise and personal/professional risk. The case study is connected to broader debates in IS and social transformation through an analysis that relates aspects of the empirical material to themes from social theories of reflexive modernization. Some implications and conclusions are drawn for both the banking sector and IS research.

Foxes in the Henhouse: An Exploratory Inquiry into Financial Markets Fraud

Conventional understandings of fraud are organized around the fraud triangle first developed in the 1950s by Cressey. This conceptual device remains central in our pedagogy and research on this especially timely topic. As long as fraud is imagined to be not much different than a stereotypical act by a single individual out of financial desperation and impulsiveness, the fraud triangle provides a reasonably powerful conceptual organization. However, when applied to abuses that occur in highly organized financial markets, its application takes on new meanings that push the boundaries of its usefulness. Using interviews with traders and other securities market participants, this paper concludes that the prospects for ill-gotten gain are much more systematic and the product of incomplete regulation

"But can't we get the same thing with a standard model?" Rationalizing bounded-rationality models

This paper discusses a common criticism of economic models that depart from the standard rational-choice paradigm - namely, that the phenomena addressed by such models can be “rationalized” by some standard model. I criticize this criterion for evaluating bounded-rationality models. Using a market model with boundedly rational consumers due to Spiegler (2006a) as a test case, I show that even when it initially appears that a bounded-rationality model can be rationalized by a standard model, the rationalizing models tend to come with unwarranted “extra baggage”. I conclude that we should impose a greater burden of proof on rationalizations that are offered in refutation of such models

Assessing and reducing product portfolio complexity in the pharmaceutical industry

Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division; in conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-66).Overly complex product portfolios lead to inefficient use of resources and limit an organization's ability to react quickly to changing market dynamics. The challenges of reducing portfolio complexity are defining excess complexity, identifying it in the portfolio, and removing it while still delivering value to customers. Novartis Pharmaceuticals, in agreement with the prevalent operational excellence culture, is exploring complexity reduction as a mechanism to reduce waste, costs, and inventory levels. This thesis proposes the use of a comprehensive complexity reduction approach which targets both large and tail-end products for rationalization. The first complexity reduction focus area, redundant product rationalization, targets medium to large stock keeping units that do not directly satisfy a unique customer requirement. Removing redundant products has two benefits. First, larger products consume more resources, so the cost savings associated with removing a large redundant product are greater than that of smaller products. Second, sales levels will be preserved, as the demand for the rationalized product will shift to the remaining products that still meet the customer requirement in question. The second focus area is the more traditional tail-end pruning. By removing smaller, less profitable products and product groups, critical resources can be reallocated to more profitable products or new product launches. Novartis has piloted and partially implemented this approach with impressive results. With the support of influential leaders across all functions, Novartis is expecting a reduction of 15% of the portfolio in terms of number of finished product stock keeping units and a reduction of up to $22 million USD in inventory value. Other benefits include improvements in demand forecast accuracy, production write-offs, asset utilization, and replenishment lead times.by Kevin M. Leiter.S.M.M.B.A

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Forwarding the frequent usage of complex processes and the big volume of information, it is imperative to manage the automatic circuit of the document flow in a company activity. The main advantage of such a system consist in document waiting to be proce