Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

Cuckoo Search Inspired Hybridization of the Nelder-Mead Simplex Algorithm Applied to Optimization of Photovoltaic Cells

A new hybridization of the Cuckoo Search (CS) is developed and applied to optimize multi-cell solar systems; namely multi-junction and split spectrum cells. The new approach consists of combining the CS with the Nelder-Mead method. More precisely, instead of using single solutions as nests for the CS, we use the concept of a simplex which is used in the Nelder-Mead algorithm. This makes it possible to use the flip operation introduces in the Nelder-Mead algorithm instead of the Levy flight which is a standard part of the CS. In this way, the hybridized algorithm becomes more robust and less sensitive to parameter tuning which exists in CS. The goal of our work was to optimize the performance of multi-cell solar systems. Although the underlying problem consists of the minimization of a function of a relatively small number of parameters, the difficulty comes from the fact that the evaluation of the function is complex and only a small number of evaluations is possible. In our test, we show that the new method has a better performance when compared to similar but more compex hybridizations of Nelder-Mead algorithm using genetic algorithms or particle swarm optimization on standard benchmark functions. Finally, we show that the new method outperforms some standard meta-heuristics for the problem of interest